Attachments: Trading the Cable swings via averages

Trading the Cable swings via averages

#6,141
Mar 18, 2020 7:21pm Mar 18, 2020 7:21pm

Nala66
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts

Quoting 44johnw

Disliked

{quote} Alan with Des indicator it gives 1824 as the Target. I was trying to work out how you got 1753 but it had me buggered. {image}

Ignored

yes I worked it out mathematically last night and it was...
A 46046 minus B 22364 = 23682

C was 41925 minus the 23682

Giving us D = 1.18243

Just goes to show on these high time frames we need to do the numbers properly and not rely on the thickness of the lines.

Of course this is what Des's tool does for you automatically...

#6,142
Mar 18, 2020 7:37pm Mar 18, 2020 7:37pm

Nala66
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts

Rapidly running out of targets as we enter this unknown zone but the 5m is still producing targets...

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The lower one is way down there at 1.13985.

From the onset of the 108 bar on the 5m chart if we are trading below the EMA then stay short.

Trying to second guess the market by thinking whatever is a bottom is just deluding yourselves. Go always with the reality and accept that it has to make pull backs which you can attempt to exploit. If you fail it is no big deal and only a small loss compared to getting it right and making a ton of money.

This is why we make tentative entries to test the waters before we boil our heads. The sooner you get use to losing the odd few pips and capitalising on the far bigger wins the better. It is a habit we must train for, lose a little v win a lot.

#6,143
Mar 18, 2020 9:33pm Mar 18, 2020 9:33pm

Traffex
| Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 366 Posts

Is it always safe to do nothing, if there is a pullback, but no level and /or no divergence?[/quote]

#6,144
Mar 19, 2020 1:00am Mar 19, 2020 1:00am

Nala66
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts

Quoting Traffex

Disliked

Is it always safe to do nothing, if there is a pullback, but no level and /or no divergence?

Ignored

[/quote]

Not sure in what context you are talking about here. There is always a level which is the EMA and if trading is below it then we shart the pull backs irrespective of whether is a div or not but most likely there will be, a two bar test will determine your entry and stop. However it is nice to know where the price itself may be heading and at this time that is difficult to do.

So if we wait a while until things sort themselves out it may be beneficial to do so.

We need the things to qualify for a trade.

The entry
The stop
The target
The money management.

#6,145
Mar 19, 2020 5:10am Mar 19, 2020 5:10am

Jazz1964
| Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Trader | 942 Posts

Hi All,
just want to say that I will be off for a while. An health issue in the family makes me distracted. Next to that it doesn't feel good to me to be involved in money trading now with the Corona virus causing so much issues and grief. I want to find a way to be available in some way. Just a personal thought.
All the best to everybody and see you later.

Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!

#6,146
Mar 19, 2020 5:30am Mar 19, 2020 5:30am

des_b
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 188 Posts

Quoting Jazz1964

Disliked

Hi All, just want to say that I will be off for a while. An health issue in the family makes me distracted. Next to that it doesn't feel good to me to be involved in money trading now with the Corona virus causing so much issues and grief. I want to find a way to be available in some way. Just a personal thought. All the best to everybody and see you later.

Ignored

Hope you and your family keep well,

Kind Regards
Des

#6,147
Mar 19, 2020 10:39am Mar 19, 2020 10:39am

huskyboy
| Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,425 Posts

Quoting Jazz1964

Disliked

Hi All, just want to say that I will be off for a while. An health issue in the family makes me distracted. Next to that it doesn't feel good to me to be involved in money trading now with the Corona virus causing so much issues and grief. I want to find a way to be available in some way. Just a personal thought. All the best to everybody and see you later.

Ignored

All the best to you and your family.
Hopefully we'll se you back in a short time in a Corona free world.

Vriendelijke groeten uit België.

#6,148
Mar 19, 2020 11:46am Mar 19, 2020 11:46am

Jazz1964
| Joined Apr 2008 | Status: Trader | 942 Posts

Thank you Husky and Des. Wish all of you good health!

Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!

#6,149
Mar 19, 2020 3:23pm Mar 19, 2020 3:23pm

Shuggy
| Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Trader | 5 Posts

Hi Jazz sorry to hear of your new challenge, I hope you and your family will be safe through this awful time, I will miss your input and look forward to you returning, God Bless. Hugh

#6,150
Mar 19, 2020 4:48pm Mar 19, 2020 4:48pm

Traffex
| Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 366 Posts

Quoting Nala66

Disliked

{quote}

Ignored

Not sure in what context you are talking about here. There is always a level which is the EMA and if trading is below it then we shart the pull backs irrespective of whether is a div or not but most likely there will be, a two bar test will determine your entry and stop. However it is nice to know where the price itself may be heading and at this time that is difficult to do. So if we wait a while until things sort themselves out it may be beneficial to do so. We need the things to qualify for a trade. The entry The stop The target The money management.[/quote]

If you have the direction (H1) and trade in the 5 min, which divergence against the direction do you trade (hedge) and which not?

