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  • #12,921
  • Mar 14, 2020 6:59am Mar 14, 2020 6:59am
GBPCAD Mid Month Planning

Big Boss

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3300 Pips to play around with..

Boss

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Big boss levels are respected and in play..

Worker

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Purple boxes are WCC.

Most pairs will gap again and I'll sit it out until Monday PM, I am managing other positions at the moment before I release more margin.

These strange times gives us opportunity but also significant risk. Respect these moves, I only trade max 5% leverage and try for 1% on most set ups.
I add in positions which IS leverage when it gets going positive.

BE SAFE and TRADE to TRADE another day EVERY day!
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #12,922
  • Mar 14, 2020 7:29am Mar 14, 2020 7:29am
Quoting BeyondTheSea
These strange times gives us opportunity but also significant risk. Respect these moves, I only trade max 5% leverage and try for 1% on most set ups. I add in positions which IS leverage when it gets going positive. BE SAFE and TRADE to TRADE another day EVERY day!
Thanks for the reminder - a gem of trading wisdom that meshes perfectly with rule #1: Capital Preservation - especially with my little people screaming at me 24/7 in these high volatilty markets - "you're missing out you klunkhead" that sort work...

When the dust settles there will undoubtedly be some very good long term opportunities - time to dig into the longer term, stress free PASR material...

Cheers
  • #12,923
  • Mar 15, 2020 11:46am Mar 15, 2020 11:46am
Quoting BeyondTheSea
GBPCAD Mid Month Planning Big Boss {image} 3300 Pips to play around with.. Boss {image} Big boss levels are respected and in play.. Worker {image} Purple boxes are WCC. Most pairs will gap again and I'll sit it out until Monday PM, I am managing other positions at the moment before I release more margin. These strange times gives us opportunity but also significant risk. Respect these moves, I only trade max 5% leverage and try for 1% on most set ups. I add in positions which IS leverage...

Hi BTS

I like your analysis of GbpCad. Quite frankly I have been sitting on the sidelines for more than a week now. Let's see what the new week brings...

Regards
Pete
  • #12,924
  • Mar 15, 2020 12:24pm Mar 15, 2020 12:24pm
Good Day All

GbpChf End of week Analysis

And I guess the question is will this support level hold? PASR will show the way so let's wait and see what happens...

Regards
Pete
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  • #12,925
  • Mar 15, 2020 1:34pm Mar 15, 2020 1:34pm
My thoughts on EUR USD [20 = 20 EMA] [50 = 50 SMA]
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  1. Price is directionless, between 20 and 50
  2. Volume is huge on the last red candle


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  1. 20 very strongly crosses 50, however ...
  2. Price is now directionless, between 20 and 50
  3. 20 and 50 are flat and parallel to each other
  4. Bearish candles have the biggest volume


Price has been downtrending in a descending channel. It seems buyers jumped in when the lower channel TL matched the minor level 1.08.

  1. Price convincingly left the channel by breaking the upper TL and closing above 20 and 50 (on both Daily & Weekly)
  2. Price tested minor resistance at 1.1456
  3. Buyers couldn't keep up and sellers dragged the price back down
  4. Prince found support on the Weekly 20 and 61.8 Fib retracement
  5. Eventually closed on the upper channel TL, now acting as dynamic support


Conclusion:
Monday close will tell us the direction of the pair, although it might be too late to jump it (in terms of RRR) for a basic PASR trade.

  • #12,926
  • Mar 16, 2020 4:59am Mar 16, 2020 4:59am
Quoting Udkox
My thoughts on EUR USD [20 = 20 EMA] [50 = 50 SMA] {image} Price is directionless, between 20 and 50 Volume is huge on the last red candle {image} 20 very strongly crosses 50, however ... Price is now directionless, between 20 and 50 20 and 50 are flat and parallel to each other Bearish candles have the biggest volume Price has been downtrending in a descending channel. It seems buyers jumped in when the lower channel TL matched the minor level 1.08. Price convincingly left the channel by breaking the upper TL and closing above 20 and 50 (on both...
Just a quick reply, what's the big boss telling you?

What does the boss tell you with the resistance marked and the long wick?

To me, I'd not be in a hurry to trade this pair, it's not showing clear direction.

And volume is useless in forex, it's too decentralized.
  • #12,927
  • Edited 1:50pm Mar 16, 2020 1:20pm | Edited 1:50pm
Thanks Rub, much appreciated.

Quoting Rub
volume is useless in forex, it's too decentralized.
I would never use volume in isolation, just along with other indicators and price to find confluence (?).

Quoting Rub
What does the boss tell you with the resistance marked and the long wick?
Market hesitation, no side is winning. Price trapped in between support and resistance.

Quoting Rub
what's the big boss telling you?
I see price downtrending, but the break above the TL makes me think there might be a trend change, sideways or uptrend.

