Time and Price Forecasting

Only took a couple of trades last week, on stocks that came out well having drawn my angles it was a no brainer for the anticipated earnings releases.

Only took a couple of trades last week, on stocks that came out well having drawn my angles it was a no brainer for the anticipated earnings releases. These charts are just to illustrate the fact the, the SAM works on everything ...

Whatever works for you, it's your money on the line, no ones selling a product here or promoting anyone. All I am doing is showing what is possible with the strategy I am using. I have spent thousands on various systems, and they all have something in common, they will work on a trending market or ranging market but when it all looks messy they fail all because they only focus on PRICE. When you start focusing on Price and Time you get the whole picture.
As we all know the trading community is full of spaghetti indicators that cloud vision which is what the brokers always promote, If you need clarity you will find decent methods to trade-off it's all down to ones trading personality nothing more.

I am 68 and it needs to be simple for me ha some charts are so loaded with lines, angles, Fibs and all I just have no idea how some people can trade from them but fair play to them if it works thats the main thing

Time lines see post 1,102 https://www.traderslog.com/marketgeometry

Using this method I thought I would try it out on the Euro.

EURUSD had a significant high 1.25556 on 16/2/18 so that is where I started the count.

The last count on the first cycle came in at 1.25556 x 2.23 on 9/1/2019 so I treated this as a time cycle and used the high on that date as a new starting / cycle point.

The latest cycle high is 1.10915 on 7/11/19 and suggested turning points on 26/12/19 and 26/1/20.

The next time line comes in on 3rd March however placing fib levels between the cycle lines can quite often give intra turning points, in this case the 13th and 23rd of Feb . If you use the fib time tool you need to drag it left to right between the cycle lines and then right to left to get the other .618 levels.( dashed lines on chart ) or just count the candles between the lines then divide by 100 x .382/.618.

I have another timing method which has given the 13th of Feb for a turn but we need to give a few days +/- and of course use our main approach for trades but I think time is a valuable addition.

Hope some of you guys can share other timing methods, I'm always into the spooky stuff.

The chart

Red lines = cycle start / end points

Blue dotted lines = time lines

Blue dashed lines = intra time lines

EDIT

H1 shows whats possible see chart

EXPEDIA A 120 mn chart

I like that median line, it was respected nicely, you know you are on the right track when price levels get honored,

Aworex, So true, using the Jenkins Secret Angle along with Discipline can be a killer combination, and agreed Trading Personality has everything to do with it.
P

Aworex all that is very easy to understand because it based on the same principle :

Return to the Mean. With the Time being, Price returns to its mean.

The "45°" Gann Angle is de facto a "mean" - 1 Price Unit x 1 Time Unit. As "mean" and " Moving Averages" became in the 50's more "fashionable" Gann wrote in the last versions of his Trading Courses that the "45° Angle " is a " moving average". Gann was always a top marketing man.

Anyway Andrews Median Line is IMHO a simplistic but robust tool. But IMHO Tillman Pitchforks are better because they have a much better theoretical justification.

There is the same relation between Chart patterns explained by Chartists and Chart patterns explained by the Cycle Theory than between Andrews and Tillman Pitchforks.

The first are just observational tools, the second are included and justified into a system which explains how and why these patterns or tools exist and what are their structural limits

Anyway the work made by Tim Morge and Greg Fisher on how to use Pitchforks for trading is a must.

Original work on median lines was done by Dr. Alan Andrews and Roger Ward Babson. Dr. Timothy Morge has also done much work that stems directly from these original works. It can be found here:

http://www.medianline.com/articles/

Much of the "stuff" out there on the internet and in books is sadly a distortion of median line "theory". New traders are often lured into using median lines as channels as they focus on the lines as being magical diagonal support and resistance which they are not.

At it's most basic median lines attempt to project price from 3 pivots. So pivot A to pivot B projects pivot C to pivot D. After "C" is determined price approaches the median line (the true center line) and either fails to reach it, bounces from it, zooms it, zooms it and retests it. From this one can make certain inferences about what price may do next. Here are the most basic rules:



Tim Morge is now more into action/reaction rather than median iines and his focus on trading has become somewhat removed from traditional Andrew's Pitchfork stuff. Accessing his current teachings is a bit expensive.

Shane Blankenship teaches at www.languageofmarkets.com where you can find some free stuff to view. Shane's work I believe to be the most relevant to median lines with no magical line BS and a healthy emphasis on price action at a bar level and swing level. Swings are the basic element of median lines and understanding them and their flow is key.

By construction Centered Moving Averages linked by a relationship of 2 between their respective periods crosses in the MIDDLE of the Swing (bearish or bullish)

Hence you can classify and hierarchize the various "crossings" called Focal Points by Jim Tillman which are of different degrees (2, 3, 4 etc Centered Moving Averages crosses at the same location).

Then you can classify and hierarchize the different Swings and link Focal Points of the same degree to build a Pitchfork

By the way it is most of the time very useful to divide the Pitchfork Swing by 8 !

Not perfect because it is hand drawn. But robust enough to give vou a "look and feel" about the division by 8 of the Pitchfork

NB : I like the Trend Angle tool of TradingView because you are at least sure to draw exact parallels

Wow, thank you all for the new lesson on the Median line, Will do some reading to understand more and thanks for highlighting the possibility of drawing trendlines with ANGLES on trading view.

Aworex, your a quick study, it will be a snap for you.
P

FYI

There are some rules that should be followed when drawing forks whether by hand or using the pitchfork tool provided in most trading platforms.
1. Pivots A, B, and C must always be in a H,L,H or L,H,L sequence. It is incorrect to choose pivots in a H,H,L or a L,L,H sequence.
2. Although not mandatory it is helpful to choose obvious swings with well-formed pivots.
3. A correctly drawn fork can be verified as valid if pivot A to B is equal to C to D. This assumes that the sine wave of the fork is complete. But one can project C to D even if it has not made a complete sine wave.

This is a standard fork


This is a modified Schiff fork


Notice A-B projects C-D in both and that in both A-B and C-D do not change.