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$ For The week of 10/23-With Some Trade Ideas

  • #61
  • Oct 26, 2006 3:28pm Oct 26, 2006 3:28pm
Quoting rusty105
So it begs the question:

How much further can the Dollar sink? 25, 50, 100 pips? I only ask because I am really $ Long right now on 4 pairs and not sure if I should cut the losers free. Cutting them free would cut about 45% of my Small mini account off, but I would still have it. But I could also lose the rest as the if losers got worse, right? I know no one can predict where and when the market will move. I think this week proves that. I would hate to sell the losers then see the market do a 180, I am still learnning, so I would consider this a tution payment towards my FX Degree, but some payments are hard to swallow. I thought I was ok this week, Guess not!!

Rusty
Just a couple of questions.

What was your trading plan to begin with? What was your exit plan? Where did you place your stops? Have you moved your stops?

One of the BIGGEST mistakes people make is letting the losers run...to the point of trashing 45% of your account. Wow.

I would say...determine your tolerance level here...you are already way past thresholds of good trade management. Put a plan into place and put stops in at a logical and precise spot...somewhere hidden perhaps...behind a point of resistence or support.

You will live and die with your decision. It will reverse. But you must save enough of your capital to trade the next day.

And, just in my opinion...Don't ever be happy about a loss...you can learn from them...and they are part of doing business...but I can't ever remember a loss that felt good.

Better missed opportunity than lost capital

All of the above is just to provoke thought...you must make your own decisions. I hope it turns out well for you.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #62
  • Oct 26, 2006 3:49pm Oct 26, 2006 3:49pm
As everyone here knows, I have made some bad calls recently; but I went short on USD/JPY with a short-term target at 117.50. When the GDP comes out tomorrow, I will have exited with my limit or my stop loss at 119.00. Hope for the best
  • #63
  • Oct 26, 2006 4:02pm Oct 26, 2006 4:02pm
Quoting enoc2g
Thats exactly what I do with my demo i take it as a real loss... to me it is.

Great advice.
Thanks for the props-BTW I really know nothing about opitions but i'm interested. Which platform do u trade on? If you can only lose the premium, what's the upside of a trade like that?
  • #64
  • Oct 26, 2006 4:22pm Oct 26, 2006 4:22pm
Yes I will have to live and die by my decisions on this one. Thankfully This is a small account, and I am not depending on it to live. My situation is the result of letting an EA run Unattended for a few hours, and with a little more agressive setting then it should have been running with. Part of it happened a few days ago when the $ went down, and I thought I was out of the woods with that. I started the EA back up and Early morning 4-7 EDT, it got caught in a trend and kept buying lots, when it should have stopped. Yes I have demo tested this EA, and Demo vs. live testing is vastly different. In most of the demo testing it does come out of this type of trend, but I am not sure I have backtested throught something like this week. I do trade manually as well, with 1-2% risk only, and would never have this much of my equity at risk. Somthing my EA needs to take into account. !! At this point it is wait and see, and hopefully the $ doesn't take a big hit tomorow, I would like to avoid the Big M-call. Anyway, if someone could lend some insight as to where the $ might head when London opens tomorrow I would love to hear it.


Thanks
Rusty

Ironicly I stayed away from Using this EA on GBPUSD, because it trended too much.
  • #65
  • Oct 26, 2006 4:28pm Oct 26, 2006 4:28pm
You gotta treat trading like a young quarterback treats a game. A young guy isn't gonna go for the bomb at the outset-Tom Brady might-but he's already won some superbowls. How many have u won? Start with a couple of easy short passes if u can. If you feel like you haven't a clue stop. Don't throw a pass blindly. Hand the ball off. Eventually you'll see that receiver 40 yards downfield against a shorter, slower defender. If you've already thrown 2 interceptions, not only won't you see that guy, but the coach might bench you!

How were your results from the previous week? Had some losers? On your next trade, if you have like 15 pips or so, book it. Start with a winner; get yourself into a groove if you can. The value of a couple of winning trades, even if it's only a few pips, builds your confidence. The bigger trades tend to come towards the end of the week anyway-if you've been watching the markets and the fundamentals, you'll probably have a good feel for things at that time.

It's hard to be a John Elway as a trader; winning a game in the last 2 minutes takes an amazing amount of talent and mental toughness. I'll throw the bomb occasionally, but if I gotta dump it off and kick a field goal to win a game, I'll do it.

We're in the NFL now. Everyone is big, fast and strong and on any given Sunday...
  • #66
  • Oct 26, 2006 8:37pm Oct 26, 2006 8:37pm
Trading the US GDP and core PCE QoQ

To me this is a trade where 2 opposing factors exist: $ negative fundamental info vs. a lot of profits there for the taking from traders who got long from 8780, 8800, etc.

We've seen the GBP gain about 120 pips since the rate announcement and statement. It closed in NY at around 8910. What this means is that so far, traders have not yet taken profits and traders are still long based on the GDP numbers being at or below consensus.The price and lack of profit taking confirms this for me. GDP is a number that can be researched very accurately; it's components are known. What could happen from here?

