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Learning From Unsuccessful Mouteki Trades - The Search for Filters...

  • #241
  • Oct 26, 2006 9:41pm Oct 26, 2006 9:41pm
Quoting llambert3
Horace and Yasir,

Look at 1.jpg. The #2 candle was the breakout candle (it is green so the open was below the line), but the prior candle (#1) broke the line as well. Sometimes this setup still worked, but VERY rarely. It may have worked around news time when the news favored the direction. Never paid that close of attention though.
oh right.. thanx for that lambert.. now i understand..
BECAUSE I CAN !
  • #242
  • Oct 27, 2006 12:31am Oct 27, 2006 12:31am
Quoting llambert3
Horace and Yasir,

Look at 1.jpg. The #2 candle was the breakout candle (it is green so the open was below the line), but the prior candle (#1) broke the line as well. Sometimes this setup still worked, but VERY rarely. It may have worked around news time when the news favored the direction. Never paid that close of attention though.
Thanks for the assistance

You can't predict it 100%, but almost every time this pattern happens mouteki fails. SO, yeah, I rather miss one good trade and avoid 6 bad ones than take one good plus 6 bad ones.

You still have to use a little discrection though. I would take the trade if the bar before the breakout bar only touched the trendline. So If it only touches and not penetrates the line, I would take it. If it penetrated I wouldn't.
  • #243
  • Oct 27, 2006 12:00pm Oct 27, 2006 12:00pm
Quoting TheWicker
Thanks for the assistance

You can't predict it 100%, but almost every time this pattern happens mouteki fails. SO, yeah, I rather miss one good trade and avoid 6 bad ones than take one good plus 6 bad ones.

You still have to use a little discrection though. I would take the trade if the bar before the breakout bar only touched the trendline. So If it only touches and not penetrates the line, I would take it. If it penetrated I wouldn't.
Just let you know that this qualifier has been discussed in http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=8660

"Qualifier 4: The open of the bar that breaks the TL is higher than both previous bars’ closes. The TL is also above (and not touching) the previous bars’ high."
  • #244
  • Oct 27, 2006 2:46pm Oct 27, 2006 2:46pm
Quoting nchosen
Just let you know that this qualifier has been discussed in http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=8660

"Qualifier 4: The open of the bar that breaks the TL is higher than both previous bars’ closes. The TL is also above (and not touching) the previous bars’ high."

Yes, that is where I found it.. Thanks Nchosen....
  • #245
  • Oct 27, 2006 2:46pm Oct 27, 2006 2:46pm
Quoting TheWicker
Thanks for the assistance

You can't predict it 100%, but almost every time this pattern happens mouteki fails. SO, yeah, I rather miss one good trade and avoid 6 bad ones than take one good plus 6 bad ones.

You still have to use a little discrection though. I would take the trade if the bar before the breakout bar only touched the trendline. So If it only touches and not penetrates the line, I would take it. If it penetrated I wouldn't.
Exactly. It had to pierce it, not just touch it. I've seen a lot touch and be successfull.
  • #246
  • Oct 27, 2006 4:00pm Oct 27, 2006 4:00pm
Does anyone have a reason this trade failed...
Attached Image
  • #247
  • Oct 27, 2006 4:01pm Oct 27, 2006 4:01pm
Maybe it's just one of those trades that setup perfectly and fail anyway?

Have a great weekend all.

HK
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  • #248
  • Oct 27, 2006 4:33pm Oct 27, 2006 4:33pm
[quote=Horace Kent]Maybe it's just one of those trades that setup perfectly and fail anyway?

Don't email me. Just look at the chart...
Attached Image
TULKAS
  • #249
  • Oct 27, 2006 5:23pm Oct 27, 2006 5:23pm
Quoting Horace Kent
Does anyone have a reason this trade failed...
The Daily Trend was clearly UP Trend that is why. The down trend you saw was merely a result of US Hawkishness coming into FOMC wednesday - the hawkishness failed and GBPUSD went up again.
  • #250
  • Oct 27, 2006 6:12pm Oct 27, 2006 6:12pm
hi...


