How often do your trades go into profit, then to negative etc | Forex Factory

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How often do your trades go into profit, then to negative etc

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 14, 2020 10:59am Feb 14, 2020 10:59am
Whenever I place a trade I often find it will go into profit like 30 - 50 pips and then a day or two later it will go -80 pips or something and it's incredibly frustrating.
You're probably thinking "just take the 30 - 50 pip profit then", but if I take such a small profit for my wins, my losses will be massive because if my profit target is just 30 - 50 pips then my stop loss will have to be like 10 pips or something to keep my risk reward ratio good, which means my trades won't have much room to breath and I'll probably get stopped out very quickly.

So how often do your trades go into profit and then the next day or so they go against you, how do you deal with this emotion? Most of my trades do something similar to this. Sorry for crude drawing.
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  • #2
  • Feb 14, 2020 2:38pm Feb 14, 2020 2:38pm
Per my understanding it seems that your trade entries are precise but you lack confidence on your analysis and seem to have no patience. The market moves up and down constantly so if you already set your TP and SL from beginning why you don't stick to it? Have you ever wondered why when you trade on a demo account you seem to be more profitable? that's because your mindset is different meaning you don't get frustrated if market behaves this way and will eventually hit your tp and might take days or weeks to do so.
  • #3
  • Feb 14, 2020 3:03pm Feb 14, 2020 3:03pm
From what you describe here it sounds to me like your entries are either too early or too late.

Too early:
This means you are anticipating a move but you have not allowed the opposing side to finish exhausting before you enter. So perhaps waiting for that move that causes you the frustration to show itself and THEN enter. You might even get a better entry price.

Too late:
You are waiting for "confirmation" if your trade idea and by the time you get this "confirmation" the move you were anticipating is nearly complete and must now retrace before continuing.

It might be helpful to re-evaluate the mechanism you use to enter...IMHO if you are using some type of technical analysis (which is always late) end then waiting for "confirmation", you are probably late to the party.
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  • #4
  • Feb 14, 2020 4:13pm Feb 14, 2020 4:13pm
Quoting Hype
Whenever I place a trade I often find it will go into profit like 30 - 50 pips and then a day or two later it will go -80 pips or something and it's incredibly frustrating.

Using your example:

Attached Image


Using your ideal analog Line Chart, the answer to your troubles has been annotated and affixed. The tools needed to solve this problem are:

1) A simple Price Line Chart
2) A Tool that provides you with accurate information about Market Magnitude in each Time Frame.

With these two weapons, you can accomplish the goals of:

- Learning how to be patient while waiting for the proper Entry level
- Learning proper Risk Management skill
- Learn how to mange your capital to endure those trades that do not immediately work out
- Learn the Art of Growing Capital slowly and consistently

This was one of many solutions to solve the Timing problem. There are many more, but they require further Technical Analysis of the Market. The rest is Direction, Magnitude and Probability which were not shown here. Your post was about a "Timing" problem. That problem has now been solved. Now, go forth and practice developing good Timing skills.

The "Risk" in the ideal line chart trade above resides between the Green and Red horizontal lines that represent the 1st Long and 1st Short trades. The Delta between those two lines is what you are risking in order to put yourself in a position for the remainder of the pull into the upside of your ideal line chart. Keep in mind, you posted an ideal line chart. Thus, my example was likewise, ideal. The Delta is what I call the RoR (Roar, like a Lion). Or, the Region of Risk.

First, in order to get better Timing, one must be willing to wait (patiently) for a new RoR (Region of Risk) to be created by the market. You don't create the RoR. The Market creates the RoR with Price Action. One must be willing to wait for the Market to provide the opportunity.

Second, the RoR Range (Delta in Pips between both lines) must fit your Risk Tolerance. IF RoR > Risk Tolerance, THEN no Entry is proper (for you). IF RoR <= Risk Tolerance, THEN Entry is proper (for you).

Third, the Market may decide to reverse itself after passing through the Upper Level (Green Line) or Lower Level (Red Line) of the RoR Range. One must decide whether or not one will accept the "Risk" predefined in the RoR Range, by reversing trade direction if/when the Market decides to retrace the RoR Range.

Fourth, if the number of RoR Range reversal by the Market exceeds Market Magnitude for the Time Frame in which one expects to net profits, then the next RoR Trade Entry is not proper (for you). Every RoR Entry taken within the Time Frame in which one expect to take net profits, must also contain sufficient Market Magnitude for that same Time Frame. This condition is critical. One can use the Market Magnitude of a larger Time Frame in which the RoR Range Entry was taken, but one must also extend the event horizon for their expectation of taking profits according to the size of that larger Time Frame.

