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GBP H4 Breakout

  • #21
  • Feb 23, 2020 4:25am Feb 23, 2020 4:25am
Hi flashpaul. First many thanks for this inspiring stuff. Realy liking it.

Since the update in post 18 we are using a range max of 80 pips?

Regards.
Klausi
Stick to the plan!
  • #22
  • Feb 23, 2020 6:29am Feb 23, 2020 6:29am
Here's a thought........maybe you can decrease your maximum range from 60 down to around 40-45 ( just throwing out a number). You will limit your entries but you will probably have a better chance of making your TP. The ADR for GU for example is around 80-90 pips. If you have a max range of 60, that only leaves you 20-30 pips before that pair reaches it's ADR, and that is IF it reaches 100% ADR for that day. A true breakout strategy is one that waits for a pair to consolidate (coil) and then "breaks out". I would also use a different min/max range according to which pair you trade and the ADR20.
  • #23
  • Feb 23, 2020 7:04am Feb 23, 2020 7:04am
Quoting Klausi
Hi flashpaul. First many thanks for this inspiring stuff. Really liking it. Since the update in post 18, we are using a range max of 80 pips? Regards. Klausi
80 pips are the preset value of the indicator. It is a very high value, but sometimes GBPJPY is able to continue its run equally breaking the level. This is why I set a prudent TP limit of 20 pips for one trade.

It is obvious that SL can´t be 80 pips. We can set a SL of 40 pips.

But when we are in such an extreme situation the reading of candles patterns on H1 may help to make the right decision. But this is an issue that I want to front later.

20 pips are all we need to earn. The rest is a bonus.
  • #24
  • Feb 23, 2020 7:35am Feb 23, 2020 7:35am
Hi flashpaul!!! Thank you - for your work! Subscription!
Why did you refuse to test GBPUSD?
Forgive for my English!
  • #25
  • Feb 23, 2020 8:03am Feb 23, 2020 8:03am
Quoting bojack34
Here's a thought........maybe you can decrease your maximum range from 60 down to around 40-45 ( just throwing out a number). You will limit your entries but you will probably have a better chance of making your TP. The ADR for GU for example is around 80-90 pips. If you have a max range of 60, that only leaves you 20-30 pips before that pair reaches it's ADR, and that is IF it reaches 100% ADR for that day. A true breakout strategy is one that waits for a pair to consolidate (coil) and then "breaks out". I would also use a different min/max range...
I am in accord with you. The less is volatility in one moment, more explosive is the volatility after and can break the levels. In this way, doji candles can anticipate volatility. Maybe not in the following candle, but someone after.

To determine the best range is pretty difficult. If it is too tight, it can take the SL quickly. It is too large, it can´t open a trade, or to break and come back hitting a SL.

The high and the low are resistance and support on which we have to see what is happening. Are points of reference.

My strategy is similar to chess in which we must accept some lost and after to recover the ground.

For recovering the losses we have to ways:

- To set 20 pips fixed of TP and SL. If you do lose, recover with martingale. For example, one day you lose 20 with 0.05 lots. The next day you will plan the trade always with 20 pips fixed of TP and SL with 0.1 lots; the third day with 0.20 lots and so on. Because gbpjpy has high volatility it is not difficult to close in gain before or after. Vantages: it is a simple way to trade, just for whom has no time and patience to follow the trade but, you can apply it on more than one pair, but... as any grid and martingale method it needs prudent money management.

Second way: more complicate, needs more time, needs to look at the computer one time each hour pointing the clock, to look at M30 and m15 but is more interesting and gives you more mastery and control of the situation and more satisfaction: to look at inversion candle patterns.

In one trade of last week, I did enter a buy trade. The price came back down. Closed the trade at breakeven. I have seen that it was not an inversion, but a retracement. The price inverted again and started his rally. I did enter buy again and closed in gain. In the attachment the chart of my trade.

In this second way of trading, if we are losing money, we have to investigate what is happening, to accept the loss, to enter again at the new occasion.

As usual, any suggestion is welcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP 2.png Size: 110 KB
  • #26
  • Feb 23, 2020 8:10am Feb 23, 2020 8:10am
[quote = Romiros; 12769984] Ciao flashpaul !!! Grazie per il tuo lavoro! Sottoscrizione! Perché hai rifiutato di testare GBPUSD? [/ Quote]

In my personal opinion, and after manual backtesting, GBPJPY gives more good opportunities to close in gain.

GBPUSD is more quite and needs more accompaniment in the trades.

But, please, be free to trade whatever pair you like. My strategy is not a rigid system. The important is to feel comfortable with your self and...to gain!
  • #27
  • Feb 23, 2020 8:40am Feb 23, 2020 8:40am
flashpaul Will it make it easy for you to share a risk indicator?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_5.png Size: 32 KB
Forgive for my English!
  • #28
  • Feb 23, 2020 8:43am Feb 23, 2020 8:43am
[quote = Romiros; 12770030] flashpaul Semplifica la condivisione di un indicatore di rischio? {image} [/ quote]

The indicator is in the first post.
  • #29
  • Feb 24, 2020 4:10am Feb 24, 2020 4:10am
Today unexpected great fall GBPYPY. Range too wide, more than 80 pips. No trade.

