Elliot Wave Trading

thanks very much dear MR.jjenkin777

for your great efforts.







take care and happy next week

sourour

<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->A LOOK AT THIS WEEK







USDCAD closed today this trade was opened maybe a week a little over a week ago. at 1.1396 up 1.1180 today 2 pips from the low of 1.1178. for tp of 216 pips

USDJPY short at 119.10 sl is 119.85 tp will be 117.40for 150 pips
TOOK MY PROFIT TODAY ON THIS PAIR.

FiXmE1ToO Center Pointe is 3 for 3 so far since Wednesday. 50 pips each night on the GBPUSD pair. I thought that maybe today was gonna be the turnaround day and we would lose on the center point system. Lets see how it does next week.
10-25-06 +50 pips
10-26-06 +50 pips
10-27-06 +50 pips

Does anyone have suggestions for other pairs to trade That will have good ATR and not expensive to trade?

Totals todate since 9-11-06
+1351 -345 this will not include FiXmE1ToO's Center Point until I trade it live.

+1222 since 9-11-06


WEEK TO COME

USDCAD may retrace will need to watch may go a little lower to 1.1135 before mini wave 3 of BIGGER C wave completes once this happens we will form a wave 4 and then trade the mini wave 5 down for completion of this C wave lets hope mini wave 4 does not overextend so we can form a nice mini wave 5


USDJPY I believe we will go up to between 118.77 and 119.25 We have just completed and Big A wave on this pair Now we must go up to Complete B wave before shorting again for very big profit like we are gonna get on the USDCAD pair.

AUDUSD Lets wait to see if an A wave form on the 4hour chart if it does we let B wave complete then catch the C wave down will post numbers later in week after an A wave forms. But from the looks of things we are already forming an A wave that may go to .7600-.7550 lets stay out of this one until it shows its hand.

EURUSD need to watch price action of Monday to have better gauge on this pair.

and THE GOOD OLE GBPUSD I believe will hit its point early next week before making a retracement and actually this is what I believe EURUSD will do as well. Maybe as high as the 1.2800 mark. Although both pairs look like they are already set for retracement now. If we retrace now we will go higher than the 1.9050's on the GBPUSD

Hope everyone have a very nice weekend and lets make some money next week.http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif
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From looking at the daily charts on audusd it really looks like it would like to go to between .7520 and 7475 I would short this one next week. I really dont see it going higer than .7730 and thats being very genorous. Im short on this pair next week on first examination on the 4 hour charts it did not show what I am seeing on the daily. Excellent short for next week I would say more so than any of the other pair I trade.

fixme1too should have a dedicated forum of his own "Eliot Wave" just like "Mouteki" having its own forum.

Anyone agree?

Agree, although I have been looking at the thread ""Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment that supposedly is based on EW, and 80% of the recommendations turn up as losing money. I may start trading some by going vs. their picks. Is it EW or just that they don't read it correctly? It's hilarious to read that thread. They have been mostlt everday for the last 2 weeks recommending to short the cable based on some new wave forming? Well sooner or later the wave will come if you keep doing that continously, but you won't have any money left in the account.

Thanks Sourour. I am a newbie with EW, so I always need a chart in front of me. I am getting enough confidence with trading that I plan on opening a live account in January. Things should get real exciting then.

Jeffrey

I would agree EW needs it's own Niche Forum because I think EW is a very powerful trading system. That is why I try to post charts when ever I can. We need to have discussions about the counts in each currency pair. The worst thing that can happen to you, is you absolutely believe there is only one count that fits a currency pair and refuse to believe when new price action says otherwise.

Fixme1too and I are having a discussion about Eur/Usd right now. He sees it one way and I see it another. The problem is that we may never know what the true count is until the pattern is over, then the next pattern begins and we start all over. The important point is to remain flexible so if price action goes against your primary count you can see if your alternate count fits the action and react accordingly.

So lets talk it up everyone.

Jeffrey

GBPUSD may have fizzled out for now topping at 1.9003. We are going to retrace next week to between 1.8814 and 1.8757. Let see were we open at tomorrow for Mondays bar not Sundays bar. Once we finish the Big Wave two Im gonna get on for long ride upwards to at least 1.9115 min. from low of 1.8814 this will be a 300 pip move.
The same is going to happen with the Euro. The Euro is gonna retrace to 1.2585 and 1.2540 befor moving upwards strongly. Right now we have just completed an Big A wave on daily we be going downwards to previous points mentioned.

As previously mentioned on the AUDUSD this has short written all over it from Sundays open to will post sl late but the tp will be between .7523 and .7476 potential 162 and 209 pip profit. I like this pair because you can buy so much with very little capitol being used.
I feel very strong about these pairs from chart indications.


the usdjpy and usdcad will continue its overall downward trend but right now we are set up for a retrace. good reentry on the usdcad pair is looing like 1.1245 and 1300 and about 118.80 for USDJPY. Lets just watch these pairs play out and get back in after the retrace.


