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Failure in Forex is a certainty! Prove me otherwise...

  • #21
  • Feb 23, 2020 2:29am Feb 23, 2020 2:29am
Quoting MattZander
{quote} I try to understand you. I think what you need is mentor or someone who have successful background that can explain you in the way your logic can accept it. Am I correct? But he need to prove you first that you were wrong in real account and tell you how market behave. I was thinking the same this way 5 years ago.
Wrong. Actually I kind of already have a mentor, and he's worked on the brokerage side of things, so I have the know-how from both the retailers and brokerage's perspective. I also know he's the real deal because he supplied me with a tool, NOT a disgusting useless indicator, but a tool that is independent of time, volume and charts which I'll be talking about once this thread gets nice and juicy!
  • #22
  • Feb 23, 2020 2:40am Feb 23, 2020 2:40am
Quoting guttsman007
{quote} Wrong. Actually I kind of already have a mentor, and he's worked on the brokerage side of things, so I have the know-how from both the retailers and brokerage's perspective. I also know he's the real deal because he supplied me with a tool, NOT a disgusting useless indicator, but a tool that is independent of time, volume and charts which I'll be talking about once this thread gets nice and juicy!
Yes, you already got the final answer then.
I'm glad for you.
I do not recommend anything, please blame me not. Thanks
  • #23
  • Feb 26, 2020 5:40pm Feb 26, 2020 5:40pm
Failure is certain for everything. I personally keep in mind that failure is usually temporary and is an opportunity to learn. Like Edison said, "I have not failed, I just found 10,000 ways that don't work".
  • #24
  • Feb 26, 2020 11:09pm Feb 26, 2020 11:09pm
Quoting ancat
Failure is certain for everything. I personally keep in mind that failure is usually temporary and is an opportunity to learn. Like Edison said, "I have not failed, I just found 10,000 ways that don't work".
No there is no "learning" here. You'll fail in forex because you'll fail, and once you've failed you'll continue to fail some more. Prove me otherwise as the thread goes.
  • #25
  • Feb 26, 2020 11:18pm Feb 26, 2020 11:18pm
Quoting guttsman007
{quote} Wrong. Actually I kind of already have a mentor, and he's worked on the brokerage side of things, so I have the know-how from both the retailers and brokerage's perspective. I also know he's the real deal because he supplied me with a tool, NOT a disgusting useless indicator, but a tool that is independent of time, volume and charts which I'll be talking about once this thread gets nice and juicy!
I would rather we stay on topic.
Failure in retail forex trading is indeed a certainty, no matter what tool is used ...
  • #26
  • Edited 11:38pm Feb 26, 2020 11:22pm | Edited 11:38pm
Indeed. Seems like no matter how much information a retailer can obtain, even if it's normally out of reach, there just isn't any edge for retailers. Best to go swing equities altogether. Forex is for the wishful thinking, the optimists, the arrogant, for the greedy who plan to turn $0.000001 into trillions. How naive you traders, you think you can actually beat the market with your dinky little charts? The same charts being the result of orderflow? Not to mention the institutions and professionals can make the market entice you into a trade you don't wanna be in? And you still think you can beat the market with that? Don't make me laugh. Still waiting on someone to prove to me failure in forex is impossible.
  • #27
  • Feb 27, 2020 12:58am Feb 27, 2020 12:58am
Quoting guttsman007
{quote} No there is no "learning" here. You'll fail in forex because you'll fail, and once you've failed you'll continue to fail some more. Prove me otherwise as the thread goes.
I'm afraid you've missed the whole point of my reply and are looking for attention with a combative approach rather than a good healthy mental spar. There's also no way to "prove" anything here if you yourself aren't clearly defining your argument with context or evidence.
  • #28
  • Feb 27, 2020 3:48pm Feb 27, 2020 3:48pm
Quoting ancat
{quote} I'm afraid you've missed the whole point of my reply and are looking for attention with a combative approach rather than a good healthy mental spar. There's also no way to "prove" anything here if you yourself aren't clearly defining your argument with context or evidence.
Hope you read the very first post as to WHY I made this thread, which is a response to the ridiculous titled thread "Forex is easy! Prove me otherwise....", OP didn't prove anything in his thread yet people think it's an okay thread. My thread is the inverse of that. This is more of a challenge so I'm not gonna lay down any evidence(yet) until this thread goes along. Obviously this thread is just over a week old so I'm not expecting anything magical to happen. But what I do want is for someone to make an argument on behalf of "Success + Forex", something along those lines, define what success means, then prove it.
  • #29
  • Feb 27, 2020 4:44pm Feb 27, 2020 4:44pm
Institutional traders and investment banks are proof that you can make money trading forex. The problem is that retail traders do not know how to trade properly and that is why almost all retail traders lose money long term.
  • #30
  • Feb 27, 2020 5:12pm Feb 27, 2020 5:12pm
You cannot beat the market. Nor does the Market win or lose... the market is an expression of trades to the upside/Downside/flat.
It's a series of trades. And the trades are expectations of individual traders.