Please open set 3 Tier London Breakout indicator in the graphic M15 and set time 08:00 - 12:00
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP 24 2 20.png Size: 133 KB
  • #30
  • Feb 24, 2020 9:46am Feb 24, 2020 9:46am
I have seen this system, generally it is a hot topic. Looking at the past looks good, but the interest rate transaction is a bit nervous
  • #31
  • Feb 24, 2020 10:03am Feb 24, 2020 10:03am
Hi there..
I think for us to talk about this system correctly we should first define the breakout period precisely. Instead of setting it up by platform time would you clarify the time of the period by GMT 0 so we would understand better of the logic behind it. As far as I am concerned right now it is more of NY breakout than London breakout.
As for the strategy it looks good simple strategy so all we need is to complicate it with money managent parametres to optimise
  • #32
  • Feb 24, 2020 11:18pm Feb 24, 2020 11:18pm
Will definitely try it. Thanks and
Regards
  • #33
  • Feb 25, 2020 3:04am Feb 25, 2020 3:04am
Quoting Kxeroo
Hi there.. I think for us to talk about this system correctly we should first define the breakout period precisely. Instead of setting it up by platform time would you clarify the time of the period by GMT 0 so we would understand better of the logic behind it. As far as I am concerned right now it is more of NY breakout than London breakout. As for the strategy it looks good simple strategy so all we need is to complicate it with money managent parametres to optimise

Hi Kxeroo. I think its 6.00-10.00 GMT. Basicaly two 4H candles after FX market open. Some brokers have different 4H candles so i think this is important. Forgive me if im wrong. Can be confusing. I use IC markets, they open when the markets open. They are GMT+2 at the moment. So my timerange is 8-12 servertime or 7-11 German time.

Hope it helps.

Regards,
Klausi
Stick to the plan!
  • #34
  • Edited 4:36am Feb 25, 2020 4:24am | Edited 4:36am
Ciao a tutti Mi dispiace rispondere solo ora. Ieri ho dovuto uscire e non ho potuto aprire alcun commercio.
Mi sento responsabile di questo thread e so che qui ci sono alcuni trader esperti ai quali chiedo scusa se parlo di trading di base.

Ho letto che ci sono alcune domande sul tempo.
Ogni operatore ha il proprio broker e la propria piattaforma.
Parlo sempre della candela che si apre alle 08:00 e termina alle 11:59:59 nel tuo broker.

Ora vediamo cosa è successo ieri 24/02/2020.

GBPJPY ha fatto più di 80 pips in quel momento. La mia strategia parla di aprire una vendita al minimo e un acquisto al massimo.
Posso vendere, ma se, dopo una lunga caduta, ritorna e corre? Colpirà uno stop loss. Cosa fare?

In M15 il prezzo ha un grande casino a basso livello. Impossibile capire cosa vuole fare.

Quando è impossibile capire dove va il prezzo, aspettiamo e diamo un'occhiata in un arco di tempo maggiore che riprenda ciò che sta accadendo e possa dare segnali più chiari. The problem is to have patience and to wait H1 candle forms.

Nell'allegato, ti mostrerò cosa intendo.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP 1.png Size: 124 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP 2.png Size: 127 KB
  • #35
  • Feb 25, 2020 4:51am Feb 25, 2020 4:51am
Quoting flashpaul
Ciao a tutti Mi dispiace rispondere solo ora. Ieri ho dovuto uscire e non ho potuto aprire alcun commercio. Mi sento responsabile di questo thread e so che qui ci sono alcuni trader esperti ai quali chiedo scusa se parlo di trading di base. Ho letto che ci sono alcune domande sul tempo. Ogni operatore ha il proprio broker e la propria piattaforma. Parlo sempre della candela che si apre alle 08:00 e termina alle 11:59:59 nel tuo broker. Ora vediamo cosa è successo ieri 24/02/2020. GBPJPY ha fatto più di 80 pips in quel momento. La mia strategia parla...
Vedo il tuo profilo come il Brasile ma parli italiano?
Gone to a better place
  • #36
  • Feb 25, 2020 5:07am Feb 25, 2020 5:07am
English, please
Patience and Discipline.
  • #37
  • Feb 25, 2020 5:13am Feb 25, 2020 5:13am
[quote = smikester; 12773765] {quote} Vedo il tuo profilo come il Brasile ma parli italiano? [/ quote]
Yes. Italian, English, Português.
  • #38
  • Feb 25, 2020 7:16am Feb 25, 2020 7:16am
Quoting Klausi
{quote} Hi Kxeroo. I think its 6.00-10.00 GMT. Basicaly two 4H candles after FX market open. Some brokers have different 4H candles so i think this is important. Forgive me if im wrong. Can be confusing. I use IC markets, they open when the markets open. They are GMT+2 at the moment. So my timerange is 8-12 servertime or 7-11 German time. Hope it helps. Regards, Klausi

Cheers mate. That helps a lot.
  • #39
  • Feb 25, 2020 11:07am Feb 25, 2020 11:07am
Today 25/02/2020

The pair GBPJPY did had run sideways. It has not broked the range of the H4 candle.
It has picked the buy level but after it has come back hitten the stop loss.
Let´s how was possible to manage this situation in the attachment.
Trading is not easy. But also not so difficult. Needs patience, punctuality, and eye.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP.png Size: 119 KB
  • #40
  • Feb 25, 2020 3:13pm Feb 25, 2020 3:13pm
At the end of the day, let´s give a look to other pairs with GBP about what has happened at 12:00. It is an exercise on patterns inversion, double low or double high on levels, always on H1.
Some example is easy; others more difficult. But look at how if one pair gives a good signal, other pairs may follow the same way.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP CAD 25 2.png Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD 25 02.png Size: 106 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD 25 02.png Size: 109 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 25 02.png Size: 109 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHF 25 02.png Size: 106 KB
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