It is possible to see some profits taken during Friday's London session. No way to predict this-you just have to watch and see what happens. If we do see some profits taken and the level holds, an excellent long oppurtunity exits again in the GBP. The ideal trade would be if it's at this level just before 12.30 GMT. If it is, I plan to take a long position.

What may also happen is that once a bottom is hit, GDP buying will resume gradually. You may want to try to catch it as this happens.

What I would like not to see is the GBP get much higher from here. Again, no way to predict this. To my thinking the higher it is before the numbers, the less it will rise after the announcement. The thing to watch for from a higher level is a brief pop up, followed by a big round of profit taking.What makes me wary of profit taking is that it's the end of the week and the end of the month. Traders may want to book profits for their accounts. If you do get into this trade from a higher level, you'll have to watch for this. Of course, continuous buying of the pound may be seen; but as I said, the higher the level of cable before the trade, the trickier it's going to be.

If your asking yourself why I'm watching the GBP/USD pair as opposed to the EUR/USD pair, i'm trading on my basic premise of one currency (GBP) who's rate is tipped to go up vs one currency (USD) who's rate isn't.
  • #67
  • Edited 9:19pm Oct 26, 2006 9:05pm | Edited 9:19pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
If your asking yourself why I'm watching the GBP/USD pair as opposed to the EUR/USD pair, i'm trading on my basic premise of one currency (GBP) who's rate is tipped to go up vs one currency (USD) who's rate isn't.
To novice fundamental traders, the above is 100% agreeable.
GBPUSD is poised to break 1.8950 intermediate barrier and if that falls, 1.9000 is open for a hot strike.

Quote
[01:54 EUR/USD: Sellers Capping At 1.2715 For Now, Small Stops Above] Sydney, October 27: The EUR/USD is decidedly bid in Asia this morning with a few stops above 1.2715 in the market"s focus. There is a decent sell order at that level and more selling tipped at 1.2720/25. Larger stops are building above 1.2725. Sentiment towards the EUR/USD has turned bullish after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, hawkish comments from Trichet and soft data last night along with rumours that the US GDP later today will be worse than expected. There are whispers in the street that the US GDP might come in around 1.5% and this would add to the view taken after the FOMC statement on Wednesday that the Fed will not be hiking rates again. The EUR/USD trades 1.2707/12. -- [email protected] [IFR Forex Watch] [SQUAWK BOX]

NewstraderFX has already pointed that the FED may have "advance" knowledge of the PCE and with that, they decided NOT to hike rates last Wednesday.

Currently, I am in long already.. Will add more lots @ 1.8915; could not be wrong on this one. At least even if the rumor is false, it would move GBPUSD up anyways..
  • #68
  • Oct 27, 2006 1:40am Oct 27, 2006 1:40am
Quoting NewstraderFX
Trading the US GDP and core PCE QoQ

To me this is a trade where 2 opposing factors exist: $ negative fundamental info vs. a lot of profits there for the taking from traders who got long from 8780, 8800, etc.

We've seen the GBP gain about 120 pips since the rate announcement and statement. It closed in NY at around 8910. What this means is that so far, traders have not yet taken profits and traders are still long based on the GDP numbers being at or below consensus.The price and lack of profit taking confirms this for me. GDP is a number that can be researched very accurately; it's components are known. What could happen from here?

It is possible to see some profits taken during Friday's London session. No way to predict this-you just have to watch and see what happens. If we do see some profits taken and the level holds, an excellent long oppurtunity exits again in the GBP. The ideal trade would be if it's at this level just before 12.30 GMT. If it is, I plan to take a long position.

What may also happen is that once a bottom is hit, GDP buying will resume gradually. You may want to try to catch it as this happens.

What I would like not to see is the GBP get much higher from here. Again, no way to predict this. To my thinking the higher it is before the numbers, the less it will rise after the announcement. The thing to watch for from a higher level is a brief pop up, followed by a big round of profit taking.What makes me wary of profit taking is that it's the end of the week and the end of the month. Traders may want to book profits for their accounts. If you do get into this trade from a higher level, you'll have to watch for this. Of course, continuous buying of the pound may be seen; but as I said, the higher the level of cable before the trade, the trickier it's going to be.

If your asking yourself why I'm watching the GBP/USD pair as opposed to the EUR/USD pair, i'm trading on my basic premise of one currency (GBP) who's rate is tipped to go up vs one currency (USD) who's rate isn't.

Your everyday view in the currency market specifically GBP/USD is always worth considering! keep posting more such NewstraderFX! Way to go!!!
  • #69
  • Oct 27, 2006 6:34am Oct 27, 2006 6:34am
Quoting NewstraderFX
You gotta treat trading like a young quarterback treats a game. A young guy isn't gonna go for the bomb at the outset-Tom Brady might-but he's already won some superbowls. How many have u won? Start with a couple of easy short passes if u can. If you feel like you haven't a clue stop. Don't throw a pass blindly. Hand the ball off. Eventually you'll see that receiver 40 yards downfield against a shorter, slower defender. If you've already thrown 2 interceptions, not only won't you see that guy, but the coach might bench you!