Therefore you cannot beat the market

However you can make money trading in the market, just like you can lose in the market.

If you are truly good at trading, you can make money
  • #31
  • Feb 27, 2020 5:27pm Feb 27, 2020 5:27pm
Quoting viptrading
Institutional traders and investment banks are proof that you can make money trading forex. The problem is that retail traders do not know how to trade properly and that is why almost all retail traders lose money long term.
I should've titled this Failure in Retail Forex is a certainty. Yes inst. traders and investment banks are wide-a$$ proof you can make money. On the retailers end, not so much. Problem with retail trading stems from what people call "technical analysis", there's no right or wrong answer, it works and it doesn't work. What does that mean? It's unreliable. As Matt Dillahunty would say in regards to faith, applying it in forex trading of course, if technical analysis can give you both a right and wrong viewpoint of the market, isn't that thing you call "technical analysis" thus a unreliable pathway to truth?
  • #32
  • Feb 27, 2020 5:30pm Feb 27, 2020 5:30pm
Quoting Nolo
You cannot beat the market. Nor does the Market win or lose... the market is an expression of trades to the upside/Downside/flat. It's a series of trades. And the trades are expectations of individual traders. Therefore you cannot beat the market However you can make money trading in the market, just like you can lose in the market. If you are truly good at trading, you can make money
I don't recall saying anything about "beating" the market. What I did really mean to say is profiting from "retail" forex trading is absolutely futile unless proven otherwise. Your quote "If you are truly good at trading, you can make money" is an assertion, not a fact.
  • #33
  • Feb 27, 2020 5:38pm Feb 27, 2020 5:38pm
Quoting guttsman007
{quote} I should've titled this Failure in Retail Forex is a certainty. Yes inst. traders and investment banks are wide-a$$ proof you can make money. On the retailers end, not so much. Problem with retail trading stems from what people call "technical analysis", there's no right or wrong answer, it works and it doesn't work. What does that mean? It's unreliable. As Matt Dillahunty would say in regards to faith, applying it in forex trading of course, if technical analysis can give you both a right and wrong viewpoint of the market, isn't that thing...
Failure in retail is also not a "certainty" its just a highly likely outcome. Since roughly 90% of traders lose their invested capital that still leaves 10% who do manage to profit, out of those 10% many may move on to eventually get to the institutional level.

So, that kind of disproves what you are saying, unless you didn't really mean that failure was a certainty by definition.
  • #34
  • Feb 27, 2020 5:46pm Feb 27, 2020 5:46pm
Quoting viptrading
{quote} Failure in retail is also not a "certainty" its just a highly likely outcome. Since roughly 90% of traders lose their invested capital that still leaves 10% who do manage to profit, out of those 10% many may move on to eventually get to the institutional level. So, that kind of disproves what you are saying, unless you didn't really mean that failure was a certainty by definition.
Well the 90-95% figure has been thrown around for ages. If we take 95% for face value and round it we get 100 but you're right, the majority do indeed lose and that's referring to the retailer's end. Institutions such as banks, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, mega corps, what have you also carry some risk but they're better informed. Because they're dealing with such high volume, their trades don't go through a "broker", it goes directly through a bank. The bank's job is to make the market and manage clients' orders. Do banks have an edge on the market versus us small fish? Yes. It's called ping orders and iceberg orders. What's bad about these is unlike on a centralized exchange where you can see them, there's no such detail to visibly see in forex since it's an OTC exchange. Brokers also have an advantage over us small fish. How? Price shading. Since brokers are connected to their liquidity source, they get to see the feed before we do. If that feed also includes some form of orderflow behind it, brokers will price shade once they know the market is about to go one direction and the majority of the sheeple traders are trading the opposite, thus widening spread, thus costing retailers more money to enter into a worst losing position possible so we get stopped out.
  • #35
  • Feb 27, 2020 5:52pm Feb 27, 2020 5:52pm
To all traders, if you don't think icebergs, spoofing, pinging and price shading happens in the forex market, as Anton Kreil would put it, you've got your head up your a$$.
  • #36
  • Feb 27, 2020 6:01pm Feb 27, 2020 6:01pm
Quoting guttsman007
{quote} Well the 90-95% figure has been thrown around for ages. If we take 95% for face value and round it we get 100 but you're right, the majority do indeed lose and that's referring to the retailer's end. Institutions such as banks, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, mega corps, what have you also carry some risk but they're better informed. Because they're dealing with such high volume, their trades don't go through a "broker", it goes directly through a bank. The bank's job is to make the market and manage clients' orders. Do...
If you look at short term it's actually much closer to around 80% or potentially lower than that who lose money. The problem is that overtime the number gets higher. I would say the actual figure is probably closer to .01% or maybe less of traders actually make it to the institutional level. And, even then the ones who keep at it long term are small. The problem at that level becomes whether traders who have made x amount of money want to even continue doing it. Trading is boring. After 5-10 years of making millions you may want to move on to something else, and many do.