I am in no rush to trade it, just analysing charts!
  • #12,928
  • Mar 16, 2020 2:00pm Mar 16, 2020 2:00pm
Quoting Udkox
My thoughts on EUR USD [20 = 20 EMA] [50 = 50 SMA] {image} Price is directionless, between 20 and 50 Volume is huge on the last red candle {image} 20 very strongly crosses 50, however ... Price is now directionless, between 20 and 50 20 and 50 are flat and parallel to each other Bearish candles have the biggest volume Price has been downtrending in a descending channel. It seems buyers jumped in when the lower channel TL matched the minor level 1.08. Price convincingly left the channel by breaking the upper TL and closing above 20 and 50 (on both...
Are those volumes on your charts?

I hope everyone's OK. I'm still following and reading charts. I've done OK the last few months but I'm still fighting myself, I will post some trades later.
  • #12,929
  • Mar 16, 2020 8:46pm Mar 16, 2020 8:46pm
Asx 200, because I'm off work at the moment and not going anywhere this morning. Taken on a demo account, because I've blown a couple of small accounts trading the 5 minute charts. Managed to double it so far this year trading no more than 2%, so I might try a live account again.

Still using a live account for higher time frames though!
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  • #12,930
  • Mar 16, 2020 8:52pm Mar 16, 2020 8:52pm
Quoting Udkox
Thanks Rub, much appreciated. {quote} I would never use volume in isolation, just along with other indicators and price to find confluence (?). {quote} Market hesitation, no side is winning. Price trapped in between support and resistance. {quote} I see price downtrending, but the break above the TL makes me think there might be a trend change, sideways or uptrend. I am in no rush to trade it, just analysing charts!
Good that you're not planning on trading it, there may be opportunities for basic PASR, but for those of us who're starting out or gone back to the beginning there's no clear trade.

Market hesitation, no side is winning. Price trapped in between support and resistance.

Good. Price went screaming up, but didn't close above the resistance, and in fact came back down again. Uncertainty is a good way to put it.

I see price downtrending, but the break above the TL makes me think there might be a trend change, sideways or uptrend.

Remember a trend line is more or less arbitrary, nearly everyone draws them differently. Maybe it tells you a trend is slowing, maybe it's telling you some bugger drew a random line on your chart.
  • #12,931
  • Mar 17, 2020 5:54am Mar 17, 2020 5:54am
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Dr. Joe reminder

PURE GOLD

Buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down.

He went on to make $millions doing this and I subsequently learned he passed away a very rich and contented man knowing that he had beaten the “whores” at their own game.

I learned all this in a few telephone conversations with him but he lost his patience with me when I still questioned his method. He wouldn’t answer my calls so I reverted back to faxes. Again, I can’t remember it word for word but I sent a simple fax saying:

“How do you know when to stop buying?”

On the same fax was his handwritten reply, “When it stops going up.”

So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up?”

His handwritten reply, “When it starts going down.”

So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up and starts going down?”

His handwritten reply, “When people start selling.”

After going round like this in riddles, I pleaded with him to “just give it to me straight”.

He sent a fax saying this would be his last communication with me and that if I didn’t understand how to buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down, I had no business trading.

His final paragraph was one which I ignored, like everything else he told me, until a couple of years ago when I realized what a dumb, stupid, arrogant, stubborn idiot I had been:

He said I would only be wrong twice using his simple method:

“Once when you buy at the top and once when you sell at the bottom.”

I just ignored this as a smart – ass answer but still tried to do what he said. Unfortunately, and as Sod’s law dictates, I tried to do it in a consolidation and lost on every trade which had me buying when I should have been selling etc.

I tried and lost again and then eventually lost my way in the quest for the Holy Grail in Indicator Land.

Now, with all my experience and thousands of lost $ behind me, the light came on!

My understanding of what he was telling me is this:

Buy when prices are moving up. Buy each retrace/dip. Keep buying until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the one trade you lose on.

Sell when prices are moving down. Sell each retrace/rally. Keep selling until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the second trade you lose on.

I have not traded like this as I have my own method/style now but on the look backs I have done it works very well. Obviously, the trendier the price, the better it works.

In my later communications with other floor traders, I told them about Dr. Joe and what he told me, and asked them if it was true. As you would expect, each and everyone vehemently rejected it as absolute rubbish.

Sometimes I wonder if old Dr. Joe was smoking something but then when I see those long legged neutral dojis before a significant move, I know he was right.

Thank you, Dr. Joe
  • #12,932
  • Mar 17, 2020 6:02am Mar 17, 2020 6:02am
Quoting Mhons
{image} Dr. Joe reminder PURE GOLD Buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down. He went on to make $millions doing this and I subsequently learned he passed away a very rich and contented man knowing that he had beaten the “whores” at their own game. I learned all this in a few telephone conversations with him but he lost his patience with me when I still questioned his method. He wouldn’t answer my calls so I reverted back to faxes. Again, I can’t remember it word for word but I sent a simple fax saying: “How do you know when to stop buying?”...
The first time I read this, I knew I will always remember. It has saved me a lot of money already. Simple and true! And stress-free! Thank you, Dr. Joe!
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #12,933
  • Mar 17, 2020 6:05am Mar 17, 2020 6:05am
Quoting tommyFL
{quote} Are those volumes on your charts? I hope everyone's OK. I'm still following and reading charts. I've done OK the last few months but I'm still fighting myself, I will post some trades later.
At the bottom of the screenshots, yes they are. However, it represents the volume of my broker, as Forex isn't centralised.
  • #12,934
  • Mar 17, 2020 6:07am Mar 17, 2020 6:07am
Quoting Rub
maybe it's telling you some bugger drew a random line on your chart.
You mean my broker could manipulate the data to throw people off ?
  • #12,935
  • Mar 17, 2020 10:59am Mar 17, 2020 10:59am
Quoting Udkox
{quote} You mean my broker could manipulate the data to throw people off ?
The red/orange line? Is that not the ask-price?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #12,936
  • Mar 17, 2020 11:21am Mar 17, 2020 11:21am
Quoting Hickson
The red/orange line? Is that not the ask-price?
Damn! I misread the comment! I though he was referring to the wick line, not the trendline hahaha! Sorry!
  • #12,937
  • Mar 18, 2020 6:29am Mar 18, 2020 6:29am
Sorry I've not been back for while, busy trading.

