Why do traders use so many indicators?

Just for kicks and giggles. I've just added 7 times original lot size to "scale" all the way in instead of waiting. Given the long journey to the 6319 area, I figure, why not:



This creates a 23.9 pip differential between both entries which should require a 7.1 pip (or there about) move to clear out the draw as of this posting.

I will convert this to a deep SwapCycle if necessary, before I retire for the evening. I don't use Stops. However, this trade is so structurally sound that I don't think I'll need to deploy the SwapCycle.

Limit Order Adjustments:



1st Trade: Set limit order to BE.
2nd Trade: Replaced 1st Trade's limit order at original target.

This somewhat bypassed the FiFO restriction making it non-harmful. And, this essentially resets the original entry to a lower and better position in the overall trade while simultaneously scaling my cost basis to where I wanted it to be overall.

I've thought about converting this to a SwapCycle to protect against any overnight Black Swan, but I've decided to simply go to bed instead. We've already had the AUD news blip and the structure of the trade is sound enough for me. Note, however, if this were a live cash account trade, I'd never (ever) let it run overnight without converting this Directional trade into a Non-Directional trade by replacing these directional entries with some kind of SwapCycle configuration.

The market is tracking the lower (rising) inbound B2i line fairly well during this B2i launch. We'll see how volatile the market gets relative to this line over the next day or so. 128+ pips is the general idea here, which has just been improved with the draw recovery technique now in the works (should this continue back to the original entry level).

Catch ya on the rebound.

Yes, Metatrader´s ladder is only from those broker´s clients,(i.e. useless), but there is one at interbank level, where the Big Big Boys can see where the bigger chunks of orders are placed. Remember, some 70% of the volume is run by a handful of Big Banks, one can Google the facts. Deutsche Bank, City, etc.

Ok, VIP. You asked for trades. So, let's dig into the recap. I'll use the System's Research Mode to go back and review this trade from the start to now using the M5 chart time frame. Yellow dashed vertical line is the System's Handle which is dragged and dropped anywhere in the history of the chart to see what the System was showing at any specific time in the past.

The System's view of the market 10 minutes before the AUD bank news at Panel Handle Time 23:39 (Forex.com server time):



1) At 23:39 (several minutes before my original post about EURAUD), Panel shows fairly good new rotational energy to the Long side. This is where I began to get suspicious about any Short side continuance from this point. Early Long sided rotation can be seen in all System Modules except TCDi7 and GMMA, which remained strongly Short sided up to this point. TripleStoch showed early Long side rotation in the lower time frame, but remained fairly intact to the Short side in the larger time frames. RPD telling pretty much the same story as TripleStoch.

2) At Forex.com time 00:42:42, first Buy Order entered level 1.6186. Left side of Panel (first three Indicator Modules) had shifted back to the Short side with right side of Panel (last three Indicator Modules) maintaining early signs of rotation to the Long side though somewhat weaker at this stage. Market then moves down from that entry to an H4 low of 1.6152 for an early draw phase of -34 pips (absolute). I post a comment indicating the entry was early, but overall structure still looked good.




3) At Forex.com time 02:27:15, second Buy Order for 7 times 1st in size was entered at . Panel shows that only TripleStoch maintains a decent amount of upside energy at this stage to return the back to the original Long entry level and presenting an opportunity to do some Draw Recovery between the first order's 6186 level and the second order's 6162 for a 24 pip differential at a ratio of 7:1. As a side note, I set the Draw Recovery Ratio based on the amount of available Cost Basis I have remaining for a specific pair. Each pair's DRR calculation is determined by whether or not the USD is the counter currency, base currency or whether I have to convert a non-USD pair's Per Pip Value which is nothing more than taking calculated Lot Size for the Non-USD pair and then dividing by the Non-USD pair's current Bid Price (just a side note as to how I go about doing DRR calculations). At this point, I'm willing to allow the DRR to take place as I can see enough Long side rotation in the Panel to warrant the risk.




4) At Forex.com time 06:12:52 (showing 07:05 in the Panel pic), the market moves back to BE on 1st Long entry. 1st Long entry is closed at +0.5 pips. 2nd Long entry (DDR Trade) remains open at +24 pips and at a 7 times 1st trade's original lot size. This concludes the first successful DRR Trade. At this stage the Panel is showing fairly good Long side rotation once again in all System Modules. Its getting late in my time zone and I decide to get retire for the evening, leaving the 2nd Long side trade open and not deploying a SwapCycle to cover any Short sided Black Swan. Of course, my original post shows that I do not hold open and exposed trades overnight, but that I would do it for this exhibition just for the heck of it.




5) At Forex.com time 09:04 (while I was asleep), the market had turned to the downside right back to the entry of the 2nd Long side trade. At this point, Panel still shows some upside energy remaining intact for an early Long sided reversal set-up.




6) At Forex.com time 10:00, the market returns back to a DRR +24 pip condition. Panel shows pretty much the same Long sided bias only this time TripleStoch starts to invert its bias to the Short side in the lower time frames. This is an early indication that the Long sided bias might not have enough energy to sustain itself. Had I been at my trading desk managing this trade, this lower time frame TripleStoch inversion Short would have given me cause to consider the potential for a lack of follow through to the upside. However, there was sufficient overall Long sided bias in the Panel at this stage for me to Hold the 2nd Long trade.



7) At Forex.com time 11:15 (3:15am my time), the market moves back below the 2nd Long entry level and the Panel reverses into Short continuance. Short continuance can be seen in D1 OmegaWave's Pi output. That value had reached the 50% mark. That's significant in this System's current configuration because it typically sets the tone for the rest of the D1 Magnitude for the session.

