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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #6,641
  • Mar 10, 2020 3:43am Mar 10, 2020 3:43am
Poss short on eurusd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 27 KB
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #6,642
  • Mar 10, 2020 3:53am Mar 10, 2020 3:53am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Looks like a pinbar on the Daily, whats is the yellow line at 33.5 price?
Thats the current future price. 34 is now shaded
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #6,643
  • Mar 10, 2020 3:57am Mar 10, 2020 3:57am
Quoting copi88
{quote} Thats the current future price. 34 is now shaded
Thanks for the info.

Shouldn't people buy long calls in case of a price break to the upside?

Edit: I mean hedge their shorts.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #6,644
  • Mar 10, 2020 4:13am Mar 10, 2020 4:13am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Thanks for the info. Shouldn't people buy long calls in case of a price break to the upside? Edit: I mean hedge their shorts.
Institutions will buy deep OTM Calls above the market (as they are very cheap) which they will use to hedge short positions when price reaches that strike price. They will only trade those strike prices if they have short value however. If the level is not defended the Call sellers then have to buy Oil futures to hedge their positions and price can blow very quickly through those levels
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #6,645
  • Mar 10, 2020 4:18am Mar 10, 2020 4:18am
The anatomy of a perfect short trade.

  1. In an area of previous commercial selling activity (green box)
  2. High volume up candle that gets reversed indicates commercial seller.
  3. Retest of the high on lower volume with a spike in volume as it tests through the high and get stopped again.
  4. Value to the downside.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Boxing clever since 76.
  • #6,646
  • Mar 10, 2020 4:22am Mar 10, 2020 4:22am
Quoting copi88
{quote} Institutions will buy deep OTM Calls above the market (as they are very cheap) which they will use to hedge short positions when price reaches that strike price. They will only trade those strike prices if they have short value however. If the level is not defended the Call sellers then have to buy Oil futures to hedge their positions and price can blow very quickly through those levels
Thanks for the input.

I can see some calls up to 40,0, but puts are more.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #6,647
  • Mar 10, 2020 5:02am Mar 10, 2020 5:02am
I found many people think that crude oil will be about 10 usd. But, how is that possible?
  • #6,648
  • Mar 10, 2020 5:59am Mar 10, 2020 5:59am
Quoting catmes
I found many people think that crude oil will be about 10 usd. But, how is that possible?
At current demand it cannot even $28 was far to low. The Saudis where offering discounts between $4 and $8 per barrel when price was at $42 and they cannot supply the whole market. There would need to be a very substantial decrease in demand as well as in increase in supply to get to $10.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #6,649
  • Mar 10, 2020 9:57am Mar 10, 2020 9:57am
would love to see wti break north pass the $34 area this afternoon.
  • #6,650
  • Edited 10:47am Mar 10, 2020 10:37am | Edited 10:47am
I think 35.84 could be a target if the chosen ones are in

Very sensitive to news atm but 32.08 is the prop for now imo
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #6,651
  • Mar 10, 2020 10:52am Mar 10, 2020 10:52am
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/...it-hard-a69569
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #6,652
  • Mar 10, 2020 11:25am Mar 10, 2020 11:25am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Agreed, not touching the market for the risk of being trapped... Plan to jump on the BUY side as soon as the situation will appear to stabilise a little and that the UP-trend begins... But this RU's statement where they basically say "come at me bro (25USD)" does not give me the confidence to jump on the BUY side just yet.
Well finally some movement... In fact I jumped on it yesterday, later of the day, "much" after the above quote... The "normal" and the CHEETAH version of it WAs quite good... Now awaiting to see where the market "wants to go" by the end of the week and will then start entering it next week, should parameters be satisfied according to my views
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6,653
  • Edited 11:43am Mar 10, 2020 11:31am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting sponge
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/...it-hard-a69569
Yes, but you know, we never know how they will react... Maybe the west would be much more predictable, at least have been so far, at fraction of that news.. we would already "know" what follows, the standard: rates, stimulus etc... But with RU, you never know.. they even said basically "come at me bro" just yesterday So the market now waits if they will do what they claim or fold. Or let me put it other way around, market not sure if it would even call the bluff My views anyway!

I myself will wait for the NEXT BUY opportunity, but definitely can not afford to be BEAR trapped, remember, it is Russia, they are not afraid of the BEARS, bears are afraid of them They live with them... A little joke/pun (love them all, was just stressing that we should not assume anything, so just saying ). So awaiting to either JOIN/JUMP (on) the BULL ride or I am OUT of this market at this prices... Just can not afford to take that chance of SELL right now, at this prices, this time of the year, at current eco-health conditions etc... 2 modes only for me, for the whole MAR at least, BUY or "not trading"... So let's see what happens by the end of the week and maybe 1-2 trading days of next so that I can form at least some picture of all this... TBC
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6,654
  • Mar 10, 2020 11:52am Mar 10, 2020 11:52am
Quoting Kwame Freder
would love to see wti break north pass the $34 area this afternoon.
well , you said it
  • #6,655
  • Mar 10, 2020 11:58am Mar 10, 2020 11:58am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil.png Size: 26 KB
yes yes yes
  • #6,656
  • Mar 10, 2020 12:11pm Mar 10, 2020 12:11pm
Quoting Moty
{image}
Oil will stay low 30s for months
  • #6,657
  • Mar 10, 2020 12:20pm Mar 10, 2020 12:20pm
37.25 is their target.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #6,658
  • Mar 10, 2020 1:04pm Mar 10, 2020 1:04pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yes, but you know, we never know how they will react... Maybe the west would be much more predictable, at least have been so far, at fraction of that news.. we would already "know" what follows, the standard: rates, stimulus etc... But with RU, you never know.. they even said basically "come at me bro" just yesterday So the market now waits if they will do what they claim or fold. Or let me put it other way around, market not sure if it would even call the bluff My views anyway! I myself will wait for the NEXT BUY opportunity,...
I see S&P bullish over 2808 Dow 25157 to confirm, WTI 35.84 near target, 36.83 hurdle / target 40+

Chart observation only...very sensitive to news
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #6,659
  • Mar 10, 2020 1:15pm Mar 10, 2020 1:15pm
Saudi Arabia Prepares $12-$20 Oil Price Scenario

http://www.energyintel.com/pages/eig...065980&NLID=31
  • #6,660
  • Mar 10, 2020 2:24pm Mar 10, 2020 2:24pm
perfect timing...
US is the largest oil producer.
OPEC+ cutting production = for US producers (high price, US don't cut production)
Then the virus (just coincidence), as economy downturn trigger. Some trigger not related to OPEC+ was necessary as an excuse.
Then no OPEC+ agreement (another excuse).
And oil price war.
Let's see who will survive...
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