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WTI Crude Oil (TRENDSURFING - with the help of the model)

  • #161
  • Mar 18, 2020 5:05am Mar 18, 2020 5:05am
Quoting Hutch
Oh well another day another down day for oil. $1.64 from yesterday almost 6%. I think we will see $25 soon. {image}
We are already pass that, it is crazy... Will wait another week tops than I am jumping on the SLIDE, if there will be any left since this price is crazy!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #162
  • Mar 18, 2020 2:10pm Mar 18, 2020 2:10pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} We are already pass that, it is crazy... Will wait another week tops than I am jumping on the SLIDE, if there will be any left since this price is crazy!

I thought that the lunacy would stop around $25 but I was so wrong since the price flew through that price to reach a low of $20.26 today before recovering to $22.56. Notwithstanding this is a decrease of $4.31 or 16% from yesterday's close.



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  • #163
  • Mar 19, 2020 12:05pm Mar 19, 2020 12:05pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} I thought that the lunacy would stop around $25 but I was so wrong since the price flew through that price to reach a low of $20.26 today before recovering to $22.56. Notwithstanding this is a decrease of $4.31 or 16% from yesterday's close. {image}
Yea man, total disconect from the market.. So awaiting critical data from the first days of next week and then I will decide to either KEEP following the model or to CORONA SURF it down to wherever it wants to go... and won't assume any bottom But need it a few (working days) first.. just to confirm/reject my thesis or to see if still total disconnect from the market is expected...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #164
  • Mar 19, 2020 3:14pm Mar 19, 2020 3:14pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yea man, total disconect from the market.. So awaiting critical data from the first days of next week and then I will decide to either KEEP following the model or to CORONA SURF it down to wherever it wants to go... and won't assume any bottom But need it a few (working days) first.. just to confirm/reject my thesis or to see if still total disconnect from the market is expected...
Well your model might be right with WTI going up by $2.82 or 12.5% today to the critical level of $25 Time will tell if sanity is taking hold of this crazy market
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  • #165
  • Mar 19, 2020 3:18pm Mar 19, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Well your model might be right with WTI going up by $2.82 or 12.5% today to the critical level of $25 Time will tell if sanity is taking hold of this crazy market {image}
Yeah, tnx... I am done trading for the week and will see if there is any connection to the market, between my model and market(s) anyway... So stay tuned, have to have (either) answer by 24-25th of MAR, I am sure of it. But atm.. the summary is: #disconnect or #clueless
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #166
  • Mar 20, 2020 3:12am Mar 20, 2020 3:12am
Holy crap, raising good! Let's see if it holds.. Don't see why not but will wait a few days into next week, just to be "sure" since we have seen many (unbelievable) surprises in the last weeks ;D
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #167
  • Mar 20, 2020 2:11pm Mar 20, 2020 2:11pm
Quoting auricforecas
Holy crap, raising good! Let's see if it holds.. Don't see why not but will wait a few days into next week, just to be "sure" since we have seen many (unbelievable) surprises in the last weeks ;D
Sorry but it did not hold. WTI lost $2.04 from yesterday's close to $23.34. Maybe we will see a consolidation between $22 and $26.
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  • #168
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:56am Mar 21, 2020 7:56am
Quoting auricforecas
Holy crap, raising good! Let's see if it holds.. Don't see why not but will wait a few days into next week, just to be "sure" since we have seen many (unbelievable) surprises in the last weeks ;D
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Sorry but it did not hold. WTI lost $2.04 from yesterday's close to $23.34. Maybe we will see a consolidation between $22 and $26. {image}
Yup, hence, will wait first few days of next week to see when this is going... Hope there will be some "clues"
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #169
  • Mar 23, 2020 11:56am Mar 23, 2020 11:56am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} {quote} Yup, hence, will wait first few days of next week to see when this is going... Hope there will be some "clues"
The shale oil industry thinks that the oil price collapse means that the economy will collapse also. I don't think that this would happen since lower oil prices is normally good for the economy. What do you think?
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  • #170
