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The Swamp

  • #54,041
  • Mar 6, 2020 8:34pm Mar 6, 2020 8:34pm
Quoting Boulder
I watch One number only, wait to see bears can hold EurUsd below 1.1188 at NY close tomorrow, which its weekly downtrend stop...good luck...
Bears failed to hold weekly downtrend stop today at NY close... EurUsd big trends are changing,, make sure we start to adjust to the change.. not fight the big trends..,,
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  • #54,042
  • Mar 6, 2020 8:45pm Mar 6, 2020 8:45pm
COT report as of Tuesday Mar 3rd, institutions and hedge funds contributed to this EurUsd rally, they closed a lot of more shorts 33K contracts than longs 5k contracts this week
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  • #54,043
  • Mar 6, 2020 9:09pm Mar 6, 2020 9:09pm
another possible Fed cut this weekend b4 forex market open. weird 3% up move just b4 close on Dow
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,044
  • Mar 6, 2020 9:31pm Mar 6, 2020 9:31pm

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  • #54,045
  • Mar 6, 2020 9:58pm Mar 6, 2020 9:58pm
U.S. death rate, of cases with an outcome is 57%.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,046
  • Mar 6, 2020 11:57pm Mar 6, 2020 11:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
U.S. death rate, of cases with an outcome is 57%. {image}
also the only place where deaths are more than severe cases.
and they say don't trust china numbers. well ... .
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,047
  • Edited 12:29am Mar 7, 2020 12:05am | Edited 12:29am
• 4 new countries/territories/areas (Bhutan, Cameroon, Serbia, and South Africa) have reported cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours.
• As the COVID-19 outbreak continues to evolve, comparisons have been drawn to influenza. WHO has provided a Q&A regarding the similarities and differences between the two diseases.


WHO outside of China doesn't look good. a little delayed (1 day)

Globally 98 192 confirmed (2873 new)

China 80 711 confirmed (146 new)
3045 deaths (30 new)

Outside of China 17 481 confirmed (2727 new)
335 deaths (69 new)
88 Countries/territories/ areas (4 new)

USA still bad on reports. so numbers should be bigger

Different better reports are

3770 cases for march 6! excluding China
101.925 total cases

China +99 - people coming back to work on monday tuesday - > about 70% of the production capacity ! - Very important is to see if numbers goes up next week

Korea +505 (staying near 500 daily)
USA +88 (almost triple the last day) weekend is coming - already 4 reported today - testing only next week - this are lab confirmed
France + 230 double the last day
Germany + 239 (double the last day)
Italy + 778 going up
UK +48 double last day
Spain +115 (double the last day)
Iran +1234 almost triple
Switzerland +98 (triple)
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,048
  • Mar 7, 2020 12:45am Mar 7, 2020 12:45am
China Jan-Feb exports -17.2% y/y (v. est -14.0%, Dec +7.9%) but imports -4.0% (v. est -15.0%, Dec +16.5%).

China posted trade deficit $7.1bln (v. est $24.6bln surplus). Big drop but China says impact on imports not yet significant. 1st time Jan-Feb combined.

Now Corona moving to Europe and USA
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,049
  • Edited 1:13am Mar 7, 2020 1:03am | Edited 1:13am
Quoting gatorinla
another possible Fed cut this weekend b4 forex market open. weird 3% up move just b4 close on Dow
If they cut again then other CBs like the ECB may be forced into action. In any case, EU is mighty bullish! That weekly chart is scary as hell.
  • #54,050
  • Mar 7, 2020 4:23am Mar 7, 2020 4:23am
Wow those virus numbers are bad!!

Iran though! Wow, I see why people are saying it’s all a biological attack lol
I play the trade gamble to feed my Porsche addiction.
  • #54,051
  • Mar 7, 2020 4:46am Mar 7, 2020 4:46am
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,052
  • Mar 7, 2020 5:50am Mar 7, 2020 5:50am
Quoting DMA Trader
• Iran +1234 almost triple
Iran confirms 1076 new cases of #Coronavirus in past 24 hours, including 21 new deaths. This brings the total number of infections to 5823 and the death toll to 145. 1669 have also recovered from the virus and been discharged from hospital

this is from today not yesterday - things are getting out of control also there were medical staff and doctors confirmed between deaths
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,053
  • Mar 7, 2020 7:32am Mar 7, 2020 7:32am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} If they cut again then other CBs like the ECB may be forced into action. In any case, EU is mighty bullish! That weekly chart is scary as hell.
ECB at -0% already. They would have to do some QE of some type. I dont know what. The ECB used to be very fiscal conservative. Some bank or 2 over there is desperate for our repo. I say bank, it could be a large life insurer (maybe multiple). The way the repo is done, its secret. The U.S. loans to a central bank (CB X.) Than CB X loans to a company (CY). CB X could have loaned the $ to CB Z. We dont know. The Fed may disclose the first CB (central bank). But after that we dont know "who got (needs)the $".

I can only speculate. The Brexit news is on the "down low". Reports about ECB wanting some monetary payback from GB for departure. Has turned up a big F-U from Boris J. I dont know what institution is needing more usd liquidity. GB has lots of colonies with their own CB. Something is fishy somewhere. The repo is leaving demand on the table. Who is to say that demand is not from a CB, the U.S. Fed deems less creditworthy. I'm pulling this out my ass. I dont know. Something is just not right. Maybe its the U.S. running this new higher fiscal deficit. I mean the demand for usd repo is there, yet the eu dollar rises.

