Is this the big reversal point for the dollar? | Forex Factory

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Is this the big reversal point for the dollar?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 27, 2006 8:57am Oct 27, 2006 8:57am
Some very good price channel targets have been hit today on the major dollar crosses. Is this the big dollar long swing trade?
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #2
  • Oct 27, 2006 9:01am Oct 27, 2006 9:01am
Go USD long and find out
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #3
  • Oct 27, 2006 9:03am Oct 27, 2006 9:03am
Quoting africanpip
Go USD long and find out
Already did my friend
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #4
  • Oct 27, 2006 9:05am Oct 27, 2006 9:05am
may just follow you
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #5
  • Oct 27, 2006 9:13am Oct 27, 2006 9:13am
Quoting FXopportunist
Already did my friend
Which pair are you targeting. GMT +2 4h chart opened 1 pip lower on both cable and euro and both heading south at the moment. how far south do you think?
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #6
  • Oct 27, 2006 1:10pm Oct 27, 2006 1:10pm
Quoting africanpip
Which pair are you targeting. GMT +2 4h chart opened 1 pip lower on both cable and euro and both heading south at the moment. how far south do you think?
unless eurusd towards 2450-, it could not be called a reversal

prepare yourself and fasten your seatbelt, otherwise stay away and wait
凹凸 only
  • #7
  • Oct 27, 2006 2:26pm Oct 27, 2006 2:26pm
Short GBP/USD when it bounces off the 1.9000 level for a THIRD time. It has done that in the recent past, and chances are that it'll do it again in the case of a reversal. So why not just wait till Monday or tuesday...???
  • #8
  • Oct 27, 2006 2:27pm Oct 27, 2006 2:27pm
I estimated a bounce off of the 1.9030 level, so I'm gonna wait for that level to be hit.
  • #9
  • Oct 27, 2006 2:57pm Oct 27, 2006 2:57pm
yeah, the t/line down from the summer highs has put a lid on it today...but I'd like to see the back of 8650 before piling in with any degree of confidence.....

9085-9100 horizontal res zones are marrying the Q2 ascending t/lines farther up....if this leg continues to attract support here, those levels will be reached pretty quickly imo.........

8775 will no doubt attract att'n if the (Cable) Bears attempt to run it back aggressively from here, but until that initial supp creaks, it's still a strong play......
  • #10
  • Oct 27, 2006 4:46pm Oct 27, 2006 4:46pm
Quoting Buk
yeah, the t/line down from the summer highs has put a lid on it today...but I'd like to see the back of 8650 before piling in with any degree of confidence.....

9085-9100 horizontal res zones are marrying the Q2 ascending t/lines farther up....if this leg continues to attract support here, those levels will be reached pretty quickly imo.........

8775 will no doubt attract att'n if the (Cable) Bears attempt to run it back aggressively from here, but until that initial supp creaks, it's still a strong play......
Hello Buk,

Since the pound has been in a 500 pip range since the begining of august, I would question waiting for 350 pip move before getting in.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #11
  • Edited 1:35am Oct 28, 2006 1:31am | Edited 1:35am
Hi FXo,

sure, these Big Numbers up here (8900 thru 9150) dangle a tempting bait to short any weakness on the part of the Cable Bulls to push on past the summers highs.....& I'm not suggesting there's no merit in adopting that stance, it's just personally I'd like to see those lower levels hurdled before maybe switching to a longer range $ Bull outlook.........

I was posting that view in line with the title of the thread.....I'm just not fully convinced we're at the 'big reversal point on the dollar' at present levels?!

like you, I'll play it (Cable) to the short side if I see any signs of exhaustive behaviour on the smaller frames, but I'll be awful wary of attempting to compound shorts until those 1.8775-1.8650 hurdles are cleanly put away.....

we all play it as we see it....no right or wrong - long as we make $$'s along the route

there'll be one or two rough rides in store before it shows it's true colors, I just feel we might have another small push down (to at least c9150) on the buck before it decides to turn, that's all........

good trading to you!
  • #12
  • Oct 28, 2006 2:14am Oct 28, 2006 2:14am
had the same thought myself, though i would want to see what economic data is to be released on monday before placing a trade, to see if this trade had anywhere to run after any sort of retracement/reversal. I also noted there seemed once again to be few buyers for the eur/usd at 1.2750 or above.

My only other concern is trading during the week of nfp, is always a pain and makes little or no sense whatsoever, so normally i would not trade

The same happened on thursday night into friday morning and the fundamentals were there to back it up so i grabbed 15 pips, nice and easy. then i awaited for the upwards trend to be confirmed as we headed closer to the gdp release and as predicted again by myself 11.00 gmt it started, i got on board, closer to the release ie 15 seconds before i set my limits and stops to get me out with at least 5 pips still in tact if it went pear shaped, and a further 40 pips above if all went well.
  • #13
  • Oct 28, 2006 7:37am Oct 28, 2006 7:37am
I think there is a mixing of strategies going on a bit in this thread. A swing trade is a completely different animal and a completely different thought process from a short term trade. Seldom does a swing position let you in with tight stop, go positive and never look back. Swing trading is more of an overbought oversold mentality and it needs a fair amount of room. These things require a much smaller position size than an intraday trades too.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #14
  • Oct 28, 2006 8:58am Oct 28, 2006 8:58am
Quoting FXopportunist
Hello Buk,

Since the pound has been in a 500 pip range since the begining of august, I would question waiting for 350 pip move before getting in.
and why wait to short at 9000 to get just 30 pips, when a strong move down can get you at least 400, what is 30 compared to that?
  • #15
  • Oct 28, 2006 2:44pm Oct 28, 2006 2:44pm
The only thing that is eating at me about this trade is that when you zoom out on the 4 HR of the pound, it looks like a bull flag consolodation pattern. And as the techies know, the price usual leaves these in the same direction that it enter.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #16
  • Oct 28, 2006 4:33pm Oct 28, 2006 4:33pm
Quoting FXopportunist
The only thing that is eating at me about this trade is that when you zoom out on the 4 HR of the pound, it looks like a bull flag consolodation pattern. And as the techies know, the price usual leaves these in the same direction that it enter.
Zoom out the Euro Chart as well & you will see almost the same picture


Thanks,

Nader
  • #17
  • Oct 28, 2006 6:22pm Oct 28, 2006 6:22pm
Quoting FXopportunist
The only thing that is eating at me about this trade is that when you zoom out on the 4 HR of the pound, it looks like a bull flag consolodation pattern. And as the techies know, the price usual leaves these in the same direction that it enter.
Is that pattern valid on a 4h chart? My understanding was that it was valid on dailys and longer.
  • #18
  • Oct 28, 2006 8:12pm Oct 28, 2006 8:12pm
Quoting wwwin
Is that pattern valid on a 4h chart? My understanding was that it was valid on dailys and longer.
I have never heard a technician say that a pattern only works on certain time frames. What happened to the idea of fractal behavior?
  • #19
  • Oct 28, 2006 8:58pm Oct 28, 2006 8:58pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I have never heard a technician say that a pattern only works on certain time frames. What happened to the idea of fractal behavior?
The books that I have read on forex technical analysis unequivocally state that using formations on less than dailycharts is not reliable and not to be used.
  • #20
  • Oct 28, 2006 9:07pm Oct 28, 2006 9:07pm
Quoting wwwin
The books that I have read on forex technical analysis unequivocally state that using formations on less than dailycharts is not reliable and not to be used.
I was not aware that there were technical analysis books that applied to forex only. Perhaps you could list your sources so that we can learn why we should stop trading these profitable intraday patterns.
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