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  • #6,661
  • Edited 6:26pm Mar 10, 2020 6:13pm | Edited 6:26pm
Quoting ytong
perfect timing... US is the largest oil producer. OPEC+ cutting production = for US producers (high price, US don't cut production) Then the virus (just coincidence), as economy downturn trigger. Some trigger not related to OPEC+ was necessary as an excuse. Then no OPEC+ agreement (another excuse). And oil price war. Let's see who will survive...
I think the question is for how long... In the longrun I think it is clear who would
Some old article/chart, but you get the idea... http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/
Some newer: https://kosatka.media/en/category/ne...i-nefti-v-mire
And yes, wiki... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_..._of_production
And we know about the reserves.... Also we know what countries go crazy at "growth stalling" and which ones say "we can do with even less, no problem"
The question I would ask right now is... how long will this potential BLUFF takes place... I believe we might see it rather soon..
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6,662
  • Mar 10, 2020 8:30pm Mar 10, 2020 8:30pm
WTF CAUSED THAT 1M SPIKE LOL?

Biden? Some whale? I seriously have no idea
rennstimp
  • #6,663
  • Mar 11, 2020 2:48am Mar 11, 2020 2:48am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} ...how long will this potential BLUFF takes place... I believe we might see it rather soon..
well, maybe it,s time to say Saudi Arabia WAS the best US ally on Middle East, apart from Israel.
and Mr Trump has a proper tool to apply: 1000% emergency tax on all oil import...
all domestic supply and demand would be domestic...
...end of price war...
  • #6,664
  • Mar 11, 2020 3:02am Mar 11, 2020 3:02am
good to be a shareholder in Aramco
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #6,665
  • Mar 11, 2020 3:26am Mar 11, 2020 3:26am
Quoting DMA Trader
I am selling 33/34 area targeting lower prices.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-price-crash

Top planning officials are consulting with Chinese government agencies and state-owned energy companies about the possibility of bolstering the nation’s strategic stockpiles with cheap oil, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is confidential. Beijing is yet to decide whether to proceed, they said.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #6,666
  • Mar 11, 2020 4:28am Mar 11, 2020 4:28am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You should be short Oil. Lots of Macro short value. Sell on upticks
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #6,667
  • Mar 11, 2020 4:29am Mar 11, 2020 4:29am
Quoting DMA Trader
I am selling 33/34 area targeting lower prices.
time frames align for a possible drop.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #6,668
  • Mar 11, 2020 4:35am Mar 11, 2020 4:35am
Quoting sponge
{quote} I see S&P bullish over 2808 Dow 25157 to confirm, WTI 35.84 near target, 36.83 hurdle / target 40+ Chart observation only...very sensitive to news
Near target hit but quickly rejected.

A lot going on with oil, news is driving

Support 33.50/30 bearish below
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #6,669
  • Mar 11, 2020 4:41am Mar 11, 2020 4:41am
32s should be defended and 35s Sold according to the Options market

Attached Image
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #6,670
  • Mar 11, 2020 6:59am Mar 11, 2020 6:59am
wti may visit 49 before it goes down . i know , i know ,its a bold call . but, well its a possibility.
  • #6,671
  • Mar 11, 2020 2:10pm Mar 11, 2020 2:10pm
I am out of this market atm... awaiting the next BUY opportunity when it appears... Will wait for this poker to come down a bit, a hand or two at least I expect that to happen in the beginning of next week since there is some delay, have to admit it....
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6,672
  • Mar 11, 2020 4:17pm Mar 11, 2020 4:17pm
I’m in long. Risky trade based on conditions would at least like it to re visit top of the range
  • #6,673
  • Mar 11, 2020 4:35pm Mar 11, 2020 4:35pm
32.40 support
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #6,674
  • Mar 11, 2020 6:13pm Mar 11, 2020 6:13pm
Quoting copi88
32s should be defended and 35s Sold according to the Options market {image}
You must really want to be sued.

This is in direct violation of your NDA.
  • #6,675
  • Mar 11, 2020 10:28pm Mar 11, 2020 10:28pm
I really hope it doesnt, but it looks to be on its way to $20.
  • #6,676
  • Mar 12, 2020 1:20am Mar 12, 2020 1:20am
Quoting copi88
32s should be defended and 35s Sold according to the Options market {image}
See how the market blew through the 32 level despite all the option hedging in place. This is because there was no value for the institutions to buy at that price and the option sellers then need to start selling oil to hedge their positions.

They only buy it sell when there is significant divergence from value ie they have generated Alpha.

I said yesterday to be short as macro value was to the downside.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #6,677
  • Mar 12, 2020 2:55am Mar 12, 2020 2:55am
There where a ton of buyers trapped in that balance area by the red arrow yesterday. If price revisits into that blue box those buyers will be desperate to get off their trades. Good area to look for shorts.

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Boxing clever since 76.
  • #6,678
  • Mar 12, 2020 3:06am Mar 12, 2020 3:06am
Crazy days.

WTI support 31.30, may visit last weeks low.
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #6,679
  • Mar 12, 2020 3:58am Mar 12, 2020 3:58am
Quoting sponge
Crazy days. WTI support 31.30, may visit last weeks low.
I’m definitely not looking for shorts here, although it is bearish and bearish setups should be favorable, but there seems to be an accumulation of long orders near the $30 mark, volume seems to suggest we may be heading back towards the low $40-$45 range.....looking at the daily that would be in line with mean reversion and then only will I consider adding shorts...for now will buy low and trail and cash out as and when it finds profits
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #6,680
  • Mar 12, 2020 4:19am Mar 12, 2020 4:19am
Out the box ?

Symmetry suggests WTI 21.70 possible 10!

Holding 32.50 to avoid
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
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