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WTI Crude Oil (TRENDSURFING - with the help of the model)

  • #141
  • Mar 6, 2020 2:10pm Mar 6, 2020 2:10pm
Worst down day for oil this year - down $4.54.
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  • #142
  • Mar 6, 2020 2:37pm Mar 6, 2020 2:37pm
Quoting Hutch
Worst down day for oil this year - down $4.54. {image}
Yes, I agree, didn't saw that comming.. Glad I was out of the market.. Will see if I will re-enter it (BUY)... Will decide by/at the end of NEXT WEEK...

Quoting auricforecas
Awaiting data by the end of next week, before dipping into this market... I would still prefer to be on the BUY SIDE, but will wait, out of precaution.. Of course I am open to follow (any) trend, just not convinced at the current... So more to be seen soon!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #143
  • Mar 9, 2020 8:31am Mar 9, 2020 8:31am
Well since RU basically said "come at me bro" like they are ready for 25USD... I am not touching the market for the risk of being trapped...
Plan to jump on the BUY side asap, as soon as the situation will appear to stabilise a little and that the UP-trend begins...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #144
  • Mar 9, 2020 3:34pm Mar 9, 2020 3:34pm
Quoting auricforecas
Well since RU basically said "come at me bro" like they are ready for 25USD... I am not touching the market for the risk of being trapped... Plan to jump on the BUY side asap, as soon as the situation will appear to stabilise a little and that the UP-trend begins...
You might want to try Renko 5 points bricks. It works quite well with any half-trend indicator using an amplitude of 2
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  • #145
  • Mar 9, 2020 3:42pm Mar 9, 2020 3:42pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} You might want to try Renko 5 points bricks. It works quite well with any half-trend indicator using an amplitude of 2 {image}
Tnx, will lot into it but right now I can not afford to enter the possible bear trap Will wait for market to settle and then wait for the opportunity to jump on the RIDE (UP) I mean, this prices are CRAZY Also today was national holiday in Russia so let's wait what actually happens (by the end of this week for example)...
Right now their statement was basically like this: "Does it look like we need the money?"... But until I see who will "win" in this POKER game, I am not entering the market, specially since I believe/wait for the BUY (soon). But at the same time I am always ready to see/admit that I was wrong and jump on the other side without an effort But I will give it another week, or at least till the end of this one to see if the bluff (on either side) will be called... BTW at this prices I wonder if the production is still worthy at "some" parts of the world or if they would be better importing it
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #146
  • Mar 9, 2020 4:44pm Mar 9, 2020 4:44pm
Shiet... crazy WTI opportunity, entering BUY.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #147
  • Mar 10, 2020 2:24am Mar 10, 2020 2:24am
Quoting auricforecas
Shiet... crazy WTI opportunity, entering BUY.
Epic entry, also made parallel entry in CHEETAH thread with epic success. Nice.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #148
  • Mar 10, 2020 11:16am Mar 10, 2020 11:16am
Quoting auricforecas
Shiet... crazy WTI opportunity, entering BUY.
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Epic entry, also made parallel entry in CHEETAH thread with epic success. Nice.

That was one of the most epic entry in quite some time! Basically the only thing that was left as a deciding factor of profitability was set leverage But in general, the entry was EPIC win, the only risk (in retrospect) appeared to be too high leverage since it was some downspike later, if one was looking to make enormous profit in one trade anyway, but some still relatively LARGE leverages would go clean through. Not to mention the more conservative ones since we were somewhat aiming at 100% per YEAR in this thread (at about 20% DD) right.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #149
  • Mar 10, 2020 3:58pm Mar 10, 2020 3:58pm
Could you post a chart of the trade you took, Entry, SL, TP and why you took the trade? I was looking at buying WTI buy with sentiment the way it is I was worried it would come crashing down to $27 anytime. You clearly saw something I did not and were able to capitalize on it. Congrats.
  • #150
  • Mar 11, 2020 2:40pm Mar 11, 2020 2:40pm
Quoting theone964
Could you post a chart of the trade you took, Entry, SL, TP and why you took the trade? I was looking at buying WTI buy with sentiment the way it is I was worried it would come crashing down to $27 anytime. You clearly saw something I did not and were able to capitalize on it. Congrats.
The WTI went down by $1.66 today but this doesn't mean it cannot be traded. You can easily trade it with Renko 5 points bricks each one being equivalent to 5¢. You get some lousy trades but the good trades easily cover the small losses you may have. All you have to do is to follow the arrows on the halftrend indicator (amplitude 2 without showing the channel). Here are my best two trades today
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File Type: ex4 HalfTrend MTF with channels alerts.ex4   28 KB | 479 downloads
  • #151
  • Mar 11, 2020 2:42pm Mar 11, 2020 2:42pm
WTI down $1.66 today not worth calling mother
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  • #152
  • Mar 12, 2020 2:40pm Mar 12, 2020 2:40pm
Yup, not touching the market until I see the BUY opportunities (again)... Just won't fall for the slide, not this time... I think price is too low right now, even with everything considered.... But I might be wrong and will see that soon.. always ready to admit that and jump on the profitable side but will wait for at least a WEEK or like first half of the next week to see the "curves" and situation update...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #153
  • Mar 12, 2020 2:54pm Mar 12, 2020 2:54pm
Quoting auricforecas
Yup, not touching the market until I see the BUY opportunities (again)... Just won't fall for the slide, not this time... I think price is too low right now, even with everything considered.... But I might be wrong and will see that soon.. always ready to admit that and jump on the profitable side but will wait for at least a WEEK or like first half of the next week to see the "curves" and situation update...
Thank you Auri. You gave me the reply to my PM in this post when I while I was writing it. WTI went down $2.14 today. I had 2 good trades today
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  • #154
  • Mar 12, 2020 2:55pm Mar 12, 2020 2:55pm
Current "signal" is: Learn when not to trade.. I found that is is MUCH better to SKIP the trades, for whatever time it takes, than to be "always trading" and giving money/profits back... So AWAITING NEW DATA.. Might not need much but we are at a tipping point about and MANY critical parameters clashing simultaneously.