In the future I will do my "LOOK AT THIS WEEK AND WEEK TO COME" analysis on Saturdays after a good nites rest. During the week when I work Im up at 4am and not back home until between 7 and 8 pm. I dont want to make miscalculations putting us on the wrong side of trade during the week.

<Q>Money management is like sex: Everyone does it, one way or another, but not many like to talk about it and some do it better than others. But there's a big difference: Sex sites on the Web proliferate, while sites devoted to the art and science of money management are somewhat difficult to find.</Q>
<CITE>Gibbons Burke</CITE>
<CITE>Money Management FAQ

In the twenty-first century it has become fashionable to manage one's own investments, yet few traders implement disciplined, professional money management strategies. During the stock market bubble, limiting risk was an afterthought, but given the recent price action, it’s time to get serious about management of money and risk. Professional risk and money management strategies are the foundation for success. Essentially, money management tells you how many lots and type of lots (eg.micro mini) to trade at a given point.

Money management is a defensive concept. It keeps you in the game to play another day. For example, money management tells you whether you have enough new money to trade additional positions. Don’t confuse money management with stop placement. Stop placement does not address the how much question.

Money management is risk management. Risk management is the difference between success or failure in trading. Trading correctly is 90% money management, a fact that most people want to avoid or don't understand. Once you have the money management down though, your discipline and psychology is 100% of your success.

Money management optimizes capital usage.Few have the ability to view their portfolios as a whole. Even fewer traders and investors make the move from a defensive or reactive view of risk, in which they measure risk to avoid losses, to an offensive or proactive posture in which risks are actively managed for a more efficient use of capital. Trend Following risk management formulas and philosophies are key to increasing profits while controlling risk.

Q. What are some issues addressed by money management or bet sizing?
A. For example:

1. How much capital do you place on each trade.
2. What is the heat of your trading.
3. Capital preservation v. capital appreciation.
4. When do you experience expectation of success.
5. When must you take a loss to avoid larger losses.
6. If you are on a losing streak do you trade the same.
7. How must you prepare if trading both long and short positions.
8. Does a portfolio of long and short allow one to trade more positions.
9. How is your trading adjusted with accumulated new profits.
10. How is volatility handled.
11. How do you prepare yourself psychologically.
12. Have you tested your bet sizing.

Q. Does money management impact a decision to trade the same number of contracts or shares in all markets?
A. Yes. Money and portfolio management rules dictate the number of contracts or shares. Precise formulas set forth size. A trader who uses a constant trading size gives up an important edge in much the same way a poker player does when always betting the same regardless of what cards are on the table. Common single contract/share measures of trading system performance such as win/loss ratio, percent winning trades, etc. are of little value to decision-making when using Trend Following systems (and the Turtle system). Often the best trading approach, when tested on a single contract/share basis, will turn out not to be the best approach when money management strategies are incorporated.

Q. What about short term trading? Isn't short term less risky, and therefore you don’t need money management strategies?
A. Short term trading is not, by definition, less risky. Some people may mistakenly apply a cause and effect relationship between using a long term strategy and the potential of incurring large loss. They forget profit and loss are proportional. A short term system will never allow you to be in the trend long enough to achieve large profits. You end up with small losses but also small profits. Added together, numerous small losses equal a big loss. When you trade for the long term, you have a more positive expectation in terms of the size of the move. In the big picture, the larger the move, the larger the validation of the move. If you were trading some short term pattern predictive system you would never be able to participate fully in the big trends. Big trends make the big profits.

Q. How does money management impact drawdowns?
A. All systems have drawdowns. You can't have a profitable methodology, without taking some calculated risks as well as some losses. Trend Following drawdowns are a function of the risk level desired. Risk level among Trend Followers varies depending upon the size of the profit they seek. For example, if you sought 100%+ a year gains you must be prepared for the possibility of a 30% drawdown. Anyone who promises you can make 100%+ with only the possibility of a 5% drawdown is lying.

Q. Can you manage margin issues?
A. Required margin has little to do with money management considerations. For example, if the margin was dropped from $5000 to $2500 on a particular pair must you trade twice as many shares or contracts? Of course not. Margin issues are not money management.

Q. Is slippage a concern with money management?
A. No one wants bad fills. But Trend Following for the long term places far less emphasis on perfect fills for success. In contrast, short term traders' transaction costs and skids on their fills affect their bottom line to a much greater degree.

Q. What is the win/loss ratio of Trend Following management? Can it experience many losses in a row?
A. Trend Following systems trade for the outsized large move. Several big trends a year are your key to success. The strategy cuts your losing positions quickly. Consequently, a few big trades will make up the bulk of your profits and many small trades will make up your losses. Winning trades can range from 35-50%, but that percentage reveals little information since we expect more losses (of smaller value) than winners (of much larger value). Win/loss ratio, while a favorite of the novice trader, has limited use in terms of Trend Following analysis.

