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The Swamp

  • #53,361
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:15pm Mar 3, 2020 5:15pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{image}
wow,,, the underreporting. By not testing people. Is bringing the death rate to 5.6%.

Multiplied X 270 million people is over 15.12 million. Using the 1/3 infection rate, takes it to 5 million people. Feeling good about grandma now?

Of course the sample is too small. But the morons trying to keep the real numbers from the public. Are going to get bitten.

Its amazing the ones bragging on the u.S. heath systems has a 5.6% death rate.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #53,362
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:22pm Mar 3, 2020 5:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} wow,,, the underreporting by not testing people. Is bringing the death rate to 5.6%. multiplied X 170 million people is over 15.12 million. Using the 1/3 infection rate tates it to 5 million people. Feeling good about grandma now?

they took her money, now the are killing her
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #53,363
  • Mar 3, 2020 5:31pm Mar 3, 2020 5:31pm
The Fed emergency rate cut will hurt the eu swap. Plus the anticipated one this month. The eu short is less attractive as a carry trade. One of the reasons I preferred shorting. The 1.1215 area is still inline with trend. But likely less strong now.

9 dead in Washington state now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #53,364
  • Edited 6:17pm Mar 3, 2020 5:54pm | Edited 6:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} wow,,, the underreporting. By not testing people. Is bringing the death rate to 5.6%. Multiplied X 270 million people is over 15.12 million. Using the 1/3 infection rate, takes it to 5 million people. Feeling good about grandma now? Of course the sample is too small. But the morons trying to keep the real numbers from the public. Are going to get bitten. Its amazing the ones bragging on the u.S. heath systems has a 5.6% death rate.
9 dead now, that brings the death rate up to 8.33%. Age wise 70 and up is 9% of the population. (That's the closest I can get). By the time weak, younger, are figured in. It will be higher than 71 years old. Maybe its a plan to stop social security benefits. When you add in normal mortality. Those life insurance companies will take a big hit. Not to mention the rate cut is going to be salt on the wound. For the old's fixed income and life insurance companies.

I had to add them up manually http://www.censusscope.org/us/chart_age.html
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #53,365
  • Mar 3, 2020 7:16pm Mar 3, 2020 7:16pm
Inserted Video
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #53,366
  • Mar 3, 2020 7:41pm Mar 3, 2020 7:41pm
Gold monthly & weekly looking good, continuing to build short positions eu couple pips short of 100% retracement form dec/ jan swing gj last week awesome, now waiting to see what 137 00 will do uc back into weekly range (smidgen)
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #53,367
  • Mar 3, 2020 8:38pm Mar 3, 2020 8:38pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Gold monthly & weekly looking good, continuing to build short positions eu couple pips short of 100% retracement form dec/ jan swing gj last week awesome, now waiting to see what 137 00 will do uc back into weekly range (smidgen)
eu 1 1212 should be top in place right a utl of falling channel monthly well worth defending :-)
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #53,368
  • Mar 3, 2020 8:41pm Mar 3, 2020 8:41pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Tomorrow CAD BOC Rate Statement CAD Overnight Rate 1.50%1.75%
It;s forecasting 1.25% now
  • #53,369
  • Mar 3, 2020 9:08pm Mar 3, 2020 9:08pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Gold monthly & weekly looking good, continuing to build short positions eu couple pips short of 100% retracement form dec/ jan swing gj last week awesome, now waiting to see what 137 00 will do uc back into weekly range (smidgen)
I Just Watched Again, The Movie, "THE BIG SHORT" It Was Made In 2015, But It Is A Classic Now To Me Atleast.
It Reminds Me Of This Current Eur/Usd Bullish Retrace Right Now Up To 1.12135 Today.

I Continue To Hold Short On My Eur/Usd Trades.