At the retail level the problem is that most do not get the proper education or tools they need in order to succeed, and even the ones who do usually are not smart enough, or risk adverse enough to make it.

Even with all that said though, becoming profitable long term trading Forex, or stocks, or anything is not impossible or guaranteed 1000% failure. It's just really, really hard, and unlikely, unless you really want it really bad and are smart enough to do it. By smart I do not mean in the general sense, because there are a lot of smart people who cannot trade. It's really more of a talent and love that you need to have for financial markets in general. If you do not have that you will not succeed.
  • #37
  • Feb 27, 2020 7:36pm Feb 27, 2020 7:36pm
Quoting guttsman007
{quote} I don't recall saying anything about "beating" the market. What I did really mean to say is profiting from "retail" forex trading is absolutely futile unless proven otherwise. Your quote "If you are truly good at trading, you can make money" is an assertion, not a fact.
I think you may need to define you statement of "profiting".... because in your futile... if I make one dollar from forex, then I just proved it.

What I think you mean is to be profitable long term with low drawdown. Is this correct?
  • #38
  • Feb 27, 2020 8:02pm Feb 27, 2020 8:02pm
Quoting Nolo
{quote} I think you may need to define you statement of "profiting".... because in your futile... if I make one dollar from forex, then I just proved it. What I think you mean is to be profitable long term with low drawdown. Is this correct?
Yeah I think it's time I get to definitions. What you propose is correct. For me "profiting" would need to be 100% or more within 1 year's time or less. If you can't turn $100 into $200 within that timeframe, gtfo. If your account size is massive, we're talking in the hundreds of thousands at least, then even a constant profit of 10-15% a month is within reason. That would cement whether or not it can be done or all the claims out here are just hogwash. Oh let's hear the comments now saying, "Oh, you expect too much, I only aim for 1% a day/month/year etc or you're gambling." Let's roll.
  • #39
  • Feb 27, 2020 8:22pm Feb 27, 2020 8:22pm
Don't you think doubling your acct every year is a little far fetched... I mean if Warren Buffet averages 20% per year what makes you think that some one can double their acct every year.

If someone could do that reliably, they would be a billionaire... people would be coming out of the wood work to you.

Just wondering.
  • #40
  • Feb 27, 2020 8:28pm Feb 27, 2020 8:28pm
You really need to change the title of this thread if you want to make it clear.

Profit is profit. Imo if you can beat the interest a bank would pay you then you are a profitable trader.

Also, it depends how much work you have to put in etc how many hours per day, if you are a full time trader or more of an investor who trades once in a blue moon and looks for long term trades via weekly or monthly charts.

It is all very relative.

You can't just set your own parameters to what you consider a profitable trader to be, that is just illogical.

100% in a year is VERY hard to do consistently for anyone, even if you only have 100$ to start with. Emotions, drawdowns, and portfolio management make that very hard to do.

Imo this is why retail traders lose, they have unrealistic expectations, and they start with tiny accounts working hours a day to make 100% on a small amount of capital. This is why they blow it all up in the end.

A successful trader is someone who can live from their trading profits. Depending on what country you live in your account size may need to be anywhere from 10k to 1 million. It really isn't as simple as putting everyone in the same category.
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