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Bronco Capital's ABCD Harmonic Pattern Journal 94 replies

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The Bucking Bronco

  • #3,761
  • Mar 21, 2020 5:21am Mar 21, 2020 5:21am
Quoting karuner
{quote} true of course. for many reasons, if one starts to think about it; one of the reasons being that high and low are hindsight-concepts. but still i believe, this would be the most abstract and general description of any trading system and method. it allows for a million different approaches, but in itself is nothing more than lets say an algebraic formula where the variables are not yet filled with concrete values. what, then is the central problem of a trader? catching (feeling) the dynamics?
Translate everything in lines (S/R) and they will become a strong reality!
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  • #3,762
  • Mar 21, 2020 5:28am Mar 21, 2020 5:28am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote}What I'm suggesting is a way to read the terrain and the dynamics of the opposite Market Forces (Supply and Demand) on it. {image}
but if we want to narrate (in hindsight or real time) from the traces we see left on the battlefield, i need to be clear about some concepts. Bulls and Bears – we're talking about the buy-side guys here, that is those who step in, firing their market buy and sell orders?

This is the picture, that is mostly drawn among retailers, but I think we need to put more types players into the picture. I want to put into question some of the everyday widsoms that are constantly repeated in the retail industry.
  • #3,763
  • Edited 5:46am Mar 21, 2020 5:30am | Edited 5:46am
Quoting karuner
I think we need to put more types players into the picture.
Yes and no.
Market discounts everything.
I am a pure trader, I am interested in the pure movemnent of price and not on the Reason Why it happens.
Two lines. A structure. A sense for this chart!
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  • #3,764
  • Edited 10:46am Mar 21, 2020 5:30am | Edited 10:46am
Wyckoff: The Composite Operator... in fact is composite.
Everything is inside that D1 candle.
Its form and position is the only thing that matters.
It's the only one reality.

I don't care a fig about ECB, Brokers, Istitutions and the like (coronavirus included). I'm a trader not an analyst or commentator.
I try to free my mind completely.
I think only in waves (of different grade): waves of buyers and/or waves of sellers.
  • #3,765
  • Mar 21, 2020 5:46am Mar 21, 2020 5:46am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Yes and no. Market discounts everything. I am a pure trader, I interested in the pure movemnent of price and not on the Reason Why it happens. {image}
I am not so pure (yet?). I mean, there are different kinds of why (reason for x).
1) Why they do it – we probably shouldn't care; because we couldn't possibly know. And most of the time there are as many different answers to that as there are players.
2) Why price is moving in the sense of who is moving it (because price doesn't move itself; price in itself is inert, I'd say): I like to think about that. Because it is deciding, who is on the battlefield. Artillery or small infantry platoons, and so on.
  • #3,766
  • Mar 21, 2020 5:49am Mar 21, 2020 5:49am
Quoting karuner
Why price is moving ....
Not "who" is moving the market but "What".
In fact I'm only interested in "Where the Orders could be?"

(I have to play the Devil's Lawyer part... and I love it!)
  • #3,767
  • Mar 21, 2020 5:54am Mar 21, 2020 5:54am
I don't try to predict anything... so I don't care about anything.
I just follow the highs and lows on my charts.
I follow. Why have I to try to lead? I know nothing.
I think that a Trader if want to be a real trader must change (profoundly) his perspective.
I am a humble mouse-lab.
I obey. Period.
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  • #3,768
  • Mar 21, 2020 6:06am Mar 21, 2020 6:06am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} I have to play the Devil's Lawyer part... and I love it!)
most valuable in most discussions.

Quote
I don't try to predict anything..
i must be precise here: not predicting, but expecting something. For example, I'm driving fast on the Autobahn, left lane, different cars with different speeds everywhere. i spot one car on the right lane. he's not blinking but i expect "this one might in the next moment switch to the left lane", so i already have my foot on the brake, just in case. what i mean: seeing a pattern form/unfold in realtime. being prepared already, as more and more confirmations come in. this is not predicting in the strong sense.
  • #3,769
  • Mar 21, 2020 6:12am Mar 21, 2020 6:12am
Quoting karuner
{quote} most valuable in most discussions. {quote} i must be precise here: not predicting, but expecting something. For example, I'm driving fast on the Autobahn, left lane, different cars with different speeds everywhere. i spot one car on the right lane. he's not blinking but i expect "this one might in the next moment switch to the left lane", so i already have my foot on the brake, just in case. what i mean: seeing a pattern form/unfold in realtime. being prepared already, as more and more confirmations come in. this is not predicting in the...
OK. I agree.
As yesterday teaches to us: a pattern can always be defeated in any moment.
So I know what I have to do in both the conditions.
I have my pre-planned sequences already prepared. (plus I am always ready for a possible extraordinary event)
This is the correct approach to me.
  • #3,770
  • Mar 21, 2020 6:19am Mar 21, 2020 6:19am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Translate everything in lines (S/R) and they will become a strong reality! {image}
Very true and very helpful when in the thick of battle with Dax
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,771
  • Mar 21, 2020 6:39am Mar 21, 2020 6:39am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} OK. I agree. As yesterday teaches to us: a pattern can always be defeated in any moment. So I know what I have to do in both the conditions. I have my pre-planned sequences already prepared. (plus I am always ready for a possible extraordinary event) This is the correct approach to me.
this requires very much screentime-experience. even more, if you want to be prepared to act on alternatives. low skilled trader must wait, wait, wait and be prepared to act on confirmations of his expectations; and learn to sit on his hands or exit if the pattern does not unfold but gets crushed into an ugly mess. but an unfolding pattern is a beauty. even in hindsight, but really in real time; and wow if the trader is a part of the hand that is painting it.

