All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
- #6,725
- Mar 15, 2020 3:23pm Mar 15, 2020 3:23pm
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #6,727
- Mar 15, 2020 4:21pm Mar 15, 2020 4:21pm
- | Joined Apr 2018 | Status: Trader | 1,732 Posts
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
- #6,728
- Mar 15, 2020 7:35pm Mar 15, 2020 7:35pm
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Still a total mystery | 3,569 Posts
Funny thing, there is already a bailout/help talks for shale companies in US, so let's see how long this POKER/HAND can go on 
But yeah, there is also the corona effect... So it will be interesting what happens in the next 2 weeks! Meanwhile I prefer to PRESERVER my profits instead of risking being BEAR trapped. Won't fall for this one... AWAITING to be on the BUY SIDE... prefer to WAIT till then.
But yeah, there is also the corona effect... So it will be interesting what happens in the next 2 weeks! Meanwhile I prefer to PRESERVER my profits instead of risking being BEAR trapped. Won't fall for this one... AWAITING to be on the BUY SIDE... prefer to WAIT till then.
Can you afford to take that chance?
I know many here maybe daytrading oil and are looking at cents in regards to price levels of support and resistance but here is a bigger picture of where oil still might be headed. If oil doesn't hold that 26 dollar level, which I don't think it will but, I've been wrong plenty of times so take it for what it's worth... I think oil could revisit levels from the 90's. The next support in the dollar levels I see is around 17.50 give or take and I think the momentum down has more room to go as well. Again this is in a larger time frame although it didn't take long to drop to these levels from the previously mentioned all important 42 dollar level.
- #6,730
- Mar 15, 2020 11:37pm Mar 15, 2020 11:37pm
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #6,731
- Mar 15, 2020 11:42pm Mar 15, 2020 11:42pm
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #6,733
- Mar 16, 2020 2:00am Mar 16, 2020 2:00am
- | Joined Apr 2018 | Status: Trader | 1,732 Posts
We may have a week long test of 32.30, a pull back to this price tomor wouldn't surprise ...31.30 still support so gauge it from there
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
- #6,736
- Mar 16, 2020 10:02am Mar 16, 2020 10:02am
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return:
54.4%
- #6,738
- Mar 16, 2020 12:42pm Mar 16, 2020 12:42pm
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Still a total mystery | 3,569 Posts
Congrats to all the guys that have the balls to go into this I am still waiting to join on the buyside because I do not think this can continue for long... Federal help for shale companies already under talk... But! I am always ready to admit I was wrong and jump on the other side So will wait for the rest of this week and than SHALE decide
I am still waiting to join on the buyside because I do not think this can continue for long... Federal help for shale companies already under talk... But! I am always ready to admit I was wrong and jump on the other side So will wait for the rest of this week and than SHALE decide Can you afford to take that chance?
- #6,740
- Mar 17, 2020 3:57am Mar 17, 2020 3:57am
{quote} Retest of the high on lower volume with a spike in volume as it tests through the high and get stopped again. Is the High of the retest-bar expected to reach the high of the trigger-bar, or getting into-the-box is OK? Is there any minimum ratio of the volume of the retest-bar to the trigger-bar, or anything above average is good enough? Thanks for sharing!
1.What did they do with the volume - Large volume bars are used by institutions to either distribute or start their accumulations. Institutions are not that interested in price. They are interested in Value and Volume.
2.What did they do with the liquidity - Every time a pivot is formed there is hidden liquidity above/below those pivots in the form of stops. When price travels through a pivot, does it immediately reject and trade back inside or does it continue on ie have they bought or sold that liquidity.
By monitoring volume and liquidity you can get clues as to what the institutions are doing.
The most difficult thing for them is to accumulate sufficient volume and will need to manipulate the market to do this. They will create patterns in the market to find buyers at higher prices if they want to be short or sellers at lower prices if they want to be long. Purple line below is how their models value the market. They will see that its going down so will start to manipulate price in the opposite direction to encourage buyer into the market.
They will keep capping the market till they reach their target ie they will sell 100 on the high vol up bars and then buy back 50 on the retracements to cap the market and keep it going up.
Once they have enough they run the stops at the top and absorb all the liq there and then run the the sell stops below using that liquidity to begin exiting their short position. They will need to exit all the way down when volume appears.
Those sell stops help accelerate the sell trade as those buyers are forced to exit their longs.
This AM -
They will take price in the opposite direction of value (purple line) to they can build alpha. ie get a premium on the price they will sell at. Its cheapest do this during the asian session when volumes are thin.
The biggest volume of the session is absorbed and reversed so you know there is an institutional seller at this price. As price goes back up its on decreasing volume and each time there is a high vol up bar it gets absorbed. They take out the top of the Asian session and absorb all the liquidity (buy stops) up there. They have found found buyers at a higher price.
My sell was at the yellow arrow at the 25 wholesale price level. The safe trade would be at the blue arrow as it rejects that liquidity and trades backside value.
Boxing clever since 76.