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The Swamp

  • #52,321
  • Feb 22, 2020 8:57pm Feb 22, 2020 8:57pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} eu bullish to me. I think this could be it for the bears for a long while. {image}
sure, but its mostly made off the past. The euro went to 1.6 off the belief the ez would never break up. One of the biggest ez trading partners has gone (UK).
Now China is locked down. In the near future, those luxury items bought from China/Asia customers is slowing. Such as beamers etc. If one is locked down from traveling to ones job. That leaves less $ to buy luxury stuff from the Ez. Less $ to buy ez cheeses, wine, travel, etc. When a country has a 2% economy. It dont take much trade cut to make that number negative. Its not just China/Asia affected. Australia relies on Asia for 71 % of its trade. Considering its economy size. It dont take much to shave a few points off. It dont take much to shave a point or 2 off the world economy. Everything is interconnected. If the world slows traveling, we all will feel it. Those Boeing jets are already hurting. Caterpillar is in line to tack a dump. Oil and so forth will take a hit.. Too many scenarios to think about. Did I mention GB markets weighted in oil related industry? Such as BP. WE wrap all the crap we buy in oil based plastic. Those jets run on kerosine (jet fuel). Baltic dry shipping is hurting. That will hurt Southern Europe. What about Russia's oil economy and the Middle East. Its all connected.

Less oil $ means less BMW demand. The eurozone economy today. Is not as safe as a chart, even 1 month ago appears. I'm not saying the sky is falling. I'm saying a cat 5 hurricane is on the radar. Its heading for us all. The ez is not as safe as it was. None of us are. Lets pray the hurricane dies before reaching the shore. If it does, we still should expect some rain and winds. Its coming whether we are ready or not. Wishful thinking is not going to stop this. Nobody but a fool can say what will happen with certainty. We haven't had a economy like this ever before. And we haven't had a pandemic to test us. I hope it dont this time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #52,322
  • Feb 22, 2020 9:01pm Feb 22, 2020 9:01pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} eg same view. it all fits. gu bearish, eu bullish, eg bullish. eg could be a DB. doesn't have to get below 8276 now even if below then could bounce from 8129. not much below. i suspect not because after 5 waves down over a period of 90 some days should be a better correction then we got till now. Corrections should take longer. i will narrow the pairs i trade down to those 3. It takes up too much of my time to figure out more then 3 pairs. Also quality over quantity.
EJ bullish too.....although more to do with JPY than EUR and I'm only looking short term to retest 122.60
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #52,323
  • Feb 22, 2020 9:36pm Feb 22, 2020 9:36pm
BMW, 36.4% goes to Asia. Add whats sold in oil related countries like the U.S., Russia and so forth. GB is oil weighted, plus now is no longer a trading partner. A slow in the oil economy would undeniably hurt (BMW), (Airbus) tourism, EZ. Germany attributes 14% of its economy to car manufacturing (producing 5 million cars, Including VW, and luxury Mercedes ). Any slowing in China will hurt EZ to a greater degree than the U.S. The first thing to slow will be luxury high dollar sales. Such as luxury cars. Cheap Booze sales will climb worldwide.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/201..._137736973.htm
https://www.thelocal.de/20150924/wha...rmanys-economy
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #52,324
  • Feb 22, 2020 9:56pm Feb 22, 2020 9:56pm
August last year PriceWaterCoopers released a paper showing that a decline in gdp growth in China of just 3% would result in a decline of international income to Australia of 7% and would result in job losses of 550,000. Since then Australia's reliance on China has grown, particularly in education of Chinese students in Australia.
In total, international education contributed 37.6 billion Australian dollars (US$25 billion) to the Australian economy in the 2018-2019 financial year. In the US, Chinese students contributed $14.9 billion to the US economy in 2018
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #52,325
  • Feb 22, 2020 10:03pm Feb 22, 2020 10:03pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #52,326
  • Feb 22, 2020 10:20pm Feb 22, 2020 10:20pm
this chart looks a little bearish to me...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #52,327
  • Feb 22, 2020 11:02pm Feb 22, 2020 11:02pm
Quoting axecap
{image}
lets not forget.. The Spanish virus started in the U.S. in 1918. It was deadly to many early on. It went all around the world, then came back to the U.S. The second time it had mutated. The second strand was far more deadly. It killed the young strong 20 year olds as well as the old. You can have the first systems in the morning, and be dead that night. This virus can mutate to other stands and methods of transmission. Such as other mammals or birds. The other mammals/birds may be healthy. The virus may not affect them. It may just be deadly to humans.

On another possibly related subject. Dead animals of all kinds are reported in China's preserve parks. Nothing conclusive (suspected disinfectants ), but a high rate of different unrelated species. Are being found dead. It seems odd.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #52,328
  • Feb 22, 2020 11:08pm Feb 22, 2020 11:08pm
here... they claim its the disinfects used. Make of it what you want. If the disinfects diluted runoffs are killing animals. What is the full strength doing to the people. https://www.businessinsider.com/disi...s-china-2020-2
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #52,329
  • Feb 22, 2020 11:11pm Feb 22, 2020 11:11pm
Quoting axecap
{image}
71% is Asia.. That's why I short Aud. That hawkish Aud central bank is in Never-Never land.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #52,330
  • Feb 22, 2020 11:25pm Feb 22, 2020 11:25pm
Origin of the virus is being speculated to, a market selling live and dead animals. The twitter conspiracy for, "the tin foil hat crowd". Is a Chinese germ lab released it.