This is the beginning of a very long (long) journey. However, this will also go a long way to relieving some of that frustration you so eloquently wrote about above.

Hope this helps and solid trades to you.
  • #5
  • Feb 14, 2020 5:02pm Feb 14, 2020 5:02pm
Quoting JetTrader
{quote} Using your example: {image} Using your ideal analog Line Chart, the answer to your troubles has been annotated and affixed. The tools needed to solve this problem are: 1) A simple Price Line Chart 2) A Tool that provides you with accurate information about Market Magnitude in each Time Frame. With these two weapons, you can accomplish the goals of: - Learning how to be patient while waiting for the proper Entry level - Learning proper Risk Management skill - Learn how to mange your capital to endure those trades that do not immediately work...
Thanks, appreciate the tips.
  • #6
  • Feb 14, 2020 6:01pm Feb 14, 2020 6:01pm
Quoting Hype
{quote} Thanks, appreciate the tips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Forgot to mention - you can do this on the M1, M5 and M15 time frames, but locating the proper RoR Range to trade can get a bit cluttered in those dimensions of time.

First, the smallest Time Frame that's best for this would be M30. H1, H4, D1, W1 and MN1 all work fine. Just know that the RoR Range will typically increase with an increase in the size of the Time Frame being observed.

Second, it is not a bad idea to start with MN1 and begin defining the most recent RoR Range in that Time Frame. Then work you way down through W1, D1, H4 and H1 until you reach M30. You will then see all the RoR Ranges on a single M30 Chart.

Third, the most powerful trades come from stacked (synchronized) RoR Ranges in multiple time frames. So, when the Upper and Lower RoR Range Levels in M30 and H1 (as just one example of time frame sync of Upper and/or Lower RoR Range Levels) are aligned and share the same price levels, those tend to be better trades on average than not - leading to larger profit runs than most. So, locating RoR Range Level Sync is worth the effort.

With practice and effort, you will notice less fear of the draw because your "Risk" is now properly defined by the RoR Range itself. And, you should notice better overall trade results when you make sure that there is ample Magnitude (ATR, ADR or whatever you decide to use to measure Magnitude) in a Larger Time Frame than the one used to set-up the RoR.

Many misunderstand the need for Available Magnitude in a Larger Time Frame and that often times causes this approach to not be as effective as it can.

So, remember, available Magnitude in a LARGER Time Frame is super critical. That simply means that the expected Range of that Larger Time Frame has not yet been used (initialized) by the Market. RoR Range Trades under these circumstances have a historically significant edge over those that are taken when LARGER Time Frame Magnitude has been 'statistically' depleted (initialized) by the Market.

Initialization simply means: The Market has already traversed the expected range within the Time Frame used for the purpose of defining Available Magnitude sufficient to take the RoR Range Trade.

Have a good weekend thinking about The "Tips" of RoR.
  • #7
  • Feb 15, 2020 8:26am Feb 15, 2020 8:26am
Maybe when profit, take some off the table like 80% ( pay yourself for getting at least the entry correct ) and let the other 20% play out.
  • #8
  • Feb 15, 2020 8:43am Feb 15, 2020 8:43am
Quoting DojiSan
Maybe when profit, take some off the table like 80% ( pay yourself for getting at least the entry correct ) and let the other 20% play out.
But if I'm taking my profits early and letting my losers close out at their full loss then I'm just decreasing my risk / reward ratio.

Taking profit early is one of the biggest reasons retail traders lose in the long term. Maybe I can find a method where every 100 pips I can take 10% or something.
  • #9
  • Feb 15, 2020 9:11am Feb 15, 2020 9:11am
Quoting Hype
Whenever I place a trade I often find it will go into profit like 30 - 50 pips and then a day or two later it will go -80 pips or something and it's incredibly frustrating. You're probably thinking "just take the 30 - 50 pip profit then", but if I take such a small profit for my wins, my losses will be massive because if my profit target is just 30 - 50 pips then my stop loss will have to be like 10 pips or something to keep my risk reward ratio good, which means my trades won't have much room to breath and I'll probably get stopped out very quickly....
Hey, interesting, what time frame is this chart?
J12
  • #10
  • Feb 15, 2020 9:20am Feb 15, 2020 9:20am
Quoting j12
{quote} Hey, interesting, what time frame is this chart?
I exclusively trade the daily time frame.
  • #11
  • Feb 15, 2020 9:24am Feb 15, 2020 9:24am
Now, there are multiple answers to this question, it depends on your trading style. You need to know which kind of move you're expecting to get after you enter.
But, statistically speaking most of your trades will be negative before they go positive, so you need to let the trade run its full course.. Also depending on your system, this should be accounted for.

