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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #1,021
  • Feb 27, 2020 12:58am Feb 27, 2020 12:58am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} yeah that is very easy ... once you go to the site i mentioned before . DO a Ctrl F to find the asset you need and you will get some thing like this ... suppose you are searching for GBP.. you only need non-commercial data and it's all mentioned in the report, the long contracts, short contracts, open interest etc...
Very interesting insights. If I visit the link, the data is from 18th of February, is there any way to get this information with a newer date? Or is that because of the expiration date of the future contracts?

I am interested in currencies, is chicago the place to be, regarding volume? Or can you recommend any other marketplaces?

Thank you!
  • #1,022
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:01am Feb 27, 2020 1:01am
alternatively for relative strength, you can also check https://finviz.com/forex_performance.ashx?v=1. click on quarterly performance to get a clearer picture of recent strength.
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  • #1,023
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:08am Feb 27, 2020 1:08am
Quoting thj79
{quote} Very interesting insights. If I visit the link, the data is from 18th of February, is there any way to get this information with a newer date? Or is that because of the expiration date of the future contracts? I am interested in currencies, is chicago the place to be, regarding volume? Or can you recommend any other marketplaces? Thank you!
yes the data is from 18th coz Tuesdays are the days they(huge reportable traders) submit the report to CFTC and it is published only every friday after market close. On Monday morning there are some gaps in the market due to this. There is no newer data available. This Friday (28th Feb) they will publish data for 25th Feb.
Yes Chicago Mercantile exchange short format reports for legacy.
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  • #1,024
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:25am Feb 27, 2020 1:25am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Hi Isensefx, thank you for dropping by. although this is not a holy grail that traders are searching for (if there is one ) .. but might come a close second. We puny guys have to follow the big traders as they move the market and who understands fundamental analysis better than the banks and hedge funds.. the only thing is that we have to keep our positions small. i am not using a hard stop loss as we can see reversals through COT analysis. The supply and demand zones in my chart are daily and weekly. I use the indicator attached below...
Hello Sir,

Can you pls give a concise explanation of the color codes on the supply and demand indicator? I see that there are many types of color!

Thanks.

Regards
  • #1,025
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:30am Feb 27, 2020 1:30am
Quoting Isensefx
{quote} Hello Sir, Can you pls give a concise explanation of the color codes on the supply and demand indicator? I see that there are many types of color! Thanks. Regards
If you open the indicator and scroll down on the input tab, every color code is mentioned there but since you asked here it is ..

Strong support : BROWN
weak support : yellow
retouching support : dark green
strong demand : blue
weak demand : hot pink
demand retouching : dim gray
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  • #1,026
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:41am Feb 27, 2020 1:41am
gold has been in a bull market for very long and it has touched a supply line from way back (more than 5 years), so i am expecting it drop considerably to at least the next demand level. but before jumping the gun, we will wait for the next cot report on Friday and hopefully the big traders would have reduced their long positions and increased their short position. Besides all this, the long % is almost 90%, so they need some cooling off and get retail traders to commit more before they pull the rug under your feet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #1,027
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:46am Feb 27, 2020 1:46am
gold fib levels of recent count. (daily bars)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold1.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #1,028
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:51am Feb 27, 2020 1:51am
potential retracement to at least 38.2% and it could also overshoot to the next demand level as shown in the chart before the next upmove. I wouldn't sell in this extremely bullish market but wait for this market to come down and with the help of COT report buy low with small positions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 2.png Size: 24 KB
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  • #1,029
  • Feb 27, 2020 2:39am Feb 27, 2020 2:39am
@Stringfx pls how do you explain the report between USD and YEN. USD is net long and Yen is net short but it has been selling since 20th till this day.

My thought is that it will continue to long for the next few weeks as you said.

Also, when you check GBP against CHF, GBP is net long and CHF is net neutral but GBPCHF is seriously selling. What is the interpretation of this.

Thanks.