Could it be as simple as melting snow. Releasing a 100,000 year old infected dead animal carcass. And the pathogen possible entering a mountain stream, then a river. A river animals drink from, a river people eat fish from. Or a dog, bird or wild boar eating the dead carcass. And the virus spreading to humans from there. We may never know.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #52,331
  • Feb 22, 2020 11:45pm Feb 22, 2020 11:45pm
these were posted long before this recent flu. estimated 50/100 million died
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #52,332
  • Feb 23, 2020 12:20am Feb 23, 2020 12:20am
Thinking a bearish week is in store for E/U or up and then return back to the opening. With the weekly low of 9/29 being broken 2 weeks ago we should see 1.069xx area at somepoint. Just my thoughts.
Motivation comes from within
  • #52,333
  • Feb 23, 2020 12:56am Feb 23, 2020 12:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 71% is Asia.. That's why I short Aud. That hawkish Aud central bank is in Never-Never land. {image}
absolutely agree.....audjpy could have wtf moment and i have a short there just in case....but jpy not in great shape either so that leaves audusd. 0.6660 might be the place to sell if it can retrace that far
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #52,334
  • Feb 23, 2020 1:50am Feb 23, 2020 1:50am
Quoting messi80
Could be wrong here but i got a signal to buy at 1.07855 first TP is 1.08481 2nd is 1.08707 SL is 1.07501.
Signal I had Friday.
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Weekly chart
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Motivation comes from within
  • #52,335
  • Feb 23, 2020 1:57am Feb 23, 2020 1:57am
Quoting gatorinla
these were posted long before this recent flu. estimated 50/100 million died https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY
wish not another pandemic outbreak we may face this year but in reality this covid 19 already crossing the limit to pandemic with new clusters in South Korea, Singapore and Iran other than china with even though the world got enough time for the preparation to ready while china crack down to halt it . do it NOw or never and only 2% death rate with contagiousness of flu can easily kill millions again. all leaders & related fail contain should eventually go to hall of shame for next generation.so all turmoils to continue to an unprecedented levels .
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #52,336
  • Feb 23, 2020 3:07am Feb 23, 2020 3:07am
Italy getting hit. Parts of Northern Italy to be on lockdown, Milan not included. Possible case(s) in Rome (not confirmed yet).
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #52,337
  • Feb 23, 2020 4:21am Feb 23, 2020 4:21am
Quoting fontu
{quote} wish not another pandemic outbreak we may face this year but in reality this covid 19 already crossing the limit to pandemic with new clusters in South Korea, Singapore and Iran other than china with even though the world got enough time for the preparation to ready while china crack down to halt it . do it NOw or never and only 2% death rate with contagiousness of flu can easily kill millions again. all leaders & related fail contain should eventually go to hall of shame for next generation.so all turmoils to continue to an unprecedented...
The death rate higher.. the 2% is counting the sick. The outcome rate tells the real story. How many survive with no symptoms, compared to dead. That rate is over 10%. Sometimes 15%,, If a person has the virus, he is in limbo, until the final outcome.

In historic flu pandemics, this is how it was calculated. Amount of the population who died compared to the living, (sick or not).


The method of counting all living with the virus compared to dead is false indication. It lowers the % to fool the masses. In China the confirmed cases in the hospital have a death rate about 15%. The ones dying at home or in the streets are not counted. That 15% could change either way. These viruses can mutate within 1 patient. The 15% can rise.

One can do their own math, using the outcome numbers. I dont count the sick, because the outcome is not known yet. One can assume using the final number, that up to 15% of the sick will die.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #52,338
  • Feb 23, 2020 4:29am Feb 23, 2020 4:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The death rate higher.. the 2% is counting the sick. The outcome rate tells the real story. How many survive with no symptoms, compared to dead. That rate is over 10%. Sometimes 15%,, If a person has the virus, he is in limbo, until the final outcome. In historic flu pandemics, this is how it was calculated. Amount of the population who died compared to the living, (sick or not). The method of counting all living with the virus compared to dead is false indication. It lowers the % to fool the masses. In China the confirmed cases in the hospital...
Like this, divide the "dead number" into the "recovered number" its a 10.57% death rate here. It's been as high as 15% in the past few weeks. One who gets the flu, has a 89.5% survival rate. World population 7.5 billion and virus mutations. The outcome could be a large number. Places with dense populations like India, etc. could be in trouble. Because spreading in close confines is easier.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #52,339
  • Feb 23, 2020 4:31am Feb 23, 2020 4:31am
Buy CLX/Sell AAPL....
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #52,340
  • Feb 23, 2020 4:43am Feb 23, 2020 4:43am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Buy CLX/Sell AAPL.... {image}
Clorox is one to own.. Campbells soup and Spam.. Dupont Tyvek suits will be in style. I stocked up on food and amo.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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