#6,151
Mar 19, 2020 7:30pm Mar 19, 2020 7:30pm

Nala66
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts

Not to be an alarmist but if this monthly chart does turn out to be an AB =CD then the GBP is in for a roasting in the coming months.

I worked these numbers out mathematically so they should be more accurate than just drawing lines.

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#6,152
Mar 19, 2020 10:36pm Mar 19, 2020 10:36pm

Nala66
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts

Quoting Traffex

Disliked

{quote} Not sure in what context you are talking about here. There is always a level which is the EMA and if trading is below it then we shart the pull backs irrespective of whether is a div or not but most likely there will be, a two bar test will determine your entry and stop. However it is nice to know where the price itself may be heading and at this time that is difficult to do. So if we wait a while until things sort themselves out it may be beneficial to do so. We need the things to qualify for a trade. The entry The stop The target The money...

Ignored

If you have the direction (H1) and trade in the 5 min, which divergence against the direction do you trade (hedge) and which not?[/quote]

None of them unless you wish to. The point of a hedge is to protect the gains you have made so you only apply it when you believe the 1 hour is at a point it may turn for a tad such as any of the numerous ZOO points we have considered.

Most of the time in a bear trend a bull div will fail so you should be looking for bear divs to add to your positions until you reach a 1 hour ZOO point.

Consider the chart below where wee have shorted to stay with the trend. Price runs into a 1hour bull div i.e. a ZOO point. We hedge all the shorts to protect our profit.

Price continues to fall and the first and second div fail. What is happening to our profits we have locked in...absolutely nothing we are safe and don't need to take any other action at this point.

Then the 3rd divs kicks in returning price to the EMA so once the hedge is making money why are we holding onto the shorts...we close them and our stop protects the hedge + 1 pip when it become safe to do so.

Now having said all this it is totally not needed unless you are trying to own the world. the profits just from the shorts are huge. Better to restrict your hedging of trades when the market is far less volatile.

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If you are really desperate for the additional money you could have held the hedge until price reached the average swing level once it broke the EMA.

The hedge has the additional properties of grouping all the trades placed into one lot so it is much easier to control stops and TP's with only the one to make adjustments on.

#6,153
Mar 20, 2020 3:08am Mar 20, 2020 3:08am

Traffex
| Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 366 Posts

Quoting Nala66

Disliked

{quote} If you have the direction (H1) and trade in the 5 min, which divergence against the direction do you trade (hedge) and which not?

Ignored

None of them unless you wish to. The point of a hedge is to protect the gains you have made so you only apply it when you believe the 1 hour is at a point it may turn for a tad such as any of the numerous ZOO points we have considered. Most of the time in a bear trend a bull div will fail so you should be looking for bear divs to add to your positions until you reach a 1 hour ZOO point. Consider the chart below where wee have shorted to stay with the trend. Price runs into a 1hour bull div i.e. a ZOO point. We hedge all the shorts to protect our profit. Price continues to fall and the first and second div fail. What is happening to our profits we have locked in...absolutely nothing we are safe and don't need to take any other action at this point. Then the 3rd divs kicks in returning price to the EMA so once the hedge is making money why are we holding onto the shorts...we close them and our stop protects the hedge + 1 pip when it become safe to do so. Now having said all this it is totally not needed unless you are trying to own the world. the profits just from the shorts are huge. Better to restrict your hedging of trades when the market is far less volatile. {image} If you are really desperate for the additional money you could have held the hedge until price reached the average swing level once it broke the EMA. The hedge has the additional properties of grouping all the trades placed into one lot so it is much easier to control stops and TP's with only the one to make adjustments on.[/quote]

Thank you very much, Alan. Now it's clearer

#6,154
Mar 20, 2020 8:12am Mar 20, 2020 8:12am

Del62a
| Joined Dec 2016 | Status: Trader | 66 Posts

Quoting Jazz1964

Disliked

Hi All, just want to say that I will be off for a while. An health issue in the family makes me distracted. Next to that it doesn't feel good to me to be involved in money trading now with the Corona virus causing so much issues and grief. I want to find a way to be available in some way. Just a personal thought. All the best to everybody and see you later.

Ignored

Jazz

Best wishes to you and family

Del

#6,155
Mar 20, 2020 8:02pm Mar 20, 2020 8:02pm

Nala66
Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts

For your diary.

Yes the same processes apply to other pairs.

Here below is the monthly chart of the AUD/USD with a very nice AB = CD

Though the lot sizes are very much cheaper I wouldn't trade this pair because over a month it barely makes 50 pips in normal conditions.

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