I remember when the U.S. did the bank stress test's. The U.S. test was much more rigid than the EZ stress test. A large EZ bank or several may be showing cracks. The stress test for EZ banks is/was considered much weaker, than the U.S. model. One can see the markets view of Banks is dim, in the stock price. We hear over and over U.S. banks will make less $ at the lower rates. What's that say about European Banks at a negative rate? Corona will test these banks even greater than 2008. During the 2008 crisis the EZ interest rate was well above the U.S. rate. Much less profit potential now. Even before corona the repo was in high demand. The corona may have amplified that need. Since the repo is leaving the demand for U.S.D. unfilled. Something seems off.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,054
  • Mar 7, 2020 8:07am Mar 7, 2020 8:07am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Iran confirms 1076 new cases of #Coronavirus in past 24 hours, including 21 new deaths. This brings the total number of infections to 5823 and the death toll to 145. 1669 have also recovered from the virus and been discharged from hospital this is from today not yesterday - things are getting out of control also there were medical staff and doctors confirmed between deaths
Look at the last few months while moron politicians deemed this as nothing.

Man (P1)with flu systems visits GP doc office. He signs in, and the receptionist (2) reads clipboard. He sits the doc's office waiting room (coughs a few times) .(The office is now infected with a viral potential source from P1.) P1 Another nurse (3) takes weight and vitals. Doc (4) examines man. Tells man to go home and get some rest. You have the flu. Meanwhile that Doc goes about his normal day. Treating another 20 patients that day. The office waiting room is now infected with a viral potential source from P1. P1 . Oh this Doc is a partner with 4 other docs. With an average of 25 patients per day each. 2 are pediatricians. Each patient arrives with and average of 1 other to sit in waiting room (average 250 per day). 2 weeks later Doc (4) shows signs of the flu. Did I mention these kids attend the surrounding schools, and a few visit the retirement homes? Did I mention some of the kids go to daycare, some parents being divorced. Some kids spend time at dads across town with his new family? That (P1) took the bus to docs office? Or he thinks he caught the flu at the Superbowl? The ways this can spread is countless. It's already all over the world. It can live on a surface 9 days.
Have a good weekend..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #54,055
  • Mar 7, 2020 8:23am Mar 7, 2020 8:23am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ECB at -0% already. They would have to do some QE of some type. I dont know what. The ECB used to be very fiscal conservative. Some bank or 2 over there is desperate for our repo. I say bank, it could be a large life insurer (maybe multiple). The way the repo is done, its secret. The U.S. loans to a central bank (CB X.) Than CB X loans to a company (CY). CB X could have loaned the $ to CB Z. We dont know. The Fed may disclose the first CB (central bank). But after that we dont know "who got (needs)the $". I can only speculate. The Brexit...
My thinking is the US has more to lose than europe does or any country really. With the little to no response by Trump and his team for this coronavirus. Whos to say this thing cant wipe out 5-10% of our country. We have little to no testing even, this is really bad when we possibly have the best economy in the world. We have so much to lose its causing the dollar to plunge.
Motivation comes from within
  • #54,056
  • Mar 7, 2020 8:25am Mar 7, 2020 8:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Look at the last few months while moron politicians deemed this as nothing. Man (P1)with flu systems visits GP doc office. He signs in, and the receptionist (2) reads clipboard. He sits the doc's office waiting room (coughs a few times) .(The office is now infected with a viral potential source from P1.) P1 Another nurse (3) takes weight and vitals. Doc (4) examines man. Tells man to go home and get some rest. You have the flu. Meanwhile that Doc goes about his normal day. Treating another 20 patients that day. The office waiting room is...
unfortunately yes. and this is why is spreading. also people continue with their lives. but in china they stop everything

no China is working again. all eyes are on new cases next week

meanwhile test kits are not coming yet in USA. the 1 million kits has been delayed
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,057
  • Mar 7, 2020 8:30am Mar 7, 2020 8:30am
https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/stat...91155932975104

This is negative. -

Friday was the worst day in a decade for U.S. credit markets. Airlines, rental-car companies and cruise lines are all getting hammered. One of the world's greatest credit investors, Oaktree's Howard Marks, sees a buying
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,058
  • Mar 7, 2020 8:37am Mar 7, 2020 8:37am
Quoting DMA Trader
https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/stat...91155932975104 This is negative. - Friday was the worst day in a decade for U.S. credit markets. Airlines, rental-car companies and cruise lines are all getting hammered. One of the world's greatest credit investors, Oaktree's Howard Marks, sees a buying

But when is the question right? Is next week looking any better than this week? Virus is getting better? I dont see it yet.
Motivation comes from within
  • #54,059
  • Mar 7, 2020 8:41am Mar 7, 2020 8:41am
"Toward the end of 1971 it was possible to obtain 8% taxable interest on good medium term corporate bonds and 5.7% tax free on good state municipal securities. In the shorter-term field the investor could realize about 6% on U.S. government issues due in five years"

sounds like another planet
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #54,060
  • Mar 7, 2020 9:53am Mar 7, 2020 9:53am
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