  • Mar 23, 2020 2:06pm Mar 23, 2020 2:06pm
It sure looks like WTI is on a consolidation mode the price hardly moving from Friday's close
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  • #171
  • Mar 23, 2020 2:33pm Mar 23, 2020 2:33pm
Quoting Hutch
It sure looks like WTI is on a consolidation mode the price hardly moving from Friday's close {image}
Second part of the week will most probably give me some clues for either direction Still awaiting to jump on the BUY side aka RIDING the bull
BUT! am ready to admit my bet is wrong and wouldn't mind to earn with shorting, sliding down to wherever it can go.. seems there is no firm bottom anymore
So awaiting for more/critical data, specially for THU, FRI
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #172
  • Mar 24, 2020 2:31pm Mar 24, 2020 2:31pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Second part of the week will most probably give me some clues for either direction Still awaiting to jump on the BUY side aka RIDING the bull BUT! am ready to admit my bet is wrong and wouldn't mind to earn with shorting, sliding down to wherever it can go.. seems there is no firm bottom anymore So awaiting for more/critical data, specially for THU, FRI
Looks like WTI is really in a consolidation mode gaining less than $1 in the last two days. This is good for scalpers but it's way too dangerous to be traded using my D1 strategy.
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  • #173
  • Mar 25, 2020 2:04pm Mar 25, 2020 2:04pm
Four days in a row and WTI hardly moved the consolidation mode continues
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  • #174
  • Mar 26, 2020 2:04pm Mar 26, 2020 2:04pm
Consolidation continues in earnest although $1.15 down from yesterday
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  • #175
  • Mar 27, 2020 2:23am Mar 27, 2020 2:23am
Very puzzling market atm... Will make my opinion in the first 3 days of next week and probably enter the market LIVE again on THU 02APR2020.
It is very puzzling atm... I still expect to jump on the BUY side but this needs to be confirmed.. I am down for either side as long as the money/profits are there.. but have to be at least somewhat "certain" before throwing money into it.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #176
  • Mar 27, 2020 4:33am Mar 27, 2020 4:33am
Oil is being fed into market and consumption ia dropping day by day with every country going for lock down. With cases of covid-19 being inc world wide and in america. I perwonlly belive the ratio of demand vs supply is still in favour of bearish outlook.. And i dont see oil ralling back towards 25$ or above unless aome positive news from opec+ or russia or covid-19 decreases. My personl view is oil will fluctuate between 20$ to max 24$ in next week too under no exceptional news...
  • #177
  • Mar 27, 2020 8:07am Mar 27, 2020 8:07am
Quoting Sufi1985
Oil is being fed into market and consumption ia dropping day by day with every country going for lock down. With cases of covid-19 being inc world wide and in america. I perwonlly belive the ratio of demand vs supply is still in favour of bearish outlook.. And i dont see oil ralling back towards 25$ or above unless aome positive news from opec+ or russia or covid-19 decreases. My personl view is oil will fluctuate between 20$ to max 24$ in next week too under no exceptional news...
Agreed man.. I would also add that I do expect some rather defining/exceptional news next week (just not sure for which direction)... Based on them, will decide which position will I take on WTI for the next month(s)!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #178
  • Mar 27, 2020 2:12pm Mar 27, 2020 2:12pm
WTI down by $1.32 today but the only pattern that I can see is that it's still consolidating.
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  • #179
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:23pm Mar 28, 2020 10:23pm
Quoting Hutch
WTI down by $1.32 today but the only pattern that I can see is that it's still consolidating. {image}
Its look like consolidating because 20$ is a big support.... But one news against crude oil and we will see 20$ broken.... So lets see
  • #180
  • Mar 30, 2020 2:14am Mar 30, 2020 2:14am
Quoting Sufi1985
{quote} Its look like consolidating because 20$ is a big support.... But one news against crude oil and we will see 20$ broken.... So lets see
Yup, 20 is very strong support... I am waiting the right opportunity to enter the BUY, because it looks a steal at this prices... Awaiting my (final) confirmation... Might happen later this week, specially 02-03APR... But! If it doesn't happen, might wait some time because "no trading"=trading, at least in my book... Also, I don't mind entering SHORT, even at this prices, but would have to be almost really sure to enter SHORT at this prices, because potential BEAR traps are BIG

Awaiting vital data later week and will report...
Can you afford to take that chance?
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