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The Swamp

  • #54,081
  • Mar 8, 2020 3:22am Mar 8, 2020 3:22am
Quoting gatorinla
Bond markets are usually the smart guys. If they are right, those lost sales in equity products will make a difference.
So they were smart again.

now we see the confirmation
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,082
  • Mar 8, 2020 3:22am Mar 8, 2020 3:22am
Quoting PxtzP
{quote} 2029 pre ww3? Well see think we will see Iran war before maybe even later this year but thats me rambling
maybe sooner. maybe later. Iran is not doing so well. The older war hawks, tortured by the Shaw. Have the corona effect now. The next generation may be tired of the wars, of the last 40 years. Anyone 45 years and less have not known much peace. They all have social media. They have got a view of peace. Things may change as the older generation turns to dust. 45 years of wasted blood and treasure, in what should had been very prosperous period. Iran missed out on a lot. In the early 1970's the Saudis king was still driving a 1957 car. Things improved for the Saudis in the last 45 years.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,083
  • Edited 3:46am Mar 8, 2020 3:35am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting M3csl
Cheaper fuel would be nice as a result lol
careful for what you wish for, your neighbor will lose his job. The bank will foreclose on his home, as well as several others on your street. The kids and riff raff may vandalize the home. Your neighborhood may be less desirable. Your home equity may drop sunstatialy, when the forclosed home is sold at 1/2 price. All things are connected.

I dont know where you live. But if you want to see credit markets dry up fast. First watch the bottom drop out on oil. I promise it will have a greater effect on the U.S., than most think. It will decimate Texas and other oil producing states. If the price remains low for a sustained period. The equalition of this shock will take a decade to resolve. All recessions in the U.S. since 1973 were preceded by an oil spike. Since the U.S. had switched to a net importer after 1973. Today we are a net producer. A large drop may now hurt the U.S.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,084
  • Mar 8, 2020 3:45am Mar 8, 2020 3:45am
UK,
it’s not so much the price of fuel, it’s the extortionate duty! £1.42 per litre right now. Completely normal. £1.61 for 99 ron.

anyway..
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #54,085
  • Mar 8, 2020 3:45am Mar 8, 2020 3:45am
Duty going up again this month also.
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #54,086
  • Edited 4:01am Mar 8, 2020 3:50am | Edited 4:01am
Quoting M3csl
UK, it’s not so much the price of fuel, it’s the extortionate duty! £1.42 per litre right now. Completely normal. £1.61 for 99 ron. anyway..
It will hurt UK greatly.. Your equity markets are oil heavy from BP etc. https://www.bp.com/en_gb/united-king...k-economy.html
An estimated 0.5% of UK GDP in 2018 was in some way reliant on BP’s activities – whether directly, indirectly, or through BP’s capital expenditure. That is £1 in every £183 of GDP created in the UK during the year.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,087
  • Mar 8, 2020 3:54am Mar 8, 2020 3:54am
Good to know.

Im guessing this is going to hurt the USD, gap downs across the board since everytbing is tied to oil, s&p etc.

maybe gold will keep flying and go for 1750 this week.

pretty scary trading times
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #54,088
  • Mar 8, 2020 4:06am Mar 8, 2020 4:06am
Quoting M3csl
Good to know. Im guessing this is going to hurt the USD, gap downs across the board since everytbing is tied to oil, s&p etc. maybe gold will keep flying and go for 1750 this week. pretty scary trading times
at this point or in a few days weeks maybe after another Rate cut. People will turn again on USD. it may be a safe heaven sooner than people will say trend change let's buy dips. (Eur/usd) for exemple
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,089
  • Mar 8, 2020 4:12am Mar 8, 2020 4:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It will hurt UK greatly.. Your equity markets are oil heavy from BP etc. https://www.bp.com/en_gb/united-king...k-economy.html An estimated 0.5% of UK GDP in 2018 was in some way reliant on BP’s activities – whether directly, indirectly, or through BP’s capital expenditure. That is £1 in every £183 of GDP created in the UK during the year.
Shell has a primary listing on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 100 Index. It had a market capitalisation of £216 billion at the close of trading on 27 June 2019, by far the largest of any company listed on the London Stock Exchange and among the highest of any company in the world.[18][19] It has secondary listings on Euronext Amsterdam and the New York Stock Exchange. As of January 2013, Shell's largest shareholder was Capital Research Global
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,090
  • Edited 4:27am Mar 8, 2020 4:16am | Edited 4:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Shell has a primary listing on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 100 Index. It had a market capitalisation of £216 billion at the close of trading on 27 June 2019, by far the largest of any company listed on the London Stock Exchange and among the...
Not just the oil, uk exchanges have a large footprint in commodities. Oil is just the canary in the coal mine. -30$ oil makes North sea oil research, development, and production cost prohibitive. It does the same in the U.S. and most of the world. Many billions of dollars already invested, will be lost with idle equipment. Oil is a large part of the credit market. A loss in price will leave banks holding a big bag..(middle class pay for gov bailouts)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,091
  • Mar 8, 2020 4:25am Mar 8, 2020 4:25am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} So they were smart again. now we see the confirmation
What's the point of owning a stock with a declining revenue? let it drop some more. pace buying on the fall. Alost blood in the streets.. maybe wait for jan 20 2017 levels and less 19808 dow area.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,092
  • Edited 5:18am Mar 8, 2020 4:56am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} What's the point of owning a stock with a declining revenue? let it drop some more. pace buying on the fall. Alost blood in the streets.. maybe wait for jan 20 2017 levels and less 19808 dow area.
imho this is what happens as an investor a real one. and investing is done probabily a very smal % today.