If The Fall Starts, Will It Be Fast? Maybe

What A Movie - THE BIG SHORT
Cancelled Membership, Accused By FF Member(i'll Be Back) of Being A Con Man
  • #53,370
  • Mar 3, 2020 9:10pm Mar 3, 2020 9:10pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} eu 1 1212 should be top in place right a utl of falling channel monthly well worth defending :-)
First Support Is 1.1100
Cancelled Membership, Accused By FF Member(i'll Be Back) of Being A Con Man
  • #53,371
  • Mar 3, 2020 11:48pm Mar 3, 2020 11:48pm
Good morning
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #53,372
  • Mar 3, 2020 11:49pm Mar 3, 2020 11:49pm
Quoting DMA Trader
SPX 3040-3060 should see some resistance - i am not closing my long but - closing above would look bullish imho
3042 wow - what happen -
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #53,373
  • Mar 3, 2020 11:51pm Mar 3, 2020 11:51pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Short EU 1.1184 - stop above 1.122
+25 out
it will probably fall big today
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #53,374
  • Mar 3, 2020 11:55pm Mar 3, 2020 11:55pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Long SPX 3010 - up up up baby
out +30 handles.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #53,375
  • Mar 4, 2020 12:05am Mar 4, 2020 12:05am
Quoting gatorinla
The Fed emergency rate cut will hurt the eu swap. Plus the anticipated one this month. The eu short is less attractive as a carry trade. One of the reasons I preferred shorting. The 1.1215 area is still inline with trend. But likely less strong now. 9 dead in Washington state now.
yes. one of the good trades was killed. but probably Europe will do something in this coordination. maybe it will be fiscal. not monetary
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #53,376
  • Mar 4, 2020 12:07am Mar 4, 2020 12:07am
Quoting orangekoala
{quote} It;s forecasting 1.25% now

CAD dropped hard over the last weeks maybe "it's in the price. i would only watch WTI for USD/CAD trades
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #53,377
  • Edited 12:39am Mar 4, 2020 12:11am | Edited 12:39am
Quoting messi80
{quote} Yeah it’s definitely not perfect but they never really are. The markings for this indicator are wrong but the structure of the pattern is still right. And i never made a story here lol. Its an indicator that i use and works really well. If anyone took the pattern yesterday you coulda made 50-60 pips. Thats what im looking for. Sorry if what posted was taken out of place. All i really said was that it could be forming. And that we could move down 50% of this up move. Not to take any trade or anything like that. Some story there bud.
I told you why the pattern is not right and then you say the pattern is right.
The target of a 450 pip shark is not 50-60 pips. You did not call a 50-60 pip target.
You kept adjusting your shark as price went up.
A 50% retrace is normal.

The reason for this bump is not your shark.
Its the 23.6 fib in combination with support/resistance.
I don't know if it will retrace now.
a 1221 high would be nicer. won't pick a top. waiting for a pattern

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  • #53,378
  • Mar 4, 2020 12:12am Mar 4, 2020 12:12am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} yes. one of the good trades was killed. but probably Europe will do something in this coordination. maybe it will be fiscal. not monetary
yeah trend wise, 1215 top if it holds. Since may 5 2018 dynamic wise. That's the highest top (1213/14) But the swap lost some shine.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #53,379
  • Mar 4, 2020 12:43am Mar 4, 2020 12:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah trend wise, 1215 top if it holds. Since may 5 2018 dynamic wise. That's the highest top (1213/14) But the swap lost some shine.

i am expecting for ESF and other stock markets to go up more. to form a resistance and than down.
EUR should fall on this drop after that trading should be harder with much manipulation. so again trying to reduce position as light as i can be.
at least until VIX goes down below 20

Until then probably more talking than trading
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #53,380
  • Edited 1:27am Mar 4, 2020 12:52am | Edited 1:27am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i am expecting for ESF and other stock markets to go up more. to form a resistance and than down. EUR should fall on this drop after that trading should be harder with much manipulation. so again trying to reduce position as light as i can be. at least until VIX goes down below 20 Until then probably more talking than trading
need a clean lc below 1147.6 to start. Then next one below at 1001. 1001 needs a friday close below. Some support 1148 area, R 1213/14. dollar was king after july 4 2008. the swap was heavily on the euro's side, yet the eu dropped like a rock for months straight. I had that in mind in February. Something is off in pa. Yesterday I learned the repo demand was very high. The fed was doing these secret deals in 2007 and 2008 before the drop. Some bank somewhere is in trouble. The repo not being a enough is a lack of liquidity warning.

Whenever something like this happens. It's on the Feds balance sheet. For instance if a private bank in Germany is in trouble ( lack of usd/liquidity/money market/ to buy oil or something). It will ask it's CB to borrow from the Fed. The Fed will loan it to the German (ECB) at prefered rates. Then the ecb will loan it to the private german bank. It's kind of hidden from the public. If you know who got the money. You can figure out who is in trouble.

In the NZ example, its may have gone to a uk bank. uk being a member at the time of the ez. It could later go to a german bank. Since money is spongeable, it may have kept a bank from crashing.

I broke it down once. I did the sheep to man calculation. There is lots more sheep in nz than men. I forgot the figure. Lets say it was 333$ per sheep in NZ. Let me search for it. Definitely more $ than one would think NZ could use.

Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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