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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #6,761
  • Mar 18, 2020 8:46am Mar 18, 2020 8:46am
Quoting renkotop
WTI drops and Drops. Do Saudis still earn Money on this low Level?
Yes they do
  • #6,762
  • Mar 18, 2020 8:58am Mar 18, 2020 8:58am
Quoting renkotop
WTI drops and Drops. Do Saudis still earn Money on this low Level?
The cost of conventional oil varies so much that Saudi Arabia can produce at under $10 per barrel, while worldwide costs range from $30 to $40 a barrel.

source:
https://www.investopedia.com/article...tional-oil.asp

However they need $ 70/80 for the nations budget
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #6,763
  • Mar 18, 2020 9:12am Mar 18, 2020 9:12am
WTI drops to 17-year lows in sub-$24.00/bbl levels
18 March 2020, 17:02

 

  1. Prices of the WTI drops to levels last seen in 2002.
  2. COVID-19 fears, price war, oversupply jitters weigh on oil.
  3. The EIA’s weekly report is coming up next on the docket.

Prices of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil are extending the downside to the area below the $24.00 mark per barrel on Wednesday.
WTI in 17-year lows around $24.00
The black gold remains well on the defensive for yet another session as there is no signs of any respite from the selling pressure.
Crude oil trades on a much weaker tone on Wednesday, always against the backdrop of rising panic around the coronavirus and its impact on the global economy along with almost omnipresent oversupply concerns and the ongoing Russia-Saudi Arabia price war, which has exacerbated the downside as of late.
All in all, prices of the West Texas Intermediate are navigating the $24.00 zone on Wednesday - area last visited in April 2002 - with prospects of a rebound absent for the time being.
In the meantime, the API reported a 0.421M barrels drop during last week late on Tuesday, reversing a tad the previous 6.4m barrels build. Later today, the EIA will report on the US crude oil inventories for the past seven days.
What to look for around WTI
Crude oil prices remain under pressure amidst challenges from the demand side via the impact of the COVID-19 on the global economy, and particularly on the Chinese economy, which is the second largest oil importer in the world. Negative drivers on the supply side come from the ongoing Russia-Saudi Arabia price war, which is expected to remain unabated in the near-term and aggravated by recent news that Saudi Arabia plans to increase its oil production and exports by more than 10M bpd in the short-term.
WTI significant levels
At the moment the barrel of WTI is losing 10.02% at $24.11 and a breach of $23.62 (2020 low Mar.18) would expose $23.31 (monthly low Apr.2002) and finally $21.62 (monthly low Mar.2002). On the upside, the next resistance lines up at $36.28 (high Mar.11) seconded by $40.00 (round level) and then $41.58 (21-day SMA).

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #6,764
  • Mar 18, 2020 9:15am Mar 18, 2020 9:15am
Inventory numbers up soon. The reaction should be interesting
  • #6,765
  • Mar 18, 2020 9:57am Mar 18, 2020 9:57am
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} Yes they do
If this would happen the CAD and NOK would be dead….
  • #6,766
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:06am Mar 18, 2020 10:06am
Quoting renkotop
WTI drops and Drops. Do Saudis still earn Money on this low Level?
Until 14 at least as far as i have heard

US is losing money

Russia can last this way for 6/10 years....
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #6,767
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:08am Mar 18, 2020 10:08am
Is is even possible for crude to go to 0 ?

Free oil for everybody?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #6,768
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:12am Mar 18, 2020 10:12am
At this rate we will be sub $20 by the end of the day
  • #6,769
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:14am Mar 18, 2020 10:14am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Until 14 at least as far as i have heard US is losing money Russia can last this way for 6/10 years....
I don’t buy that Russia can last that long. It’s a bluff and they will be forced to come to the table shortly
  • #6,770
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:17am Mar 18, 2020 10:17am
Russsia feels threatened by US shale and doesn’t want to lose market share to them by cutting production
  • #6,771
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:17am Mar 18, 2020 10:17am
Quoting kuroro001
Is is even possible for crude to go to 0 ? Free oil for everybody?
It's just unbelievable!

Cant see how negative interest will work in Oil -- Please take our oil, will pay you!!

Have been watching the price drop for so long, just have to wonder - which type of mindset will someone need to be able to enter a short trade at this time??
  • #6,772
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:18am Mar 18, 2020 10:18am
Quoting copi88
See how they absorbed the highest volume of the day. Value was going up. Every time a pivot level was broken lower they bought that liquidity. Those red arrows are my buys. {image} one more {image}
Nice trading strategy but I prefer my simple Renko strategy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,773
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:25am Mar 18, 2020 10:25am
Quoting Kafin
{quote} It's just unbelievable! Cant see how negative interest will work in Oil -- Please take our oil, will pay you!! Have been watching the price drop for so long, just have to wonder - which type of mindset will someone need to be able to enter a short trade at this time??
My mindset is to swing both ways making money on the way up and also on the way down
  • #6,774
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:39am Mar 18, 2020 10:39am
Anyone been in the business long enough to know how previous oil-price-wars ended?
  • #6,775
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:45am Mar 18, 2020 10:45am
Russia and Saudi Arabia need to stop their fight and save oil before going down completely
  • #6,776
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:51am Mar 18, 2020 10:51am
Quoting Alex0
Russia and Saudi Arabia need to stop their fight and save oil before going down completely
I think US-producers should be included in the production-cut discussions as well, after all they are all in the same boat.

I guess they might have tried, it might be difficult to deal with so many individual companies, some of which will/might be cheating behind the scene.

Is there any possibility of US-producers voluntarily agreeing to a production cap? not sure if this even makes any sense
  • #6,777
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:57am Mar 18, 2020 10:57am
Quoting Kafin
Anyone been in the business long enough to know how previous oil-price-wars ended?
Heh, your answer might be in question

Some charts that might give us some clues...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: bo_story.a.png Size: 225 KB
Attached Image
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6,778
  • Mar 18, 2020 11:07am Mar 18, 2020 11:07am
Quoting Kafin
{quote} I think US-producers should be included in the production-cut discussions as well, after all they are all in the same boat. I guess they might have tried, it might be difficult to deal with so many individual companies, some of which will/might be cheating behind the scene. Is there any possibility of US-producers voluntarily agreeing to a production cap? not sure if this even makes any sense
US producers are not a cartel like opec and so the thousands of different companies In the states act independently. in fact it is illegal for them to collude this way
  • #6,779
  • Mar 18, 2020 11:41am Mar 18, 2020 11:41am
Quoting Kafin
{quote} It's just unbelievable! Cant see how negative interest will work in Oil -- Please take our oil, will pay you!! Have been watching the price drop for so long, just have to wonder - which type of mindset will someone need to be able to enter a short trade at this time??
If you are trend follower...but selling at 20 dollars ? no way

I'll keep adding unti we hit 0, either Oil disapper or we bounce back to 60 dollars
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #6,780
  • Mar 18, 2020 11:44am Mar 18, 2020 11:44am
Re: Russia.
please take into account the virus and the scale of economic aid worldwide.
As of today Russia has only about 150 cases.
So I'd say they can afford low prices for next 4-6 weeks, more or less. Not 6 years.
BTW. started to buy oil, avg price 27. Small position not to allow Mr Margin to call me
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