1 - in investing risk comes in buying to high
2 -you want to be greedy when others are fearful
3 - so now you now the theory perfect - practice is way complicate because

a) you don't have money in bear markets - you lose you're job as a person
b) you go bankrupt or don't have cash to take out of the business and invest -
c) so money has to come selling business, stocks when they are wanted

4 - i do not believe in timing markets on investing - there is no way you know where the bottom is. so you buy and you buy more. but not the dumb buying that's like oh they drop let's buy - there are things you watch on company, on downtrends. like debt, cashflow, expansion ....
let's take AAPL for example
https://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?...&ty=c&ta=0&p=m

when are you buying - 260 ? 250 ? 200 ? 100 ? below ? you don't know where is the bottom
what about TSLA ? just and example. not recomending AAPL or TSLA
ok let's say you buy them next year or 2 years from now on 300 - 350 (AAPL) or 1000-1500 TSLA ? nothing wrong with that. but you are not investing - that's trading

5 - Is the world ending ? ok then it doesn't matter you stock portfolio is gone. because dropping hard from here is what we thing it's happening - world ending.
stock market will ban shorting stock market will close. ok back to investment

is buying a stock investing ? NO
this is investing - maybe bad but it's a start

“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
“Buy a stock the way you would buy a house. Understand and like it such that you’d be content to own it in the absence of any market.”

6. So are you investing money you need for the next 10 years ? NO


just some ideas. Let's say you have a business passive. cannot expand. cannot grow it. competition is here you are out in a few years
would you sell now to buy some US companies for 10 years ? probably a good idea not an advice.

I remember 2009 when a lot of investor from Europe were saying why is USA going up and our stock markets are not.

So THE DIP came. and nobody is is buying ? strange right ? this was about investment.

Trading is way way way more different. and nothing written in this message would help a trader. problem is when you think you are investing but you're trading buying something you see is falling for 10% up, or worse buying something because it drop, drops more and you say well I am a long term investor.

But as an investor as Graham used to describe him buying good companies will get you a good return over the years.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,093
  • Mar 8, 2020 5:15am Mar 8, 2020 5:15am
Link

Northern Italy will be in lockdown.
Will it bring EurUsd down?
  • #54,094
  • Edited 6:10am Mar 8, 2020 5:57am | Edited 6:10am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} imho this is what happens as an investor a real one. and investing is done probabily a very smal % today. 1 - in investing risk comes in buying to high 2 -you want to be greedy when others are fearful 3 - so now you now the theory perfect - practice is way complicate because a) you don't have money in bear markets - you lose you're job as a person b) you go bankrupt or don't have cash to take out of the business and invest - c) so money has to come selling business, stocks when they are wanted 4 - i do not believe in timing markets on investing...
25 and 50 percent declines on quality stocks are a good buys.
add previous declines together and buy that level.
to early to buy long term yet in my view
  • #54,095
  • Mar 8, 2020 6:02am Mar 8, 2020 6:02am
Quoting PxtzP
{quote} 50 percent declines on quality stocks are a good buys. add previous declines together and buy that level. to early to buy long term yet in my view
nobody knows how much the fall will be, and maybe it's not the best thread here to elaborate on this. Since at least here there is a trading zone.
so don't like to confuse. hope i'm not
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,096
  • Mar 8, 2020 6:05am Mar 8, 2020 6:05am
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/corona...n=fxstreetnews
I EAT PIPS
  • #54,097
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:07am Mar 8, 2020 7:07am
14 Brent otw?

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...60#post9834260
  • #54,098
  • Mar 8, 2020 7:32am Mar 8, 2020 7:32am
Quoting Boulder
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-B4LmXpdE7Q&t=0s
Happy Women's Day Today (Sunday, March 8, 2020 ) Boulder, Hope You Have Another Successful Week In Your Trading, smile
Cancelled Membership, Accused By FF Member(i'll Be Back) of Being A Con Man
  • #54,099
  • Edited 7:46am Mar 8, 2020 7:36am | Edited 7:46am
Quoting goosebone
14 Brent otw? https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...60#post9834260
i couldn't find that post last week. I knew it was there but was unable to find it in a search. I stand by it today.. 14 oil target, after 56. It's done the 56 norm already. next is 14. I still dont have the original.. I think it was targeting 56 Plus as normal, after reaching the 2x low. I think oil was in the 2x area when 56 was posted. oil going up double didnt seem possible. oil dropping to 14 didnt seem possible at 56. lets see how it plays out..
.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...60#post9834260. ...Thanks
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,100
  • Mar 8, 2020 8:12am Mar 8, 2020 8:12am
even bitcoin is down.
if it is to panic. people will sell everything.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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