one thing about the non-relevant knowledge, where i sometimes like to play the advocatus diaboli. "When Price goes up, bulls are in control", they teach to retail amateur traders. really? but who is selling to them and at what price and who determines at what price they can have what they so urgently want?
Why I think its actually not non-relevant? There are things like Feigned retreats and stuff.
  • #3,772
  • Mar 21, 2020 6:44am Mar 21, 2020 6:44am
Quoting karuner
this requires very much screentime-experience. even more, if you want to be prepared to act on alternatives.
I know I say and do rather unusual things.
I know what impression I can make.
But I spent too much time with Gann and Livermore. Of course I am "strange".

Mine is only a stimulus for each of us to deepen and not to stop at the surface of things.
Don't stop at what "people comume" says and thinks.

Tom Dante says:
"You can only get better at this game by one way, and one way only, and that is self-analysis.
What am I doing well?
What am I doing badly?
What are my major weaknesses?
And what are the specific steps I can take to become a better trader?
These are the things that you constantly have to be asking yourself.
Perseverance is all good, but you have to persevere in a way that is conducive to you improving as a trader,
NOT just simply doing the same thing all the time, which is what so many people do."
  • #3,773
  • Mar 21, 2020 6:46am Mar 21, 2020 6:46am
oh yes and i don't believe too much in objective patterns because i haven't seen them work for me. objective in the sense of having read them somewhere and then applied them with success. but i have found by close M1-observation some few patterns on my own, of which i have never read anywhere. they worked for some time and maybe then no more. but i'll find new ones...
by pattern i do not mean a crystalized structure of three candles or so. maybe it works, what do i know, should probably really try it. what i mean is a pattern of growing and shrinking, quickly and slowly, twitching and waiting and so on.
  • #3,774
  • Mar 21, 2020 6:57am Mar 21, 2020 6:57am
Quoting karuner
by pattern i do not mean a crystalized structure of three candles or so..
I obviously can't know what you really think, karuner.
it is not easy to communicate in writing on the Internet.
Misunderstandings are normal.
But my recommendation is absolutely to study and understand the Eastern and Western Pattern Recognition system.
I have repeatedly quoted Bulkowsky and Nison in my Journals.
I believe it is indispensable and is the basis of the construction of a "Sequences" collection.
The territory of "Contraction / Expansion" is part of this whole ...
which in fact starts from Dow, Elliott to get to Crabel, Taylor and Dalton, Stedelmeyer ...
Trading has a long history.
  • #3,775
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:01am Mar 21, 2020 7:01am
In addition, the basic concept for truly successful trading is to be on the obvious side ... the one everyone sees.
Our move, in fact, the one in which we choose to enter ... must have the highest possible number of followers to be successful.
This is why (exaggerating) in trading the obvious are more important than the secrets. ROFL.

This is why I ask to change the normal, usual, wrong perspective.
Now. This morning we touched a good range of topics.
I think you have to start again from that H1 detailed view to get the beauty of the approach. Trust me.
Terrain analysis is the correct answer.
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  • #3,776
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:05am Mar 21, 2020 7:05am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} I obviously can't know what you really think, karuner. it is not easy to communicate in writing on the Internet. Misunderstandings are normal. But my recommendation is absolutely to study and understand the Eastern and Western Pattern Recognition system. I have repeatedly quoted Bulkowsky and Nison in my Journals. I believe it is indispensable and is the basis of the construction of a "Sequences" collection. The territory of "Contraction / Expansion" is part of this whole ... which in fact starts from Dow, Elliott to get to Crabel, Taylor...
Yes, I know some of this. The point i want to make is, that I feel when the pattern is there, it's already to late. I do mean its unfolding. By which i mean: the growing / unfolding of a çertain pattern has itself a pattern.
  • #3,777
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:13am Mar 21, 2020 7:13am
Try to remember the sensations you have felt following my entries live yesterday and your comments on the aesthetic of trading...
the answer is there.
For each pattern we can discuss of "anticipation" or "point of confirmation"...
Naturally the point of confirmation will be attacked...
One thing is Strategy another is TACTICS!

This is to build preplanned sequences.
This is to learn how to trade patterns and different terrains.
Hope this makes sense.

They are calling me for lunch. I will be always here. Take care, everyone.
  • #3,778
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:19am Mar 21, 2020 7:19am
Quoting Jupiter
Terrain analysis is the correct answer. {image}
maybe i'm beginning to understand. let's explain this metaphor of the terrain. terrain is where the orders lie, the orders lying around are the terrain?
  • #3,779
  • Mar 21, 2020 7:57am Mar 21, 2020 7:57am
Different quantities of orders in different positions create different patterns on the ground.
Each with its own physical and dynamic characteristics.

Sun Tzu - The Art of war - Chapter X - Terrain.
"The general who has attained a responsible post must be careful to study them."

"21. The natural formation of the country is the soldier's best ally;
but a power of estimating the adversary, of controlling the forces of victory,
and of shrewdly calculating difficulties, dangers and distances,
constitutes the test of a great general."
  • #3,780
  • Mar 21, 2020 8:06am Mar 21, 2020 8:06am
"22. He who knows these things, and in fighting puts his knowledge into practice, will win his battles.
He who knows them not, nor practices them, will surely be defeated."
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