Serious corona situation, OIL disputes, FED/ECB massive interventions etc etc... Also middle east situation doesn't help... So won't be calling the shots till at least Mon, Tue of next week.... Most probably wills start entering/testing the market more, gradually, from 17MAR2020 on.. I believe we will have at least some data till then...
At least with corona since EXP functions show deviations/trends quickly...

BTW... still planning to be on the BUY SIDE (WTI) but need "confirmation" or at least some feedback from the market instead of "betting it all on number 7"
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #155
  • Mar 13, 2020 2:30pm Mar 13, 2020 2:30pm
Quoting auricforecas
Current "signal" is: Learn when not to trade.. I found that is is MUCH better to SKIP the trades, for whatever time it takes, than to be "always trading" and giving money/profits back...
You are entirely correct to follow the signal given by your model and refrain from trading. Unfortunately many traders don't follow their own strategy and over trade needlessly.
  • #156
  • Mar 13, 2020 2:33pm Mar 13, 2020 2:33pm
WTI almost made up yesterday's loss of $2.14 by going up $1.89 today. The price moves quite a bit during the day but it doesn't seem to go anywhere so far.
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  • #157
  • Mar 14, 2020 1:42pm Mar 14, 2020 1:42pm
Quoting Hutch
WTI almost made up yesterday's loss of $2.14 by going up $1.89 today. The price moves quite a bit during the day but it doesn't seem to go anywhere so far. {image}
Yup, we are/were in a gridlock POKER (RU, OPEC,...), but now some movements are expected... Comment about filling the (strategic) reserves helped also
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #158
  • Mar 16, 2020 2:21pm Mar 16, 2020 2:21pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yup, we are/were in a gridlock POKER (RU, OPEC,...), but now some movements are expected... Comment about filling the (strategic) reserves helped also
Well my friend it did not help enough WTI is down by $4.31 or 13% from Friday's close. Russia and Saudi Arabia don't give a damn about selling at low prices. A commentator stated that the production cost per barrel in Russia is $7 and $3 in Saudi Arabia. At the end both countries will win with the only loser being shale oil producers in the US since they are heavily indebted and have a production cost of around $45 per barrel.
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  • #159
  • Mar 16, 2020 2:26pm Mar 16, 2020 2:26pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Well my friend it did not help enough WTI is down by $4.31 or 13% from Friday's close. Russia and Saudi Arabia don't give a damn about selling at low prices. A commentator stated that the production cost per barrel in Russia is $7 and $3 in Saudi Arabia. At the end both countries will win with the only loser being shale oil producers in the US since they are heavily indebted and have a production cost of around $45 per barrel. {image}
Yes, I totally agree with everything Was talking about this here also. But do not worry, you did not help or hurt at all.. I know when I don't know so I stay(ed) out of the market... Awaiting to jump on the buy-side, just can not risk to be BEAR-trapped... But am always open to switch if I will see some persistence/trend in this, outside of Corona situation even... BTW was also discussing the production costs here.. You think it is really that hight? I found that is it abut 20USD, but yeah, could be wrong...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #160
  • Mar 17, 2020 2:57pm Mar 17, 2020 2:57pm
Oh well another day another down day for oil. $1.64 from yesterday almost 6%. I think we will see $25 soon.
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