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The Swamp

  • #57,221
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:12pm Mar 22, 2020 7:12pm
wait to see which one will get hit tonight... 1.0744 or 1.0585
70 adr atm 3 hours since open...
  • #57,222
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:20pm Mar 22, 2020 7:20pm
China reports 39 new cases and 9 new deaths over the weekend.....in a country of 1.3 billion.

The overall mortality rate in China is 7.13 per 1,000. That means, in a given year, 9.27 million chinese people die, or about 25,400 per day. Just some perspective...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #57,223
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:23pm Mar 22, 2020 7:23pm
try again here 1.0703..... will add...
  • #57,224
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:23pm Mar 22, 2020 7:23pm
comparable mortality stats for the USA, per the CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #57,225
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:27pm Mar 22, 2020 7:27pm
USA death data for 2017:

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

  1. Heart disease: 647,457
  2. Cancer: 599,108
  3. Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  5. Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  6. Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  7. Diabetes: 83,564
  8. Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
  9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
  10. Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #57,226
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:29pm Mar 22, 2020 7:29pm
Quoting Boulder
try again here 1.0703..... will add...
flat out 0683, within 6 mins +20 ,,
.
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  • #57,227
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:39pm Mar 22, 2020 7:39pm
The death rate in the USA is 8.7 per 1,000. Meaning about 8,100 people die per day. Day in, day out. People die.

A higher death rate generally means more people are dying than are being born, so it's an indication of a) a low birth rate and b) an aging population

The birth rate in the USA has been as low in the last few years as it has been since WWII.

Maybe this shelter and screw in place month of April will help the birth rate.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #57,228
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:51pm Mar 22, 2020 7:51pm
I see /GC up $13...it's not a panic if everything is not getting sold.

We have some weeks (3-6 about) of alarming data to come down the pipe in the USA. More testing and the natural spread of the virus means much higher numbers infected and more deaths. But somewhere in that dark cloud will be the ray of sunlight that means it will be over and risk assets will bottom. It's not the end of the world. Life will go on. It'll be interesting to see what kinds of changes are lasting as a result.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #57,229
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:15pm Mar 22, 2020 8:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1 min and 30 sec
with a 5 pip stop this was a bust.

0706 area, is worth a pending..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,230
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:18pm Mar 22, 2020 8:18pm
the imagine is haunting.. do our best not to get it...
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  • #57,231
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:18pm Mar 22, 2020 8:18pm
Quoting The Fool
USA death data for 2017: Number of deaths for leading causes of death: Heart disease: 647,457 Cancer: 599,108 Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936 Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201 Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383 Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404 Diabetes: 83,564 Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672 Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633 Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
all of these death rates rise when they will be unable to get a hospital bed. Or a doctor, usually treatable routine accidents or er room visits may be deadly. Many cancer treatments have stopped because of corona already.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,232
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:22pm Mar 22, 2020 8:22pm
Datapoints atm..... in case M30 1.0705 can't hold by bears at M30 close .. 1.0744 may be in the card as I previously noted....

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  • #57,233
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:36pm Mar 22, 2020 8:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} all of these death rates rise when they will be unable to get a hospital bed. Or a doctor, usually treatable routine accidents or er room visits may be deadly. Many cancer treatments have stopped because of corona already.
Yep, probably. The Spanish flu raised the death rate in the US by 12%. And then there's the dreaded second wave...https://www.history.com/news/spanish...ave-resurgence
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #57,234
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:40pm Mar 22, 2020 8:40pm
short some 1.0706 here... will add...
  • #57,235
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:58pm Mar 22, 2020 8:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yep, probably. The Spanish flu raised the death rate in the US by 12%. And then there's the dreaded second wave...https://www.history.com/news/spanish...ave-resurgence
if the beds are full, any needing a ventilators after will die. If 8-12% need ventilators. That traffic jam can add up to a million +. A second or 3rd wave mutation would suck. Some women giving birth will die. Some premature babies will not have a ventilator.
A car accident may be harder to survive. A police officers gunshot, a mild heart attack, stroke, etc.

Plus unlike other countries, we dont have the ventilators needed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,236
  • Mar 22, 2020 9:00pm Mar 22, 2020 9:00pm
Quoting Boulder
Datapoints atm..... in case M30 1.0705 can't hold by bears at M30 close .. 1.0744 may be in the card as I previously noted.... {image} {image}
Bears failed to hold M30 downtrend at M30 close.. I pause EurUsd shorts for now....
  • #57,237
  • Mar 22, 2020 9:31pm Mar 22, 2020 9:31pm
dow 18121 futures -5%
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,238
  • Mar 22, 2020 9:50pm Mar 22, 2020 9:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
dow 18121 futures -5%
good night.. see you here after London opens..
  • #57,239
  • Mar 22, 2020 10:45pm Mar 22, 2020 10:45pm
Quoting Pip-loser
{quote} 3:30 AM Bear Signal Confirmation First Short 100,001 Units Eur/Usd At 1:0654 Pending Short Above At 1:0740 Remains In Place If Price Should Bounce Targets Remain The Same
Pending Second Short At 1:0740 Cancelled

Manually Triggered Second Short 100,000 Units At 1:0715
First Short Still Holding 100,001 Units At 1:0654
Targets Below To Look Out For 1:0580, Then 1:0500, Then 1:0340

I Am Novice Trader
Cancelled Membership, Accused By FF Member(i'll Be Back) of Being A Con Man
  • #57,240
  • Mar 23, 2020 12:42am Mar 23, 2020 12:42am
/ES 217x.x heading for limit down. We should see a pop in equities if /when the congress finally gets that stimulus bill passed. but the coming weeks are going to see more alarming news, US virus hotspots will start to seem uncontrolled, equities will react. SnP 2,000 is possible now this week and we might see 1,86x. WTI should flirt again with $20, and that should definitely not hold, unless something changes in the supply side war.

It's hard to overstate what a great opportunity the bottoming of oil price is. Oil <$20/bbl is not sustainable and when (not if) the world economy revives, we will see oil back above $45 easily.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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