GU 5 min

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Just crawl out of my cave, chase it down and club it to death..!
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #12,938
  • Mar 18, 2020 8:52am Mar 18, 2020 8:52am
Quoting BeyondTheSea
Sorry I've not been back for while, busy trading. GU 5 min {image} Just crawl out of my cave, chase it down and club it to death..!
Thanks for that BTS.

A few questions if you don't mind:

I think the second entry is perfect, right after the candle that confirms a swing high. However, the first one seems a bit rushed. I see that the price was rejected by the 20 EMA, (1) was that a major reason why you jumped in there ?

There are some scary rallies that got you in red for a few minutes. (2) What was the main reason why you didn't abandon ship ? Is it the fact that the price could not close above the swing high low ?

It's been said many times that dojis aren't trend reversal candles, therefore, I a struggle to see why you added on in the 3rd one. (3) Maybe you considerd it a profit taking area ?

Many thanks in advance!
Attached Image
  • #12,939
  • Edited 9:54am Mar 18, 2020 9:28am | Edited 9:54am
Quoting Udkox
{quote} Thanks for that BTS. A few questions if you don't mind: I think the second entry is perfect, right after the candle that confirms a swing high. However, the first one seems a bit rushed. I see that the price was rejected by the 20 EMA, (1) was that a major reason why you jumped in there ? There are some scary rallies that got you in red for a few minutes. (2) What was the main reason why you didn't abandon ship ? Is it the fact that the price could not close above the swing high low ? It's been said many times that dojis aren't trend reversal...
Hi Udkox

I was watching the 15 min as well as the 5 min and based my entry when I could see that my risk was manageable, I watch carefully how the price reacts through the London open, there is often a "trap" which may well be a figment of my imagination though! Once I see the confluence of this price along with a reversal through the 1.2050, and the open level, the shadow just shows the way.

"I think the second entry is perfect, right after the candle that confirms a swing high. However, the first one seems a bit rushed. I see that the price was rejected by the 20 EMA, (1) was that a major reason why you jumped in there ? There are some scary rallies that got you in red for a few minutes."
My second entry was because the markets are soooo fast I wanted the momentum and to limit my risk as with the 1st entry.


The subsequent flatness didn't worry me because I use correct position sizes for my account and I had already accepted my loss. I was trading my plan.

"(2) What was the main reason why you didn't abandon ship ? Is it the fact that the price could not close above the swing high low ? It's been said many times that dojis aren't trend reversal candles, therefore, I a struggle to see why you added on in the 3rd one. (3) Maybe you considerd it a profit taking area ?"

I didn't abandon ship, I traded my plan which includes areas of take profit. I calculate where price may reach based on daily ranges and levels specifically for GBPUSD. I try to get 2 or 3 orders in and manage them, normal days are 50 to 100pips however this week has been crazy and more than triple.. when price arrived in this area I was VERY happy with my trade already.

I used to swing for the park and this caused me all sorts of problems with my little people, just plain scared and greedy. I left over 400 pips on the table last week and I have left a similar number today but I am simply not bothered. I have made quadrouple my monthly target in just a few days already in this unbelievable market.

Without sounding too pretentious (which I know is hard for me!) when you get to grips with greed you realise that the fear of leaving money on the table has a direct correlation with losing money in the first place. They go hand in hand and are the killer.

Make the trade, keep the money AND DON'T GIVE IT BACK!
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #12,940
  • Mar 18, 2020 10:37am Mar 18, 2020 10:37am
Just thought to add, having a quick browse through Forex Factory, it is times like these that it is vital to know and believe in "Trends" and "Ranges/Consolidations".

Do the hard yards and work on your manual trading skills because all your pivots, RSI's, TDI's and other junk mean nothing. I read on one red flag guru posts that he states that trends don't exist on one thread, where is he now?!!! Another saying don't trade at all because he's just about losing his mind!!

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(Chart with some 15 and 5 min entries, er, is this not a trend?).

There isn't a "mechanical" trading system here or a A+B=C or this candle does that so do this...

Put in the study and trading hours/days/weeks/months and believe in yourself and PASR. Create your OWN way of trading, your OWN plan and stop following like a sheep.

Did I mention, put in the hours?
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
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