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  • #81
  • Jul 12, 2016 4:11pm Jul 12, 2016 4:11pm
Quoting numbnuts
I've ....... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uzq1jgNKuBc
Excellent posting!

Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #82
  • Sep 8, 2016 11:56am Sep 8, 2016 11:56am
Some more Central Bank info. See here.
The Perception of Monetary Policy Standing chart would be helpful in trading this method I believe and how it changes periodically.
Unfortunately most central banks are seemingly dovish to 1 degree or another, except the Fed at the moment.
Another interesting chart is Global Stimulus at 10:27mins. A bit scary looking having now reached US$18,000,000,000,000.00
Everything will be okay in the end. If it's not okay, it's not the end.
  • #83
  • Edited 9:21am Jul 26, 2017 8:39am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting numbnuts
I've simplified things here ... there is a lot of nuance and discretion involved in my analysis which I'll get into later but my basic FA rules are: - Only buy a currency if the central bank is hawkish/becoming hawkish. - Only sell a currency if the central bank is dovish/becoming dovish. - Only buy stock indices if all major central banks are simultaneously dovish. - Only sell stock indices if all major central banks are simultaneously hawkish. - Only buy a commodity if COT shows large speculators are buying. - Only sell a commodity if COT show...
As you said, apart from the fact of the amount of discretion, I love the simplicity of those sentences. My question may be a little out of topic, but if I ask you about cryptocurrencies (and I would understand if it is not your field) how would it fit into that ideas simplification?
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
  • #84
  • Dec 29, 2018 10:24pm Dec 29, 2018 10:24pm
Here's one I've been waiting a long time for. SPX500 has been supported for a long time by very loose monetary policy from the fed. Now QE has ended and the Fed has started to raise rates, the SPX500 has moved into a downtrend on the weekly:

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And the daily is showing a pullback against that trend:

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But the fundamental reason for the downtrend is still there, so I drop to the 4H and look for sideways movement, showing weakness in the pullback.

There it is, so I place a sell order at 2470 with S/L at 2525

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si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #85
  • Feb 6, 2019 10:31am Feb 6, 2019 10:31am
Short .7164 AUDUSD - 0.5% risk

Philip Lowe told the National Press Club in Sydney on Wednesday, that the chance of the rate cut is more likely than it used to be, changing the RBA’s tone slightly.

The US dollar sold off aggressively today after the Federal Reserve made it very clear that they have no plans to raise interest rates anytime soon.

This trade might be a tough grind, we are trading into a very bullish Monthly candle..A neutral stance from the FED V's a neutral stance ( with dovish tones ) from the RBA, might give it a slight edge though.the FED has been raising rates since 2016, the RBA has been lowering rates since 2012

The technicals aren't great but Price is below the 50ema on the MN,W1,D1 and H4.

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Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #86
  • Oct 15, 2019 5:54am Oct 15, 2019 5:54am
Very resourceful thread and knowledge shared. Thank you all for your contributions.
  • #87
  • Mar 21, 2020 12:46pm Mar 21, 2020 12:46pm
Quoting numbnuts
From there I drop to the 4H and look for a series of inside bars, or sideways consolidation pattern. I place an entry order at the bottom of that range, and S/L at the top of it: {image} So my order only gets filled if price breaks out of its range in the direction of the weekly trend.

Very informative! I personally have will try more to keep up with the annoucements! I have learned about the multiple tine frame analysis from John J Murphy on technical analyis.
The longer time frame showing you the trend, a shortrt time frame the current direction, and even shorter time frame the entry. I am yet to put this into practice as I am a fumdementalist at hear.
I want to know as much as I can snd see how it shaping the market and then out my tradind decision in from there.
You have a well thought out systematic method though umcertain to what level and depth of "intermarket analysis" this is.
  • #88
  • Mar 21, 2020 1:50pm Mar 21, 2020 1:50pm
good call numbnuts, the spx500 definitely did look bearish, and it was also showing heavy indicator divergence (I use TDI)

congrats if you stayed in that short, as it definitely did go down (helped no doubt by coronavirus hysteria, but no doubt would have tanked anyways looking at the structure)

blam

Quoting numbnuts
Here's one I've been waiting a long time for. SPX500 has been supported for a long time by very loose monetary policy from the fed. Now QE has ended and the Fed has started to raise rates, the SPX500 has moved into a downtrend on the weekly: {image} And the daily is showing a pullback against that trend: {image} But the fundamental reason for the downtrend is still there, so I drop to the 4H and look for sideways movement, showing weakness in the pullback. There it is, so I place a sell order at 2470 with S/L at 2525 {image}
  • #89
  • Mar 21, 2020 4:13pm Mar 21, 2020 4:13pm
Quoting blamshakk
good call numbnuts, the spx500 definitely did look bearish, and it was also showing heavy indicator divergence (I use TDI) congrats if you stayed in that short, as it definitely did go down (helped no doubt by coronavirus hysteria, but no doubt would have tanked anyways looking at the structure) blam {quote}
But that was from 2018 so no one ever heard of the virus back then...and it didnt even exist back then other than in bats lol Maybe they new
  • #90
  • Mar 22, 2020 9:06am Mar 22, 2020 9:06am
yes and that chart was a long-term, weekly view, so the timeframe is totally relevant, strucurally, to today. like i said in my post, the downward turn has been no doubt helpled by the coronavirus, but structurally it was obviously headed for a correction anyway - that leaps out from the chart.

interesting how something will happen structually on the charts sometimes, and the news story will almost be retrofitted to explain it. If it hadn't been the virus in the news cycle, that plunge would have been attributed to something else. But it was almost certainly headed down.

blam

Quoting EAforextrade
{quote} But that was from 2018 so no one ever heard of the virus back then...and it didnt even exist back then other than in bats lol Maybe they new
  • #91
  • Oct 26, 2020 7:12pm Oct 26, 2020 7:12pm
Thank you numbnuts for this thread! I never knew FA and TA can be applied this easy. Thanks and keep up the great work
  • #92
  • Last Post: Mar 2, 2024 2:03am Mar 2, 2024 2:03am
Great thread

This is a UK stock I've been trading for a while, was showing a friend the set-up - only show DAILY chart here, but same principle holds

We can't obtain COT for UK stocks, so I show RSI - If the trend is BULLISH, it'll HOLD above 40, If BEARISH, it'll find resistance 60% and under

MA's are Simple 10, 20, 30 & 50

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