The Swamp | Page 2774 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #55,461
  • Mar 14, 2020 9:25am Mar 14, 2020 9:25am
Quoting Pip-loser
Still Short, Did Not Set Stop Loss To Protect Profit. The Back Side Of The Long Term Upward Sloping Trend Line And WMA Were Both Tested With Resistance This Signifies Bear Continuation (MayBe) I Am Novice Trader See Current Blue Candle Tested The Back Side Of The Long Term Upward Sloping Trend Line And Orange WMA Were Both Tested With Resistance. Both Purple Resistance Lines, Orange WMA Line And White Upward Sloping Long Term Trend Line Were All Tested With Rejection. Should Those Layers Of Resistance Hold, The Bear Move Down Should Continue. Despite...
My Analysis For Next Week Will Be Based Only On What The Charts Say.

Despite Everything Happening In The World, I Have Been Training To Only Listen To The Chart.
So Far, The Charts Have Been Correct Despite Everything Going On.

I Will Only Follow The Chart And Not My Heart Or What Is Happening In The World.


Quoting Pip-loser
Stop Out At Break Even Total Pips Made 67 Pips No More Trading For The Week. Start Back Again Sunday Take Care Everyone

Lesson Learnt Last Week: Trust The Chart Completely And Do Not Set Stop Loss To Break Even So Early In A Position Trade Set Up
Cancelled Membership, Accused By FF Member(i'll Be Back) of Being A Con Man
  • #55,462
  • Mar 14, 2020 10:14am Mar 14, 2020 10:14am
Quoting DMA Trader
the amount of bankruptcy's here is sky rocketing. just talked to my team here. and some other partners. firing right now is like bitcoin or gold drop. and this is because no reaction for the gov.

try to make hard decisions while you can. i am not sure how many are affected by corona on this thread as country's but the amount of panic that you see on business is unbelievable. cities are shutdown everybody stays in their home nobody is getting out just buying some staff for them.
also low level medical on some country's will just make the spread bigger. you can see Iran for example.

but think about, business not working, no jobs, everything is shut down. can you survive 1 year ? i would say money has to be cash. even if everybody says liquidity exists and all.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #55,463
  • Mar 14, 2020 10:42am Mar 14, 2020 10:42am
My plan next week..
I am all cash atm.. looking at data, H1 downtrend has 89 running hours, there will be a good chance for H1 to reverse to uptrend soon. I will use the opportunity to collect some shorts. In case another run down, if you have lower shorts, better to close out and wait for its bounce to short higher.
Keep in mind, FOMC coming this Wednesday, we will see choppy price trading before the final trend sets in...
Good luck with trading next week!
Attached Image
  • #55,464
  • Mar 14, 2020 11:06am Mar 14, 2020 11:06am
Quoting Boulder
My plan next week.. I am all cash atm.. looking at data, H1 downtrend has 89 running hours, there will be a good chance for H1 to reverse to uptrend soon. I will use the opportunity to collect some shorts. In case another run down, if you have lower shorts, better to close out and wait for its bounce to short higher. Keep in mind, FOMC coming this Wednesday, we will see choppy price trading before the final trend sets in... Good luck with trading next week! {image}
I will Be Posting My Plan With Charts In A Bit.

Based On Fibs, Price Pulled Back To the .618 Level On The Daily Chart And Is Again Test The Downward Sloping Support Trend Line. Tweezer Bottoms Candle Stick Formation Also Formed, Signalling A Possible Bullish Attempt. Will Show On Charts Soon. My Analysis Will Be In Detail Looking At Bull And Bear

Cancelled Membership, Accused By FF Member(i'll Be Back) of Being A Con Man
  • #55,465
  • Mar 14, 2020 11:12am Mar 14, 2020 11:12am
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/arti...rnd=markets-vp


Ray Dalio’s macro fund dropped about 20% this year as the billionaire fund manager found himself on the wrong side of a market rout caused by the escalating coronavirus pandemic.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #55,466
  • Mar 14, 2020 11:16am Mar 14, 2020 11:16am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} try to make hard decisions while you can. i am not sure how many are affected by corona on this thread as country's but the amount of panic that you see on business is unbelievable. cities are shutdown everybody stays in their home nobody is getting out just buying some staff for them. also low level medical on some country's will just make the spread bigger. you can see Iran for example. but think about, business not working, no jobs, everything is shut down. can you survive 1 year ? i would say money has to be cash. even if everybody says...
Except that everyday new recoveries take place and if the recovered ppl don't catch it again, they can easily go to work and keep the economy going. That's your silver lining. China knows it too.
  • #55,467
  • Edited 11:52am Mar 14, 2020 11:25am | Edited 11:52am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Except that everyday new recoveries take place and if the recovered ppl don't catch it again, they can easily go to work and keep the economy going. That's your silver lining. China knows it too.

depending on the power of the country and the measure taken. here all i am hearing is firing everybody and closing everything.

