Let's Trade Options

Esp. after the travel ban. Not expecting a bounce.

ual, dal, aal...major carriers to europe from US....could be down a bit tomorrow...

bargain hunting

SAVE

adt

Well, I've been out of town all day and just got back home....pretty safe to say that SPY 292 CALL isn't going to do anything. I will, however probably get into a SPY CALL sometimes tomorrow, maybe right at the open, depending on futures. But I want a good SPY CALL before next week.

Had a few low-ball bids hit today, good or bad, but they should all make money:

FDX Apr17 140 CALL @ $0.75 which brings the average down to $0.96 because it was a buttload

BP Apr17 28 CALL @ $0.45 which brings the average down to $0.66 and I have a CUBIC buttload of them now

$VIX Mar18 47.5 PUT @ $1.55 Like I said, just stick something out there for the VIX and it might get hit. This was trading right at $15 at the close yesterday

Funny how trading goes: looking at my trading account tonight, I've had the most number of losses in a three week period than I have had in many, many years (I came close when my charting program was screwed up for that month a couple of years ago), but I have made more money in these past three weeks than I have in quite a while.

That said, however, I would rather forgo the huge swings in the market and just plug and chug like normal. These swings are exciting, but I would much rather trade a high confidence trade via my charts than with my gut, because the charts help take the emotion out of it. Know whut I mean, Vern?.....

Big moves not so easy to trade with options, high iv's mean options are way over-priced, makes most strategies expensive. Predictable, well-behaved markets my preference anyday.

/es up >30, you'd think maybe some ginormous FOMO would give us a green Friday, at least. Your VIX put will make some fast money maybe.

If you think the selloff and all the virus stuff will calm down in the next month or so .selling call spread in VXX is worth looking into.Nice drop in its price over night.

....I am always looking at selling SPX verts, but Wary about that now with these outsized moves.

In the following:

SPY Mar27 282 CALL @ $2.15

Added to:

$VIX Mar18 47.5 PUT @ $1.05, bringing average down to $1.3

Might get rid of this sometimes today. Weekends are when all the greeks change a lot.....

Out of:

$VIX Mar18 47.5 PUT @ $2.55 up from $1.30

Gonna see what the SPY 282 CALL does next week...should be good for some money.

/ES limit down 3x in the last 5 days, also 1 limit up in there too.

I have to believe we will break the VIX record in the coming week.

when that happens, how you gonna trade it?

long-term, VIX will trade below 30, all big spikes revert. Just allow enough time....a spike to 90 will revert to 35 or less. Gotta be a trading opp there, no?

I'm gonna trade PUTs. I've traded the VIX probably 50 times since 2008 (heck, I've traded it 7 times in the last couple of weeks!) when it spikes up and every time, it wants to fall as soon as possible. If you can afford the near-the-money strike price with a week or two out, you make money every time. With straight PUTs, it doesn't have to move down much to be profitable.

I wish I could say this about all my trades, but I have never lost money on a VIX PUT (knocking on wood, rubbing rabbit's foot, looking for a four leaf clover). But it needs to be a big spike before I trade it, not just up to 30 from 20, but when it goes up a lot and quickly, I just look at that as free money....

....well,

a) you have to pay alot for those puts as the iv's will be thru the roof near the spike
b) you need to sell them pretty quick, on the way down since the iv's will be sliding and so will the puts' value

If we get a really big spike (towards 90 & more) I will load up on fotm puts like maybe @ $30 but also with a lot of time, out to July at least. Then I would look to sell puts against those longs as the spike came down.

July VIX 30 puts could go to <$2 in a monster spike....

I am not going crazy, keeping a lot of money in cash. It's not inconceivable that this crash could be a full reset, they could close the markets for weeks or months. Good luck on getting anything back from your open trades if that happens.

will b watching VXX, too, for a spike >$50, to buy the $26-$30 Sep puts for <$2

No, not really. All of the PUTs I've bought over the last couple of weeks have been <$3, with most right around $2 or less. So I would rather spend $2 on a near-the-money PUT with a week or so out and close the trade in a day or so than to have to pay the same amount and have to wait months to make probably close to the same profit. Like last Friday: I bought N-T-M (47.5) VIX PUTs for $1.05 (VIX at around 73-ish) before noon, and a couple of hours later sold them at $2.55 (VIX around 63-ish) ...(and I saw where they went up to $3.50 right before the close)....so 25 contracts cost $2625, and a few hours later I sold for $6375, which meant I banked a profit of $3750. I just can't really justify having that same money tied up for a few months when I can make close to the same profit in a few hours and be able to move on to something else.

So, if it spikes up to 90 and I'm at my computer, I'll get something like Mar25 55-65 PUTs, somewhere in that range, because they are close enough to make money as it drops some and they will be cheap (<$3, probably around $2), and when it drops a little, I'll be in profit and never have to hold it until expiration or worry if it will eventually make my strike price or not

If the market closes, it won't just not open one day like it did after 9/11, there will be a notice to wind down trades, too many lawsuits would happen if they gave no notice for a 'planned' shutdown. And if I take a loss, I take a loss, but I can't base trading on something that might happen in a worse case scenario, otherwise I would always have to consider another terrorist attack causing the same thing.

Yep, short term straight PUTs and CALLs are just my thing, what can I say??…….