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The Great Pumpkin

  • #161
  • Edited 7:43pm Jan 4, 2019 7:26pm | Edited 7:43pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} See here: https://www.mql5.com/en/code/7758 http://fractalfinance.blogspot.com/2...tal-graph.html Cheers, k
Thks, will try it.
Just to be sure, so the goal is to place the line in the sand in a place where there is lot of volatility so price won’t zigzag around the line too much before shooting in one direction for us to bank some pips ? Have you tried this concept on charrts like rehko or grids ?
  • #162
  • Jan 5, 2019 4:42am Jan 5, 2019 4:42am
Quoting metta87
{quote} Thks, will try it. Just to be sure, so the goal is to place the line in the sand in a place where there is lot of volatility so price won’t zigzag around the line too much before shooting in one direction for us to bank some pips ? Have you tried this concept on charrts like rehko or grids ?
Yes. I wish to eliminate too short cycles of price which are not profitable in my strategy. Renko charts also have chop. This is one London open for oil:

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  • #163
  • Jan 5, 2019 10:46am Jan 5, 2019 10:46am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Yes. I wish to eliminate too short cycles of price which are not profitable in my strategy. Renko charts also have chop. This is one London open for oil: {image}
On the chart you posted, where would u have put your line in the sand, and why ?
Also do you have bias in the direction of price when it crosses your line ? ( only up or only down)
And how instead of waiting for some cycles, we try to predict only the next rehko, p.o.b or pnf bar. R:r 1:1 with a very small touch of martingale.
especially on these types of bars ( https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...5&d=1510854615 ) what do you think ?
  • #164
  • Jan 5, 2019 11:16am Jan 5, 2019 11:16am
Quoting metta87
{quote} On the chart you posted, where would u have put your line in the sand, and why ? Also do you have bias in the direction of price when it crosses your line ? ( only up or only down) And how instead of waiting for some cycles, we try to predict only the next rehko, p.o.b or pnf bar. R:r 1:1 with a very small touch of martingale. especially on these types of bars ( https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...5&d=1510854615 ) what do you think ?
My line is at the daily open. Why? Because if the price is above the daily open, the total "betting" of the day so far has gone in the upwards direction and it is optimal to bet in that direction. If shorts are to overtake, the price will go down (and the EA will start selling). So I buy above the line and sell below.
Renko is made for the purpose of illustrating going in one direction. If it were to represent a completely random data, the probability of the renko to continue is 66% - because it needs to make twice the path to change color. In reality, it is more than that, but you also need to pay for spread.
My EA does not aim at predicting anything. Just cuts losses asap and tries to catch large directional movements. The distribution of returns is fat tailed - large directional movements are more frequent than in a random walk. That is the only "edge" of this system.

Cheers,
k
  • #165
  • Jan 5, 2019 2:12pm Jan 5, 2019 2:12pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} My line is at the daily open. Why? Because if the price is above the daily open, the total "betting" of the day so far has gone in the upwards direction and it is optimal to bet in that direction. If shorts are to overtake, the price will go down (and the EA will start selling). So I buy above the line and sell below. Renko is made for the purpose of illustrating going in one direction. If it were to represent a completely random data, the probability of the renko to continue is 66% - because it needs to make twice the path to change color....
it seems you know what you re doing, green pips to you
  • #166
  • Mar 20, 2020 11:17am Mar 20, 2020 11:17am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Interesting to compare the Dow with the Bayer’s pattern. As far as I can see, we are in the “champagne” phase... (Some time ago I calculated the resistances in Dow to be 25000 and 29370.) Hope I am not correct on this. k {image}
Damn.
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  • #167
  • Mar 21, 2020 4:51am Mar 21, 2020 4:51am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Damn. {image}
Imho, the bottom of DJI move is at around $5000. (again, I hope I am wrong)
k
  • #168
  • Mar 21, 2020 2:05pm Mar 21, 2020 2:05pm
Going all in on The Great Pumpkin trade idea is the best way to get rich quick.
Count Of Antwerp
  • #169
  • May 2, 2020 9:29pm May 2, 2020 9:29pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Ralome, For the tenth time, the moving average is an estimate of the mean. The standard deviation is then calculated as the square rooted (sum of squares of differences divided by number of samples for the mean). Simple moving average lags by half a period and that is why one needs to shift the MA back in time by half a period so that the lag is compensated. On the Wiki link it is called the central moving average, and I think this is what you are essentially doing in the green labels. {quote} The point is that the standard Bands don't do it (they do the procedure you outlined in the red), so I needed to do this shift in the code. I think the period of the moving average you are using is 4, so shift the MA back in time by two and you will see that it coincides with what you call the mean value. And THAT is MY formula, the formula in the Bands is the red one. k
Hi K,
So many years it is in front of my nose, without paid attention to it, omg ... There must be shift back some bars for the line, in order for SMA to build correctly ... and the empty space must be filled too. Standard deviation then will be calculated based on this , right ?
The problem now is to choose how big is the standard deviation value that we must use here, and still not sure for now ... weather this can be applied to other instrument too (ex. Gold ) or only for major currency ? The ratio's of risk vs. profit can be minimized if we trade using this idea i think (but not so sure of it yet before proofing it ..), but ... it appear another question in my head : is this deviation value can be used for all time frame (Same value) , or it must be different for each time frame ... because it is based on the big amount of bars built in each time frame, and it is different ?
Thanks K.
  • #170
  • Last Post: Edited 7:01am Dec 21, 2022 6:23am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting kprsa
Not working as expected, price went up almost 100 pips. Even though one could argue that a bounce from the brown envolepe could be expected in the picture above, the agreement in direction of the four envelopes/MAs was suggesting a more likely move down. {image}
Hi K,
One thing is not so clear to me until now, that is the envelope must be shift to the left... because the mid line is shifted to left too (1/2 period for MA) and better for another kind of MA.. . and in result, the envelope can not be easily calculated, because we need future datas ... which are impossible...
Below is my idea (this could be wrong, but I must try to prove it to myself ... before I give up)... ... as I just know that there is another EMA that better than all normal kind of MA available at MT4, but not sure about the shift... can it be smaller among others , let's say incremental of below part???
About the empty future data at envelope, may be we can take the "flip flop" distance of each bar? it means, it must be +/- or -/+. is it sound logic, or just a dream ? or we just draw a horizontal line to fill it, because the envelope does not changed much ... hmm so many possibilities ...
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