Place nr 35 but will go probably in the first 20 country's because of movement of people working in europe.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #55,468
  • Mar 14, 2020 12:10pm Mar 14, 2020 12:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah they are just saying f-it. Kill off the old and weak population. If this thing ever mutates to a stronger version. We are all in trouble. But that's what nature does. The virus is no different. The virus that survives the treatments we throw at it. Becomes stronger and immune to those treatments. But unlike humans, a virus can do mutate much quicker. This particular version attacks the old and children seem to fair well. What happens when it evolves to kill children or middle age people? They should throw the kitchen sink at this shit....
Yes, but this is treason. It's his job to be the last to give up. And we've seen in Italy that younger and younger people got seriously infected, like teenagers needing intensive care. And when there are no more available respirators for the incoming children then the stats will get darker in a hurry. How are they going to know what works and what doesn't if they don't test for it, if they don't count the cases and the outcomes? I see Switzerland way up on the list with such a relatively small population and probably one of the highest standard of living and health care. Or maybe they are the ones closest to truthfully report the numbers.

A lot of people forget that SARS and MERS were also coronaviruses. This shit ain't just going away with the summer.
  • #55,469
  • Mar 14, 2020 12:22pm Mar 14, 2020 12:22pm
Quoting DMA Trader
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/arti...rnd=markets-vp Ray Dalio’s macro fund dropped about 20% this year as the billionaire fund manager found himself on the wrong side of a market rout caused by the escalating coronavirus pandemic.
I keep wondering about the rock stars of the finance world: how much of their past performance was truly value added and how much was purely luck.
  • #55,470
  • Mar 14, 2020 12:46pm Mar 14, 2020 12:46pm
How to break-down GBP usd movement:

Inserted Video
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #55,471
  • Mar 14, 2020 12:51pm Mar 14, 2020 12:51pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: coronavirus.jpg Size: 736 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pandemics.jpg Size: 700 KB
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #55,472
  • Edited 1:38pm Mar 14, 2020 1:26pm | Edited 1:38pm
Quoting broketrader
I think that this is more serious than we all think, and the governments know it already ! In a worst case scenario, the Britons think that 80% of their population will get the virus, Germans say 70% And the doctor in the video below explains that around 50% of world population will certainly get it and that mortality rate should go to around 1% 1% of 50%, I let you made the calculation... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYTFk34nhoI
The normal flu is mortality 0.1% so with 1% its 10 times more deadly.
3 problems with it:
1) More people get infected exponentially because there is no vaccine.
2) They get infected all at the same time so hospitals cannot handle it. It is given that 13% to 20% of the sick will be hospitalized.
3) The required lock downs to slow the disease down will have severe impact on the economy and will destroy many businesses.

What politicians do it place a price on each persons head. Here it is 60.000 euro per person.
And on the background they do calculations how many people they will let die.
They balance the businesses with loss of life.
Depending on that they make their policy, what to communicate to the public.
Problem is, they are not as clever as they think. Corona does not obey their rules.
Hospitals will be flooded because of that, just like in Italy.
  • #55,473
  • Edited 2:10pm Mar 14, 2020 1:30pm | Edited 2:10pm
Quoting Boulder
My plan next week.. I am all cash atm.. looking at data, H1 downtrend has 89 running hours, there will be a good chance for H1 to reverse to uptrend soon. I will use the opportunity to collect some shorts. In case another run down, if you have lower shorts, better to close out and wait for its bounce to short higher. Keep in mind, FOMC coming this Wednesday, we will see choppy price trading before the final trend sets in... Good luck with trading next week! {image}
My Trading Plan For Sunday, March 15 - Friday, March 20, 2020

Here On The Monthly Chart
Based On The Fibs, Price Pulled Back To The 0.786 level, Second Blue Candle From The Right (Possibly C)
That Same Blue Candle With The Very Long Wick, Also Took Out The Previous Monthly Low
The Current Monthly White Candle Shot Up And Has Retraced To The Pink Long Term Downward Sloping Trend Line.
The Current Monthly White Candle Is Still Active, So Will Monitor Candle To See Where And How It Closes At Month End.
We Have To Keep An Eye On The Long Term Pink, Downward Sloping Trend Line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot6.png Size: 265 KB