</CITE><CITE></CITE>

How Do You Make a Million?
If you are convinced that it is truly possible to make your first million with Forex trading, the next question is: How do I get there?

I have devised a way of calculating how long the journey would take with the following variables:

1. <LI class=GCbluebold_14>Maximum percentage of total equity on each trade <LI class=GCbluebold_14>Your initial trading capital <LI class=GCbluebold_14>Risk: reward ratio <LI class=GCbluebold_14>Number of winning and losing trades per month <LI class=GCbluebold_14>Number of profitable months in a year
2. Number of years the trading account is compounded

Once you have decided on not trading more than X% of your total equity on a single trade, you are limiting the maximum dollar loss on a trade. Let's say you do not risk more than 3% on each trade on an initial trading capital of $20k. That means you don't want to lose more than $600 per trade, and assuming you trade a currency pair with USD as the counter currency like EUR/USD, each pip of 10k face value will equal $1. If you want to set your stop at a maximum of 40 pips, and you don't want to lose more than $600 on each trade, you would be trading 1.5 standard lot (150,000 face value) of EUR/USD on each trade.


And assuming you have a risk:reward ratio of 2:1 , and assuming you have 2 losses and 2 gains per month notice I said month not week. (with the center point method you will get atleast 8 wins in a month.) But for this formula lets do worst case cenerio your average profit per month would be around 99 pips. Now, 99 pips of profit from 1.5 standard lot of EUR/USD would translate to 99 x 15 (each pip per 1.5 standard lot will cost $15) = $1485 per month.


Next you assume the number of profitable months that you have in a year. Let's say you assume 8 profitable months in a year. This is of course a very simplistic way of calculating in advance because you do not know if you can be profitable in that number of months. Some months you may make more than 99 pips per month, and that positive spillover may be used to offset other losing months, such that hypothetically, you have no losses for the remaining 4 months. That would mean you would make $1485x 8 = 11877k in the first year assuming all the above-mentioned variables.

Now, you may say that you make much more in salary in a year than that amount! But, wait. This 11877k profit from the first year will be added to your initial trading account, and assuming that you make a positive ROI (return on investment) in year 2 again, that amount will be COMPOUNDED.

As you can see, it IS possible to grow your money, and to make your first million and subsequent millions with Forex. You can plan around how many trades you want to trade, and aim how much profit or loss you are willing to take in order to turn out positive. Do not be in a hurry to achieve your goal of making your first million! Take sensible small steps instead of risky huge steps, and you will be eternally thankful for that.

yr start - year end - profit
/ amt
<TABLE class=tableblue><TBODY><TR class=tablelight_blue_row onmouseover="ChangeOneLayer('month-year1','visible')" onmouseout="ChangeOneLayer('month-year1','hidden')"><TD>1</TD><TD>$20000</TD><TD>$31877 </TD><TD>$11877</TD></TR><TR class=tabledark_blue_row onmouseover="ChangeOneLayer('month-year2','visible')" onmouseout="ChangeOneLayer('month-year2','hidden')"><TD>2</TD><TD>$31877</TD><TD>$50807</TD><TD>$18930</TD></TR><TR class=tablelight_blue_row onmouseover="ChangeOneLayer('month-year3','visible')" onmouseout="ChangeOneLayer('month-year3','hidden')"><TD>3</TD><TD>$50807</TD><TD>$80979</TD><TD>$30172</TD></TR><TR class=tabledark_blue_row onmouseover="ChangeOneLayer('month-year4','visible')" onmouseout="ChangeOneLayer('month-year4','hidden')"><TD>4</TD><TD>$80979</TD><TD>$129068</TD><TD>$48089</TD></TR><TR class=tablelight_blue_row onmouseover="ChangeOneLayer('month-year5','visible')" onmouseout="ChangeOneLayer('month-year5','hidden')"><TD>5</TD><TD>$129068</TD><TD>$205714</TD><TD>$76647</TD></TR><TR class=tabledark_blue_row onmouseover="ChangeOneLayer('month-year6','visible')" onmouseout="ChangeOneLayer('month-year6','hidden')"><TD>6</TD><TD>$205714</TD><TD>$327877</TD><TD>$122163</TD></TR><TR class=tablelight_blue_row onmouseover="ChangeOneLayer('month-year7','visible')" onmouseout="ChangeOneLayer('month-year7','hidden')"><TD>7</TD><TD>$327877</TD><TD>$522587</TD><TD>$194709</TD></TR><TR class=tabledark_blue_row onmouseover="ChangeOneLayer('month-year8','visible')" onmouseout="ChangeOneLayer('month-year8','hidden')"><TD>8</TD><TD>$522587</TD><TD>$832924</TD><TD>$310337</TD></TR><TR class=tablelight_blue_row onmouseover="ChangeOneLayer('month-year9','visible')" onmouseout="ChangeOneLayer('month-year9','hidden')"><TD>9 </TD><TD>$832924</TD><TD>$1327554</TD><TD>$494630</TD></TR><TR class=tabledark_blue_row onmouseover="ChangeOneLayer('month-year10','visible')" onmouseout="ChangeOneLayer('month-year10','hidden')"><TD>10</TD><TD>$1327554</TD><TD>$2115920</TD><TD>$788366</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I used such small numbers because any body should be able to avg 5 pips perday using 20 days to a month you can do that with center point even with 3 losing days and only 2 winning days if using 2:1 in one week. This would give you 50 pips per week. 200 pips per month 2900 pips per year 39000 dollar profit per year 28,000 more than my first year figures above this could easily be done using "Fixme1too's Center point" method Guys lets step the game up and make this happen. Even with The Elliot wave theory so far I have been avg about 600 pips per month since 9-11-06. At this rate we can all be Millionares in 1 year then be like Bill Lipschultz and the rest of "THE MASTER TRADERS" listed on page 11 #154 of my thread. I really think this can easily be achieved. Even if you dont have but 5,000 dollars to start with you can still become a millionare within 5 years winning only 5 times and having 2 losses per month you will have $944418 risking 2% of your starting capitol. Keep in mind the key phrase here is "per month and compounding."

