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  • #17,281
  • Mar 8, 2020 10:44pm Mar 8, 2020 10:44pm
all we need now is somewhere in the US to announce govt-imposed quarantine....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,282
  • Mar 9, 2020 2:03am Mar 9, 2020 2:03am
TBT heading gosh to $10, might be a good buy n hold
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,283
  • Mar 9, 2020 3:02am Mar 9, 2020 3:02am
A level 2 circuit breaker kicks in at -13%, which would be spoos 2,585....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,284
  • Mar 9, 2020 8:27am Mar 9, 2020 8:27am
open should bring biggest gaps ever seen in (_______)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,285
  • Mar 9, 2020 8:42am Mar 9, 2020 8:42am
Quoting The Fool
A level 2 circuit breaker kicks in at -13%, which would be spoos 2,585....
7% hit fast, let's see if the 13% breaker gets hit...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,286
  • Mar 9, 2020 9:41am Mar 9, 2020 9:41am
Quoting The Fool
fishing $276/280/284 Mar11 SPY puts for 16c...filled at 15c the nice thing about these flys with iv's elevated they are pretty cheap but also they can be profitable across a wide range - here b/e or better is between $293 and $263 +/-, with a perfect finish worth 4bag.
.....took some off to b/e at 35c, will hold the rest for 45c or better
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,287
  • Mar 9, 2020 12:52pm Mar 9, 2020 12:52pm
bot PBR Jun/Jul $12 calls for 3 centavos
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,288
  • Mar 9, 2020 1:34pm Mar 9, 2020 1:34pm
I think BTFD died today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,289
  • Mar 9, 2020 1:35pm Mar 9, 2020 1:35pm
Quoting The Fool
I think BTFD died today....
....maybe TINA, too.....I'm not sure....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,290
  • Mar 9, 2020 1:54pm Mar 9, 2020 1:54pm
Quoting The Fool
I think BTFD died today....
I'm trying to do CPR on it....

In the following:

DIA Mar20 250 CALL @ $4.95

Put this bid in earlier and didn't expect it to get hit, but it just did. I wanted to wait until closer to the close, but this may have to do....too expensive to get in more near the money......
  • #17,291
  • Mar 9, 2020 1:57pm Mar 9, 2020 1:57pm
I would expect a small bounce at the open or even a move up right at the close. Should be good for a little money, but a lot of money if people realize this panic may be unnecessary for just another strain of the flu...
  • #17,292
  • Mar 9, 2020 2:10pm Mar 9, 2020 2:10pm
I am closing call spreads in SPY and SPX that are miles put of the money (SPX 3200/3205 diag Mar13/Mar16, for instance) and making small profit on them, simply because the iv's have jacked so high. Done the same with TLT put spreads.....

I bot a Mar13 SPY put fly for 11c - $257/260/263. I have gotten into the habit of just paying pennies for options, for good or ill, so flys is what I can afford now...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,293
  • Mar 9, 2020 2:17pm Mar 9, 2020 2:17pm
Quoting moneymaker2
I would expect a small bounce at the open or even a move up right at the close. Should be good for a little money, but a lot of money if people realize this panic may be unnecessary for just another strain of the flu...
....I think the worst of the fear overnight was what appears to be a new Saudi oil price war. If crude is going to trade @ $30/bbl and lower, there is going to be extreme credit risk, as many of the overleveraged small hands will go tits up and default.

We will get past the virus fear, although the worst of that may still be yet to come. But, an oil price war is a different problem altogether.

It's kinda been a double whammy. Full moon, too....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,294
  • Mar 9, 2020 2:21pm Mar 9, 2020 2:21pm
...On the plus side, the oil rout we see is a buying op for related stocks. I am watching PBR and will be a buyer if it drops to $6.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,295
  • Mar 9, 2020 2:24pm Mar 9, 2020 2:24pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} I'm trying to do CPR on it.... In the following: DIA Mar20 250 CALL @ $4.95 Put this bid in earlier and didn't expect it to get hit, but it just did. I wanted to wait until closer to the close, but this may have to do....too expensive to get in more near the money......
Out of the following:

DIA Mar20 250 CALL @ $6.45 up from $4.95

Thought it would make it to $6.95, but it didn't quite get there so had to chase it down. I didn't have the stones to hold it overnight, but I'll take a $1.50 profit and be happy.....

Might look again right at the close or right after for another CALL opportunity....
  • #17,296
  • Mar 9, 2020 2:51pm Mar 9, 2020 2:51pm
...looks like we gonna slide into the close.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,297
  • Mar 9, 2020 2:52pm Mar 9, 2020 2:52pm
Quoting The Fool
...On the plus side, the oil rout we see is a buying op for related stocks. I am watching PBR and will be a buyer if it drops to $6.
Funny you should say that, I have a bid in for BP right now for April Calls....
  • #17,298
  • Mar 9, 2020 3:04pm Mar 9, 2020 3:04pm
In the following:

BP Apr17 32 CALL @ $0.33

I went ahead a got a buttload at the Ask price. And then something weird happened....Bid was $0.28 and Ask was $0.33....filled the order and about 30 seconds later suddenly the Bid went to $0.08 and Ask to $0.55....and it was still 3 minutes left of trading.....it was almost like the market makers for BP just closed up shop and opened the spread to overnight levels....maybe a few hundred contracts was too much for them all at once?
  • #17,299
  • Mar 9, 2020 3:23pm Mar 9, 2020 3:23pm
BP $32 definitely again in our lifetimes. I will watch crude futures another day or so.

Probably the Saudis will blink but it might take more than a month....

I'd expect we will hear grand pronouncements soon re: fiscal stimulus. That will maybe put in a bottom for equities. I have a big net ready for the helicopter money.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,300
  • Mar 9, 2020 3:42pm Mar 9, 2020 3:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....maybe TINA, too.....I'm not sure....
Foo please, with 0% rates, it'll be TINA II on steroids.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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