Tulkas....I think one of your points you picked to draw that line is not the right one...there was one a little higher..not sure if it would still have been a trade...but it wasn't on my charts..
  • #251
  • Oct 27, 2006 8:51pm Oct 27, 2006 8:51pm
[quote=Tulkas]
Quoting Horace Kent
Maybe it's just one of those trades that setup perfectly and fail anyway?

Don't email me. Just look at the chart...
Hi Tulkas,

Stochs lag. Look at this...
Attached Image
  • #252
  • Oct 27, 2006 8:56pm Oct 27, 2006 8:56pm
And this...
Attached Image
  • #253
  • Oct 27, 2006 11:06pm Oct 27, 2006 11:06pm
Hi BK,

Please show me how you determine the daily trend. Not being facetiouos at all, just that depending on how you look at the daily, it can be up or down. Depends on your frame of reference.

HK
Quoting BurgerKing
The Daily Trend was clearly UP Trend that is why. The down trend you saw was merely a result of US Hawkishness coming into FOMC wednesday - the hawkishness failed and GBPUSD went up again.
  • #254
  • Oct 28, 2006 1:42am Oct 28, 2006 1:42am
Quoting nchosen
Just let you know that this qualifier has been discussed in http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=8660

"Qualifier 4: The open of the bar that breaks the TL is higher than both previous bars’ closes. The TL is also above (and not touching) the previous bars’ high."
This one is different. Many good trades happen also if the high of the previous bar touches the TD. I say it can tuch as much as it likes too, but shouldn't penetrate it.
  • #255
  • Oct 28, 2006 8:11am Oct 28, 2006 8:11am
Quoting Horace Kent
And this...
Hey HK,

All indicators lag except price itself! I use stoch never as a reason to enter so much as a reason not to. And yes, using it out of context would keep you out of many good trades, but I do think it is a good "tool in the toolbox" to give some insight.

BTW- I only use it in overbought/oversold conditions...
TULKAS
  • #256
  • Oct 30, 2006 1:47am Oct 30, 2006 1:47am
Quoting Horace Kent
And this...
Graph you provided still shows that Stochastic is not over 80 but is close, maybe that should be some filter for bad and good stoch filter

Also did you notice the point where two lines cross, right above that point is smaller ressistance, I didnt explore it in detail but I noticed it on other examples
  • #257
  • Oct 30, 2006 1:50pm Oct 30, 2006 1:50pm
Quoting Horace Kent
And this...
yea.. indicators arenta lot of help mostly..
BECAUSE I CAN !
  • #258
  • Mar 22, 2007 1:46pm Mar 22, 2007 1:46pm
MY filter settings are simple.

they are based off price action AFTER we entered The trade.

for example after going short we see an engulfing bullish like 20 pips or so....Exit

After going short we found a tweezer bottom.....Exit at break even or 10 pips or so.

So u see, filters are easy and if u apply these candle patters them to mouteki then it will cut most losing trades.

I would also like to discourage everyone using mouteki from using laggin indicators. Basically all indicators are laggin. I dont care what investopedia says. THey are all laggin becuz they are calculated from previous data.


that includes stochastics, rsi, macd and the others.
  • #259
  • Apr 10, 2007 11:46pm Apr 10, 2007 11:46pm
Hi to all

I am new to this system and am wondering how many trades a week on average do most of you get? I have some ideas for filters but knowing the answer to this question might help me to determen if they will work.

Thanks
Could it be Man is trying to be something without knowing they're complete?
  • #260
  • Dec 25, 2007 12:58pm Dec 25, 2007 12:58pm
Quoting belief
http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/8919/jpylj1.jpg
any filter to avoid this failure?

your Trend line is incorrect...read moutedi or tom demark first book before trying to trade this.... it works well if done correctly.... (ps many traders of ff are drawing incorrect TLs...this is the most important part.)
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