Here On The Weekly Chart
The Current Blue Candle Closed At The Pink Downward Sloping Long Term Trend Line
The Orange WMA At 1:13467 Still Acting As Resistance.
Price Had Over Shoot The WMA, But Resistance Held.
Hence The Current Blue Candle Closing At 1:11054 Testing The Pink Long Term Downward Sloping Trend Line

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot9.png Size: 176 KB


Here On The Daily Chart
Trend Lines Are Adjusted To Scale To Reflect Accuracy On The Smaller Time Frames
The Current Blue Candle Closed At The Pink Downward Sloping Long Term Trend Line
The Daily Fibs Retraced Just A Few Pips Above The 0.618 Level.
The Candle Wick Did Not Touch The 0.618 Level At 1:10523
Price Went As Low As 1:10550 Which Is 2.7 Pips Above 1:10523 (0.618 Fib Retrace)
Price Bounce Off Daily Orange WMA Line At 1:10585
Price Also Bounced Just Above The White TWO Standard Deviation Bollinger Band Line 1:10372

At Current Close We Can Anticipate A Bounce From Her Upward.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot7.png Size: 236 KB


Here On The H1 Chart
Trend Lines Are Adjusted To Scale To Reflect Accuracy On The Smaller Time Frames
The Current White Candle Closed Above The Pink Long Term Downward Sloping Trend Line
Currently Price In Between TWO Upward Sloping White Trend Lines And Above Pink Downward Sloping Long Term Trend Line Acting ---As Support Now At Market Close Friday.

H1 Orange WMA Line Is At 1:12354

We Can Expect Consolidation As Price Tries A Bullish Attempt Upward
There Are Layers Of Resistance Above,Will They Hold?
Note White Downward Sloping Trend Lines Above Current Candle
Dotted Green Line Below Represents 0.618 Daily Fib Retrace Just Above 1:10500

One Could Enter Long With Caution Of The Resistance Above And Be Prepared To Reverse And Short If Resistance Holds.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 321 KB



ZOOM IN ON CHART ABOVE

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 252 KB


I Am Novice Trader
Cancelled Membership, Accused By FF Member(i'll Be Back) of Being A Con Man
  • #55,474
  • Mar 14, 2020 2:14pm Mar 14, 2020 2:14pm
Very nice, great explanation and charts. Thanks for taking the time to share!



just wanted to add some news. UK cannot now fly to the US from Monday.

A friend who is currently touring Vietnam said he is being turned away from restaurants and hotels due to being a foreigner who could be carrying the virus!

One of my employees who is based in Sri-Lanka (great developers) notified me to safari parks and tourist attractions being closed from Monday.

Back in the UK, although not yet government instructed, every local school is now shut, many started to close last week on fear of spread. 1 school had a pupil with it. Next week, most in my local area to my knowledge are closed.

A friend who is responsible for signing off aircrafts which have undergone repairs, was flown back from his temp position in Barbados due to cost cutting. He has been told that there will he cuts made to staff before the end of the month. (Virgin Atlantic) I guess that’s Delta too.

My local Indian curry house on the other hand has never been busier for home deliveries...
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #55,475
  • Mar 14, 2020 2:33pm Mar 14, 2020 2:33pm
well i think this is the only country to do this
can t believe it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 63C910F6-1FA8-4227-9C7E-E1A7F9C9F6A8.png Size: 2.3 MB
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #55,476
  • Mar 14, 2020 2:41pm Mar 14, 2020 2:41pm
Yep, it’s all over the news and I just received a BBC news alert reporting the largest rise in cases seen today.
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #55,477
  • Mar 14, 2020 3:14pm Mar 14, 2020 3:14pm
Spain, Romania declares state of emergency
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #55,478
  • Mar 14, 2020 3:25pm Mar 14, 2020 3:25pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Spain, Romania declares state of emergency
same here.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #55,479
  • Mar 14, 2020 3:57pm Mar 14, 2020 3:57pm
Dow -900 so far
  • #55,480
  • Mar 14, 2020 4:21pm Mar 14, 2020 4:21pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{image} {image}
Those are really nice graphics but the caveat is that Cronavirus is not finished yet. It's just at an evolving stage.

Did the people during each previous outbreak know how big theirs was going to last?

Only years from now we will be able to look back and do a proper comparison.
39 traders viewing now