EURUSD - From Here to There

I have decided to continue posting updates on this thread. How long I continue to do so will be determined by how supportive you are.

Trading isn't black and white. Sometimes things happen that can throw everything out of order. Have we not seen this as a result of the COVID 19 pandemic? Indeed!

Even proven strategies have failed under such circumstances. It doesn't make you a bad trader because you get caught off-guard in this way. And it doesn't mean you should trash your strategy.

It simply means you need to learn to adapt to current market conditions, and make changes where necessary.

Fore example, you might be accustomed to use a tight stop loss. But is it wise to do so when the market is as volatile as it has been lately? A tight stop loss is almost guaranteed to turn into a loser in such circumstances. You might as well put your money into your broker's pocket if you are going to trade like that.

I have found that using the pip amount for the Average Daily Range makes a good stop loss. But to each their own. It's up to you to decide how you want to trade. It's not up to me or anyone else. You are the one who must live with the consequences of your decisions as a trader.

So be sure to count the cost, because it can be a heavy one if you are not careful!

Always strive to better yourself. Learning from your mistakes is critical to your success as a trader. It's what sets you apart from a person who doesn't learn from his mistakes. It's the difference between having the mentality of a winner or having the mentality of a loser.

Even winners lose at times, but they get up and keep moving forward while losers keep fishing for excuses to stay where they are.

What do you want to be? A winner or a loser? If you want to be a winner, then think like a winner!

Where to look for possible short entries?

Price may return to the 1.08244 - 1.0791 range and then continue to go down.

If price closes above 1.08244, then the next supply zone is at 1.09446 - 1.08983.

Unless market conditions change, I am bearish on EURUSD.

You have your approach to sharing trading ideas and I have mine. Don't tell me what to do.

I don't just throw charts up and expect people to figure out what is going on.

I give details to help people see how I arrive at conclusions and how I do Technical Analysis. It is an educational approach. Not a signal service.

The Order Book

Orange: pending sell orders
Blue: pending buy orders

As you can see from the image below, there are far more pending sell orders than pending buy orders. Who do you think will prevail? Image: Source

depends? if all want to sell and no one there to buy... you tell me what will happen if price goes up? :-)

Oh, there are a lot more buyers. But guess where they are? Most of them are currently trapped. I only showed you one half of the Order Book.

The question that remains is how did all these buyers get trapped? Sentiment is the answer!

I warned people about this HERE. I wonder if anyone was listening?

I looked at the "about us" page, but couldn't really tell. It looks like this a ln independent site that provides paid info; correct? If so, do you know from what sites the data is derived? From all my reading, the global liquidity makes it almost impossible to get an accurate read on buy/sell/depth/etc.

Read their Blog posts. There aren't many, and they are worth reading. You will find answers there. You may have to use Google to translate some of them.

Also, their Current Ratio indicator can help you get a general idea of their sources.

And if you have any other questions, you can always write to them.

Just so you know, I have no affiliation with them. I only use their tools.

Thanks

BEWARE of Bull Traps!

EUR bulls are incredibly stubborn. They can potentially drive EURUSD up to the 1.09312 - 1.09794 price range. But ultimately, EUR is a failing currency, just like the rest of them. Our current monetary system is a farce.

Stick to YOUR Plan!

These forums can sometimes cause one to have doubts about his or her trading plan. It's easy to allow negative or even overly optimistic ideas to interfere with what you have decided to do (your plan).

I know! I have been wounded by such talk. I allowed the thoughts of others to get into my head and cause me to doubt myself. And I lost because of it. Had I stuck to my plan, I could have won. And even if I lost as a result of following my plan, it would have been on me. I can live with that.

But it is unacceptable to have a plan and let some know-it-all screw things up, because he or she has cast shadows of doubt over your plan and your capabilities.

Trade YOUR plan. If it fails, take a closer look at what happened, and ask yourself what you could have done better, if anything, to avoid such an outcome. Thus, you will learn from your mistakes and improve your strategy over time.

Don't let the thoughts of others mess things up for you. It's your money you're putting on the line, not theirs. They have nothing to lose when you suffer a loss. So they don't care. But you should care. It's your money!

This is why I think signal services suck. They only teach you to be dependent on the thoughts of other traders. You never learn to walk on your own. Even if the signals are reliable, eventually they won't be there anymore. And then what will you do?

You have to learn to trade on your own. Develop your own strategy, and stick to your plan, making improvements where necessary along the way. This is key to your success as a trader.

Stick to YOUR plan!

Let us not forget the big picture. EURUSD is still in a downtrend.

I believe we could be heading to the 1.079 - 1.0765 range.
1.081 is also an important number.

Note: This info is subject to change on a Daily Basis!

1HR chart
8HR chart
Bearish Divergence 4HR chart
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The 4HR candle closed bearish engulfing. It's likely price will continue to decline further, but there is a chance we could see a minor pullback before then around 8421 - 8577, since we have reached the lower Average Daily Range at 8135.

There is also a chance it will just simply continue moving down from here. Time will tell. See prior post for more info.
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Ah nice thread brother I will come by !

I am no longer bullish on USD. The U.S. is facing some very serious issues! COVID-19, massive riots and looting, massive job loss, political problems, etc...

Until these things are worked out, I only see USD continuing to decline. So I will only be looking for buying opportunities on EURUSD for now. If I see a strong sell signal, then I will take it. But we appear to be far from that at the moment!

2 significant price levels I have my eyes on are: 1.14918 (marked red) and 1.1346 (marked gold).

EURUSD Weekly Chart


Someone said, "Bears are sleeping." Are they?

Market Sentiment says otherwise!
Image Source
No, bears aren't sleeping. Bears are being severely suppressed by people with deep pockets (market makers).

It is important that you learn to use sentiment in trading!

For those of you who are looking for an edge in the Forex market on USD pairs, pay attention to the U.S. Dollar Currency Index! The next key price is 96.97. Pay attention to what happens there. What happens to USD obviously impacts EURUSD, either negatively or positively!