Since the start of this thread, it has become a little easier for me to see the waves and really indetify what wave we are in. Ultimately, making profits easier to come for us. Don't take this as overconfident statement, because just as easy as the profits come they can be lost very quickly and I know this to be true from past experience. The purpose of me posting this and the prior two msgs, is an attempt by me to get you all to see the bigger picture. It feels good when we are winning are making good profits but loosing leaves that knot in your stomach, but if we manage our losses then we can sleep at night and manage that knot as well. If we are indeed locking in big profit lets use good money management skills to keep our profits. My goal is not only to help others by making money but also to share and teach the other aspects that are a part of trading. Mainly money management skills. Each week when I post " A LOOK AT THIS WEEK AND THE WEEK TO COME" if I come across some good reading or things that will make us all better traders I will post it. Also I am working with a fellow trader, Northpro he too has his own thread. I hope its okay for me to list this NP but this guy is like a " freak of nature" when it comes to devising systems based on price action. As we speak, he is on the verge of something very big in regard to price action. He already has a system " WAVETRADE" that is like 14 and 3 win ratio for this year alone. Thats outstanding. You should check out his thread if you havent yet. Last year his realized pips were like 6000 this is dbl whats need to become a MILLIONARE using the formula I previous posted. I feel good about this week to come.

"LET'S GET THIS MONEY AND HAVE FUN DOING IT"http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif

Thank you for everything Fixme, and let's open some Heinekens to celebrate your 200 posts!

Sounds like a winner. Also I just opened a live chat room on paltalk. The room name is "fixme1toos forex trading room"http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon10.gif

Just to discuss different ideas live.

If anyone is trading center point system it is advised not to trade it on mondays open meaning tonight at 8 pm est. wait until tomorrow at 8pm to open your position if you are using this system.

A good 2:1 R/R trade this week would be USDJPY with tp at 118.75 and sl at 116.80. audusd is another with tp at modest .7555 and sl at .7735. this is a little better at 2.6 to 1 I would be real suprised to see stop get hit on this one. When usd news come out tommorow I would stretch out stop for safety if you cant watch it play out but even if we do get spike it should be small for this pair and it will quickly return where it should. Just as usdcad did last week. I say the spike will be small on this pair because of ATR is 40 pips per day avg. I think Friday we did a little better with 60 pip move for the day on this pair. Another good strong indicator for my signals is all pairs with USD cross are saying dollar will be strong for this week. Once this move is over USD will be weak for a while maybe week or twohttp://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif

Can you tell us what time of day will you be on line in paltalk.... love to learn to trade for a living. thanks.

I work 3 days a week 12 hours a day. on the days I work I will be online about 9 pm on days that I am not working I will be on about 4pm. Weekends Im pretty much online a good part of the day especially in the evenings. My plan is if we get enough people on board we can all interact live and share strategies as well as go more in detail on elliot wave theories. By the way this will be all FREE not looking for anything other than good ideas.

Can you please post elliot wave study material...if you have any ??

Thanks

looks like usdcad wants to go down already wonder how close it will get to 1.1135 before making strong move up.

I really honestly have not read any books the only thing I have read is the rules for elliot wave theory check out this site I think it should be straight forward http://trading-stocks.netfirms.com/tradingsignals.htmhttp://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif