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The Swamp

  • #57,061
  • Mar 22, 2020 6:08am Mar 22, 2020 6:08am
S&P Ratings Slashed Its Forecast For Oil Prices By $10/Barrel, Citing Severe Supply-Demand Imbalance Due To The Virus Outbreak
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
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  • #57,062
  • Mar 22, 2020 6:31am Mar 22, 2020 6:31am
MOSCOW, March 22 (Reuters) - The Russian military will start sending medical help to Italy from Sunday in order to help it battle the new coronavirus after receiving an order from President Vladimir Putin, Russia's Defence Ministry said in a statement.
Putin spoke to Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte on Saturday, the Kremlin said, saying the Russian leader had offered his support and help in the form of mobile disinfection vehicles and specialists to help the worst hit Italian regions.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #57,063
  • Mar 22, 2020 6:45am Mar 22, 2020 6:45am
Quoting JustPipMe
{quote} I am 45yo, and admittedly getting a bit scared. Both parents in mid to late 70’s. We’re all in Southern California
stay safe, nobody knows they have a weakness to this, until it happens. Somewhere around 8%+ will need hospital ventilation care. That includes some young. Once in that boat. the chances for survival are cut in half. Its estimated that near 1 million venilaters are needed in the U.S. From the government stockpile. Our government has 20k. Instead of getting prepared months ago. He decided to call it a hoax, and do nothing until 2 weeks ago. Still even today, he won't order companies to build ventilators. This is within his powers. If you or me end up in the 8%. After the beds are taken, our chances drop dramatically. No matter if you 60 or 5 years old. What has happened here, is a total failure, from incompetence. No matter if we squeak by or not. White house incompetence has already killed Americans. This will be a long 6 months ahead. Thousands will still die, maybe hundreds of thousands. Incompetence has put all Americans at risk, much more than the virus alone.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,064
  • Mar 22, 2020 6:52am Mar 22, 2020 6:52am
Quoting OhComeOn
{quote} California Population 39,560,000 in 2018, should be higher now. # of confirmed virus cases in California less than 1500. Statistically speaking I think you don't have much to worry about. Not saying be careless, but I think the odds are in your favor.
Statistically speaking, we have no clinical statistics
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,065
  • Mar 22, 2020 6:57am Mar 22, 2020 6:57am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} Corona viruses are known by the scientific community to be stable (no mutations), let's hope that the worst ever case scenario won't realize...
Hmmm this one has muted at least twice already.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,066
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:06am Mar 22, 2020 7:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 14 or less coming
1998/9 or 1986? I'm trying to figure out a plan on how to manage this potential scenario. Do you have any ideas you're willing to share publicly? No problem if not...
  • #57,067
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:10am Mar 22, 2020 7:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 14 or less coming
well Italy already shut any production so country is done on economic.
if more are coming demand for everything will stop

that really amazing to see.

i think this fear and social distancing will stay for more time even if we turn on everything
a new virus can come at any time.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #57,068
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:12am Mar 22, 2020 7:12am
Quoting DMA Trader
S&P Ratings Slashed Its Forecast For Oil Prices By $10/Barrel, Citing Severe Supply-Demand Imbalance Due To The Virus Outbreak
14.31$ or less coming
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,069
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:15am Mar 22, 2020 7:15am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} well Italy already shut any production so country is done on economic. if more are coming demand for everything will stop that really amazing to see. i think this fear and social distancing will stay for more time even if we turn on everything a new virus can come at any time.
I see many less cars on the interstate here. Less planes, less cars, less plastics to need oil. Demand is still dropping. Oil is still over supplied. It only can go down. Oil is a very heavily credited industry. When the banks move in, they fire sale oil. Its expensive to store it. Unless it's in the ground. Its a negative to hold and store it on a banks books. It's a liability, storage and insurance wise. At some point its not worth it. Less so if the next few months outlook is dire.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,070
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:19am Mar 22, 2020 7:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I see many less cars on the interstate here. Less planes, less cars, less plastics to need oil. Demand is still dropping. Oil is still over supplied. It only can go down.
yes and numbers so far are not improving

also on cases
From 0 to 100,000 cases: 110 days
From 100,000 to 200,000 cases: 12 days
From 200,000 to 300,000 cases: 3 days
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #57,071
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:24am Mar 22, 2020 7:24am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} yes and numbers so far are not improving also on cases From 0 to 100,000 cases: 110 days From 100,000 to 200,000 cases: 12 days From 200,000 to 300,000 cases: 3 days {image}
Yep, if the cases are rising. So is, the less demand for oil. Yeah in 3 more days a million should be in the grasp. And if you weren't testing.. It may already be there. We only see the tip of the iceberg. Old people die every day. Many were buried w/o testing. In Jan/Feb. No testing was given in the U.S.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,072
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:35am Mar 22, 2020 7:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I see many less cars on the interstate here. Less planes, less cars, less plastics to need oil. Demand is still dropping. Oil is still over supplied. It only can go down. Oil is a very heavily credited industry. When the banks move in, they fire sale oil. Its expensive to store it. Unless it's in the ground. Its a negative to hold and store it on a banks books. It's a liability, storage and insurance wise. At some point its not worth it. Less so if the next few months outlook is dire.
It's a good point we just buy the paper (most of us here no doubt). We often forget what a barrel of oil looks like..

At the moment there's a lot of demand for super tankers.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravs.../#94327b97e39e

I can't remember where, or who, but I remember someone even mentioned converting cruise ships to oil tankers. Was nothing concrete just an idea given the spike in demand vs total destruction of cruise business. No idea how that works in real terms h & s what legal requirements etc...

You have to assume given the costs involved for storage, insurance, the cost of maintenance, and whatever else you might think of, they really are confident on making big $ and so assume prices will rocket at some point in the near enough future to justify the gamble.
  • #57,073
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:42am Mar 22, 2020 7:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Hmmm this one has muted at least twice already.
hmmm, difficult to know the truth, maybe those I heard were talking about mutation in the sense that it wasn't changing it's dangerousness behavior but anyway, nothing must be taken for granted...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #57,074
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:53am Mar 22, 2020 7:53am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} hmmm, difficult to know the truth, maybe those I heard were talking about mutation in the sense that it wasn't changing it's dangerousness behavior but anyway, nothing must be taken for granted...
something has to be in Italy it's going worse than any country
something is there.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #57,075
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:53am Mar 22, 2020 7:53am
Quoting beszle
{quote} It's a good point we just buy the paper (most of us here no doubt). We often forget what a barrel of oil looks like.. At the moment there's a lot of demand for super tankers. https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravs.../#94327b97e39e I can't remember where, or who, but I remember someone even mentioned converting cruise ships to oil tankers. Was nothing concrete just an idea given the spike in demand vs total destruction of cruise business. No idea how that works...
Where they will miss the boat is U.S. shale production cost will drop. Why or how do I come up with that you ask. WTF i'm I talking about? Let's say I went to a bank and borrowed 1 billion $ for shale production. Figuring at that time oil was 55$ pb and I could produce it for 30$ pb. So the banks see's I'm making 25$ pb. They give oil company a big loan XYZ. Meanwhile back at the ranch. Oil prices drop to 20$ pb. The banks and xyz get nervous. Eventually xyz runs out of money producing oil at a negative 10$ pb. The bank comes in and auctions off xyz. company abc wins the bid at 250,000,000$. Which is great for abc. abc has less overhead since he only paid 1/4 of what xyz paid. abc can produce oil at 10$ pb and make money. So as the generations of bankrupt oil companies fade. Eventually one will compete with the Russians and Saudis run rates. Its how free enterprise works. We dont need bailouts. We just need the free market to be allowed to work.

Let those buying oil to store in a ship have the 2008 treatment. The optimistic view of this just lasting a month or 2 is a gamble. Storing oil in a ship is a gamble. The ship already has your product and control of it. If you dont pay for the storage. The shipping company will fire sale the oil. They did it in 2008. As oil drops, margin calls increase. And the ability to pay the shippers decrease. 2008 all over again.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,076
  • Mar 22, 2020 7:55am Mar 22, 2020 7:55am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} yes and numbers so far are not improving also on cases From 0 to 100,000 cases: 110 days From 100,000 to 200,000 cases: 12 days From 200,000 to 300,000 cases: 3 days {image}
And we will have to wait a bit before seeing any improvement...

Today in Japan, 50k people flocked and making selfies in front of a flame

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Yesterday Autralia Bondi Beach, people having good time as usual

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #57,077
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:03am Mar 22, 2020 8:03am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Where they will miss the boat is U.S. shale production cost will drop. Why or how do I come up with that you ask. WTF i'm I talking about? Let's say I went to a bank and borrowed 1 billion $ for shale production. Figuring at that time oil was 55$ pb and I could produce it for 30$ pb. So the banks see's I'm making 25$ pb. They give oil company a big loan XYZ. Meanwhile back at the ranch. Oil prices drop to 20$ pb. The banks and xyz get nervous. Eventually xyz runs out of money producing oil at a negative 10$ pb. The bank comes in and auctions...
this will be important. every time they let the market work someone wiser comes in a buys at super discount
but at this point don't know if it's possible. ... we may see something like this in oil since it looks like the lobby they used to have is smaller than other times.

there are wise money waiting for cheap deals
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #57,078
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:05am Mar 22, 2020 8:05am
It happens..https://www.cbsnews.com/news/roofing...ough-own-roof/
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,079
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:08am Mar 22, 2020 8:08am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} this will be important. every time they let the market work someone wiser comes in a buys at super discount but at this point don't know if it's possible. ... we may see something like this in oil since it looks like the lobby they used to have is smaller than other times. there are wise money waiting for cheap deals {image}
The markets never lost a penny. Money is never lost. It just changes hands. The smart money is on the side waiting and nibbling..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #57,080
  • Mar 22, 2020 8:14am Mar 22, 2020 8:14am
off to book reading
see you all later.

be a superman
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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