How were your results from the previous week? Had some losers? On your next trade, if you have like 15 pips or so, book it. Start with a winner; get yourself into a groove if you can. The value of a couple of winning trades, even if it's only a few pips, builds your confidence. The bigger trades tend to come towards the end of the week anyway-if you've been watching the markets and the fundamentals, you'll probably have a good feel for things at that time.

It's hard to be a John Elway as a trader; winning a game in the last 2 minutes takes an amazing amount of talent and mental toughness. I'll throw the bomb occasionally, but if I gotta dump it off and kick a field goal to win a game, I'll do it.

We're in the NFL now. Everyone is big, fast and strong and on any given Sunday...
Thanks for your kind words I closed some of the trades last night for a loss hoping it will allow the remaining trades some room to breathe a little more. US news is due in about an hour, sounds like the $ could lose a little more, we'll see.
Rusty
  • #70
  • Oct 27, 2006 6:38am Oct 27, 2006 6:38am
Resistances are 1.8920s and 1.8950s the later being option related.

If these pins fall later, 1.9000 is an easy goal.
  • #71
  • Oct 27, 2006 8:03am Oct 27, 2006 8:03am
BK-your resistance numbers were really useful. I caught the initial pop and closed when it backed down to 50. It moved into the 40's, so I made a long order at 75, thinking that if it gets there, the resistance numbers might be broken...hasn't gotten there as of 9.00 EDT but we'll see what happens.
  • #72
  • Oct 27, 2006 8:13am Oct 27, 2006 8:13am
wow nice way to end the week total gain on gbp was 258 pips long from 8733 took profits along the way, out now just under 9000. What a ride!!
  • #73
  • Oct 27, 2006 8:14am Oct 27, 2006 8:14am
big time resistance TL at 9000 level...
  • #74
  • Oct 27, 2006 8:25am Oct 27, 2006 8:25am
[quote=NewstraderFX]You gotta treat trading like a young quarterback treats a game. A young guy isn't gonna go for the bomb at the outset-Tom Brady might-but he's already won some superbowls. How many have u won? Start with a couple of easy short passes if u can. If you feel like you haven't a clue stop. Don't throw a pass blindly. Hand the ball off. Eventually you'll see that receiver 40 yards downfield against a shorter, slower defender. If you've already thrown 2 interceptions, not only won't you see that guy, but the coach might bench you!

How were your results from the previous week? Had some losers? On your next trade, if you have like 15 pips or so, book it. Start with a winner; get yourself into a groove if you can. The value of a couple of winning trades, even if it's only a few pips, builds your confidence. The bigger trades tend to come towards the end of the week anyway-if you've been watching the markets and the fundamentals, you'll probably have a good feel for things at that time.

It's hard to be a John Elway as a trader; winning a game in the last 2 minutes takes an amazing amount of talent and mental toughness. I'll throw the bomb occasionally, but if I gotta dump it off and kick a field goal to win a game, I'll do it.

We're in the NFL now. Everyone is big, fast and strong and on any given Sunday...[/QUOTE Very wise advise. The market bows to no one !!
  • #75
  • Oct 27, 2006 9:10am Oct 27, 2006 9:10am
Is THIS a good time to short the cable, anticipating retracement on Monday?
  • #76
  • Oct 27, 2006 9:28am Oct 27, 2006 9:28am
Quoting salamander
Is THIS a good time to short the cable, anticipating retracement on Monday?
Personally, I don't trade this way because it's totally unpredictable. I prefer to put my time into finding things that I feel are more predictable.

You may have a feel for this, but you need to manage your account accordingly. How much of a SL do u plan on taking with a trade like this?
Your SL, if hit, should do no more then 10% worth of damage to ur account and 5% is actually preferable. Example: you have 2500 in your account. You take a position with a 30 SL. You shouldn't trade more then 8 mini's (8x30=240) and preferably trade 4 (4x30=120)

It's also a question of which trade session is best to trade this. Moves like this tend to occur in the London session. Absent fundamentals, nothing much really happens in NY, except maybe very early in the session. NY traders don't reveal their moves when everyone's looking.

Let me know how it goes for you.
  • #77
  • Oct 27, 2006 9:47am Oct 27, 2006 9:47am
We now reached 1.9000 for GBPUSD...

Recent History dictates that this is very top heavy for GBP to maintain. Could fall next week and start another USD Bull rally anew.

I personally would start shorting GBPUSD by 1.9100 w/ 1 mini lot. It wont hurt if it goes up instead..And once the trend is indeed established, i'd start putting more for the down ride.
  • #78
  • Last Post: Oct 27, 2006 10:48am Oct 27, 2006 10:48am
Enough is Enough

Ok had a really good week this week including this morning's GDP. I've had enough now. Gonna shut off my computer, shut off the BB radio, go work out, walk my dog, have a nice big steak later and F my GF till she can't take it no more...se ya lata
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