Regards,

Kingsley (Isensefx)
  • #1,030
  • Feb 27, 2020 3:18am Feb 27, 2020 3:18am
Quoting Isensefx
@Stringfx pls how do you explain the report between USD and YEN. USD is net long and Yen is net short but it has been selling since 20th till this day. My thought is that it will continue to long for the next few weeks as you said. Also, when you check GBP against CHF, GBP is net long and CHF is net neutral but GBPCHF is seriously selling. What is the interpretation of this. Thanks. Regards, Kingsley (Isensefx)
Net long does not mean there will not be corrections. The market does not go in a straight line.The big traders need to coax the retail traders to join in , so they will bring the markets down and then when everybody's on board, they will take it up...

anyway if you check the cot net position from from 11th and 18th which i posted earlier... posting it again here ..

on the 11th net position ... US$ was temp long and net long and yen was temp short and net short. so from 11th to 18 was a bull market for usd/jpy.
but from 18th US$ was temp short and net long, so temporarily us$ was going down. here we will not trade this pair coz of the discrepancy.
If you notice it was not a preferred pair to trade in my summary.

when a currency is at neutral position do not trade it as it can go any ways.. also please look at daily charts not hourly. GBP/CHF has been in a bull trend for a long time (from Aug 2019 to mid December 2019) . it's correcting now.

The preferred pairs to trade are the ones which are temporary and long time (short or long)


Hope you got something from this ...
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx COT NET POSITION.xlsx   12 KB | 287 downloads
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  • #1,031
  • Feb 27, 2020 3:21am Feb 27, 2020 3:21am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.png Size: 47 KB
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  • #1,032
  • Feb 27, 2020 3:27am Feb 27, 2020 3:27am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.png Size: 40 KB
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  • #1,033
  • Feb 27, 2020 4:45am Feb 27, 2020 4:45am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Net long does not mean there will not be corrections. The market does not go in a straight line.The big traders need to coax the retail traders to join in , so they will bring the markets down and then when everybody's on board, they will take it up... anyway if you check the cot net position from from 11th and 18th which i posted earlier... posting it again here .. on the 11th net position ... US$ was temp long and net long and yen was temp short and net short. so from 11th to 18 was a bull market for usd/jpy. but from 18th US$ was temp...
Thank you, Sir for the information. Don't you think that the chart to consider is either the hourly chart or the 4 hour chart since the COT data comes out every week?
  • #1,034
  • Feb 27, 2020 5:07am Feb 27, 2020 5:07am
Quoting Isensefx
{quote} Thank you, Sir for the information. Don't you think that the chart to consider is either the hourly chart or the 4 hour chart since the COT data comes out every week?

Hourly charts will only give you very recent moves. COT data analysis runs for weeks and months and during that time there will be many dips and rallys which i will cover with elliott wave and fibonacci but with hourly chart anyone can get confused like you did with usd/jpy. so look at the bigger picture always.
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  • #1,035
  • Feb 28, 2020 10:56pm Feb 28, 2020 10:56pm
Cot data was published yesterday and here is my take on it. Posting last week and this week's analysis. Try comparing it and make decisions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cot analysis 29.2.png Size: 51 KB
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  • #1,036
  • Feb 28, 2020 11:02pm Feb 28, 2020 11:02pm
based on the previous report here is a summary of the analysis to which i will be trading this week. Good luck to all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: summary.png Size: 14 KB
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  • #1,037
  • Feb 29, 2020 2:34am Feb 29, 2020 2:34am
EW on gold daily ...

five waves up seems to have completed and 2nd wave retracement going on... a wave might finish with a gap down on Monday. then we wait for wave b and finish with a wave c down to 50% of the move. Once retracement completes, we can expect a massive bull run.. here is a chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold daily.png Size: 43 KB
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  • #1,038
  • Feb 29, 2020 4:36am Feb 29, 2020 4:36am
The cot report states that the institutional traders are very short on the yen. So the strongest currencies are GBP and CAD. Here is an EW chart of daily GBP/JPY.
Trade with caution on Monday as there can be some gaps. wait until European session .

The demand zone is a lot lower and since the pair has already finished 5 waves to the top and the current correction down could be a 2nd wave which can go to the said demand zone as well. Trade small and add to positions later on. Usually 50% is good enough and reversal should resume from a maximum of 61.8 but you can never be that sure... Here is a chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy daily.png Size: 23 KB
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  • #1,039
  • Feb 29, 2020 4:47am Feb 29, 2020 4:47am
cadjpy is same thing as gbpjpy but in this case the demand zone is already met and price has turned up, so possibility of a gap down to 23.6 and then very bullish . careful trading on Mondays until EU session.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy daily.png Size: 56 KB
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  • #1,040
  • Feb 29, 2020 9:01am Feb 29, 2020 9:01am
Since the institutional traders are net short on Yen and US is net long ... here is a chart of USDJPY daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY DAILY.png Size: 33 KB
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