The example you're giving sounds like, your entry is too late into the move you're trying to get, hence the 80 pip pullback, to then keep going up?
Emotionally speaking, you should simply try to focus on your system as much as possible. If you make money, then who cares if the trade goes positive to negative to then positive?
  • #12
  • Feb 15, 2020 9:57am Feb 15, 2020 9:57am
Quoting Hype
Whenever I place a trade I often find it will go into profit like 30 - 50 pips and then a day or two later it will go -80 pips or something and it's incredibly frustrating. You're probably thinking "just take the 30 - 50 pip profit then", but if I take such a small profit for my wins, my losses will be massive because if my profit target is just 30 - 50 pips then my stop loss will have to be like 10 pips or something to keep my risk reward ratio good, which means my trades won't have much room to breath and I'll probably get stopped out very quickly....
I dont know your tp preference but, my first tip is find out good tp (dont have to be the best one) pivots, fibonnaci etc. “some level till price like to go when its going”.
then enter trade with your setup but with at least rr 1:5.
with this high rr you can afford mistakes.(mistakes are natural and when you are testing some strategy cut 50% of profit because people doing some stupid shit when green or red emotions kick in)

for example i had more or less same problem, but now i dont enter trade when rr is not at least 1:8-10.

I wait for couple of days, some time whole week , for optimal setup and then i enter. The biggest challenge with this type of trading are patience and after much more patience.
good luck
patience, patience, patience and after that more patience
  • #13
  • Feb 21, 2020 9:51am Feb 21, 2020 9:51am
It sounds like you are very emotionally attached to your trades. I find if I start getting frustrated with the movement of any one trade it usually means:

1. I'm watching price movement too closely (especially if I start looking at lower TFs) and it's time to close the screens and go and do something else.
2. I'm fearful of losing (this is usually when in a draw down or when I'm feeling less confident).

The solution?

1. Go out and do something interesting, or go for a run or get outside or read a book - anything other than trading.
2. Test my discipline on the next trade by setting orders for entry, stop and profit and do not look at the trade AT ALL until it has been closed.

It's a great way to reset my mindset if I have been getting too involved.

Remember, trading is a mindf*ck if we let it. In my opinion, once I'm in a trade, the less time I spend following every tick the better.

Also, there is no "right" or "wrong" entry. There is no "right" or "wrong" strategy. Trade the way that makes sense to you, trust yourself and stick with it.

All the best
  • #14
  • Feb 21, 2020 11:17am Feb 21, 2020 11:17am
Quoting ChilledT
It sounds like you are very emotionally attached to your trades. I find if I start getting frustrated with the movement of any one trade it usually means: 1. I'm watching price movement too closely (especially if I start looking at lower TFs) and it's time to close the screens and go and do something else. 2. I'm fearful of losing (this is usually when in a draw down or when I'm feeling less confident). The solution? 1. Go out and do something interesting, or go for a run or get outside or read a book - anything other than trading. 2. Test my discipline...
The problem with the approach of just setting orders and then not looking at it, is that the market conditions constantly change, so you might exit, when it's not even a logical time to exit, or the logical time to exit might've been slightly before your take profit, so you miss all the profit and even take a loss. Think about it logically which approach do you think will bring the best performance?
  • #15
  • Feb 21, 2020 6:11pm Feb 21, 2020 6:11pm
Quoting W1llbam
{quote} The problem with the approach of just setting orders and then not looking at it, is that the market conditions constantly change, so you might exit, when it's not even a logical time to exit, or the logical time to exit might've been slightly before your take profit, so you miss all the profit and even take a loss. Think about it logically which approach do you think will bring the best performance?
Ahh therein lies the golden nugget... are we after the best performance or the performance that brings the least amount of mind-bending second-guessing stress?
I'm happy with less stress even if I know it's not the optimum return...
  • #16
  • Last Post: Feb 22, 2020 4:18am Feb 22, 2020 4:18am
Quoting ChilledT
{quote} Ahh therein lies the golden nugget... are we after the best performance or the performance that brings the least amount of mind-bending second-guessing stress? I'm happy with less stress even if I know it's not the optimum return...
If you have a complete system and a set of rules on exactly how you manage your trades that are based on logic, then you know what to do, there is not really any nerves. But I can see why the "Set your orders and run" approach makes things easier.
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