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  • #17,401
  • Mar 19, 2020 2:47pm Mar 19, 2020 2:47pm
How low can BA go? It was as low as $90.x today. But it traded down at $35 after the '08 crisis. Took until 2013 to come above $100. I am loading cheap call spreads out past July, looking for recovery into low $200's at least....I'd love to be sitting on some long calls that catch some $50 moves....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,402
  • Mar 19, 2020 3:03pm Mar 19, 2020 3:03pm
filled BA $220/230 Aug vert calls for 80c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,403
  • Mar 19, 2020 3:28pm Mar 19, 2020 3:28pm
Quoting The Fool
filled BA $220/230 Aug vert calls for 80c
I just dont know if they can take the double whammy from this crisis and the 737 max. Plus lawsuits

I'm in AAL spreads from July to next year.....bring on the bailouts
  • #17,404
  • Mar 19, 2020 4:23pm Mar 19, 2020 4:23pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I just dont know if they can take the double whammy from this crisis and the 737 max. Plus lawsuits I'm in AAL spreads from July to next year.....bring on the bailouts
....if anybody gets a plush bailout it'll be Boeing. They are a de facto NS asset that is truly 2big2fail. What the share price will do thru all this remains to be seen. The spread above was a 4 lot, might be all I risk on it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,405
  • Mar 20, 2020 2:29am Mar 20, 2020 2:29am
/ES rallying hard overnight, I have a nice VXX put spread to come off Friday if the current trend holds.

I don't think we've seen the bottom yet, though. The reality & implications of peak virus have not really sunk in yet.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,406
  • Mar 20, 2020 3:25am Mar 20, 2020 3:25am
Look at vix futures notice how the short term 5 days is going up and the 26 days are going down. The market is pricing in that things will be better in 26 days.
Not calling a bottom here, just reading the futures.
Having said that selling vxx call spreads should pay nice. Sold the 80/85 yesterday for .93 that expires today
  • #17,407
  • Mar 20, 2020 3:30am Mar 20, 2020 3:30am
yeah we may have a bottom in, idk. If we're gonna rally 2-300 pts in the next week then we could just try to retest the 23xx.xx low again...certainly there are a lot of alarming headlines yet to come, but maybe the markets will have become numb to it all. This situation is completely unpredictable. I am happy I got in a fair amount of trades This week, shooting at a rebound into Q3. Which itself is a wild guess....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,408
  • Mar 20, 2020 3:43am Mar 20, 2020 3:43am
Tend to agree with you, when this virus stuff passes people will try to make up for things missed. Vacation not yet taken. New cars, get back on airplanes and so on.
until then buy cornbread futures, that way at least you can eat the product !
  • #17,409
  • Mar 20, 2020 8:52am Mar 20, 2020 8:52am
No bottom until cure
  • #17,410
  • Mar 20, 2020 9:43am Mar 20, 2020 9:43am
Quoting Pharm0r
No bottom until cure
...compare to chinese stocks, they came back fairly quick as it appeared the aggressive govt response to the outbreak was having an effect
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,411
  • Mar 20, 2020 12:47pm Mar 20, 2020 12:47pm
In the following:

FDX Apr17 140 CALL @ $0.75

Couldn't get the 135s to come off the Bid, so got these instead.....
  • #17,412
  • Mar 20, 2020 3:42pm Mar 20, 2020 3:42pm
I didn't enter or close anything today. I got in some SPY and SPX put flys yesterday, targeting as low as sub 2,000 over the next few weeks.

Stay safe everyone. Don't go out, don't do anything, keep your distance from everybody, don't touch anything, and try to stay positive.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,413
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:33am Mar 21, 2020 7:33am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...compare to chinese stocks, they came back fairly quick as it appeared the aggressive govt response to the outbreak was having an effect
They're lying. No way that should surprise you

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000469040061
  • #17,414
  • Mar 21, 2020 10:59am Mar 21, 2020 10:59am
Quoting Pharm0r
They're lying. No way that should surprise you https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000469040061
SHCOMP dove pretty hard in the last week, I see. But they're down just 12% on the year. Haven't listened to the podcast, but if it casts doubt on the recovery in Wuhan and elsewhere, ok. They are still under lockdown in Wuhan....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,415
  • Mar 23, 2020 2:46am Mar 23, 2020 2:46am
no guts no glory
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,416
  • Mar 23, 2020 2:49am Mar 23, 2020 2:49am
I think that will pay off ! long time until Oct and you can roll your short position to reduce your cost.
  • #17,417
  • Mar 23, 2020 3:30am Mar 23, 2020 3:30am
Quoting Ronzoil
I think that will pay off ! long time until Oct and you can roll your short position to reduce your cost.
I'd like to get in lower, as low as $7 or $8, and I am looking for more time also...watching for another leg down for wti to <$17...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,418
  • Mar 23, 2020 1:57pm Mar 23, 2020 1:57pm
In the following:

SPY Apr1 242 CALL @ $3.10

Should make money if they ever pass that Phase 3 bill in the senate.....
  • #17,419
  • Mar 23, 2020 8:29pm Mar 23, 2020 8:29pm
I'm gonna look at BP May15 22 or 23 CALLS right at the open, see if I can't pick some up less than $0.90 or $0.60.

Should have plenty of time move head back up enough to make some money....

I'll check out SBUX, HD, and BA and see if there are any good deals, too.
  • #17,420
  • Mar 24, 2020 10:14am Mar 24, 2020 10:14am
I've filled USO call calendars similar to shown above, @ $8, $9, & $10....long legs Oct and Jan '21....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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