With D1 OmegaWave Pi approaching 50% (at 48% in the pic), all DistinctVega DR output fully Short and with D1 L-Pi and T-Pi having plenty of fuel in their tanks to the Short side, all RPD DR Short and Raw output moving closer to PLA values, all GMMA Micro TCD-S values shifting to the downside and the D1 TripleStoch now showing a straight line of Short sided output, it would have been time to hit the Close & Reverse hotkey into the Short trade. That would have resulted in a 6.5 pip loss at 3.5 PPV (Per Pip Value) and an eventual +37.2 pip gain at 3.5 PPV (Per Pip Value) for a net/net +30.7 pip roughly by the time of this post this morning.

This is why I use a Integrated Trading System and precisely why I don't trade naked positions overnight. A good lesson for those that do leave naked and uncovered positions running while they are asleep at night. Unless you have a System that can detect critical shifts in the underlying market and that can execute Close & Reversal Orders for you while you sleep, I consider it unwise to leave naked positions running.

Current Condition

B2i Upside Target adjusted itself to 1.6354. Now the B2i Upside Target is +191 pips. A now bigger target. B2i is not a Trade Signal. It is a Targeting mechanism. The B2i Target basically says, if the Trading System (Panel) supports Upside Bias, then the B2i Fall Line (Blue) represents a structural level that the Market should reach with a high degree of historical probability. So, the System has to provide the Signal Bias and B2i provides complimentary targeting levels.

Since the System has already played its hand and I know that Long side bias is lurking within the System, and I'm already in a fairly decent position, I'll leave this Long on Hold.

Note the current market condition as seen by the System:




Current Draw -41 pips. Current Target now +191 pips. Real-Time RR = 4.65. This is now officially a Swing Trade.

Any questions?

Internal System Bias Indication



Zooming in on one of the System Modules (DistinctVega), I observe what's taking place on the side of that module which is in opposition to the current market direction. In this case, I observe the output for the Long side of that module and both the L-Pi and T-Pi outputs. As the market heads down, when I see the L-Pi and T-Pi values begin to increase in size (100% plus) on the Long side of the DistinctVega Module in the larger time frames, I know that Long side market rotation is near for those larger time frames. This requires a Short sided market to be in place. The inverse would also be true when there is a Long sided market currently in place.

This is one of the Rotational indications that I use in the System. If the Market is going to remain pinned down, then it would not allow those specific outputs to gain traction. When I start seeing those values consistently exceeding 100%+ on the lower time frames and pinging 100% on the larger time frames, it tells me that Buyers are spooling up and its only a matter of time before the older Shorts (from much higher above current price) start covering themselves. The Short covering plus "new blood" Long sided money either leads to a Market Correction (shorter term) or a Market Reversal (longer term).

Every Module in the System has its own unique Reversal Bias Indication (RBI). This is just an example of how I use the DV-RBI.

I have to say the effort you have put into organizing this data into an entry based system is really impressive. I do not fully understand your system so I cannot really make any judgement on it yet. From what I understand so far it's basically a momentum based system where you enter the market with the momentum of a combination of data. That seems fine. I do believe that you may be able to increase profitability of this system by adding a bias based on current economic strength for each currency individually.

This EURAUD long trade you are currently in is a good example. As I said previously AUD is currently a very weak currency so shorting it is the right thing to do. However, in my opinion right now EUR is also experiencing weakness and due to BREXIT I think that it will continue to drop. So essentially buying EURAUD you are assuming that AUD weakness is greater than EUR weakness at this current price and that it is a good "value" overall to buy the EUR against the AUSSIE.

You may be right with this trade, time will tell. For me personally I am not long any EUR crosses right now because of it questionable strength.

This is why I prefer to BUY GBPAUD instead. Unfortunately I did get out of that trade early. It ended up running way higher than I thought. I exited at around 1.93850 and its currently breaking 1.39400. I still profited from the trade but I really should still be holding it.

I also made a mistake in shorting GBPUSD way to early. I knew that GBP was strong and so is USD, so really I should not have even taken that trade. I do make mistakes though, and am still learning.

I think it's important to understand the economic factors surrounding currencies if you want to achieve long term profitability. I think that is more important than technical entries. That's why I choose naked charts but I think if you incorporate this type of approach with a technical based system such as your own it would improve it a lot. The only issue is the temptation that comes with those "perfect" technical entries that sometimes can cloud your judgement.

Some analysis of EURAUD on both daily and 4HR chart. We can see it's not a bad area to buy, my only issue is EUR weakness due to economic factors making this more of a risky trade.

Yes, in this thread that's what I'm doing thus far as just one exhibition of what can be done. The System can be used for entry into a wide variety of trade types including Momentum type trades. However, it can be used to Scalp, Swing, Position and Predictive just as well. It depends on which System Configuration I use:



Right now I'm using Charlie Configuration. Charlie is a Fibonacci Ratio derivative configuration. Calculations for each Indicator's output uses a unique paring of Fibonacci Number as inputs to the Indicator's MA output. So, while the Indicator has a unique design, the MA portion uses a specific set of Fibonacci Numbers for each of the time frames and Indicators in the Panel. So, Charlie Configuration has embedded Fibonacci influence throughout. You can think of this as Hybridized System Output. In other words, the System calculates its own unique output, but through the lens of Fibonacci Numbers.

It was a great way for me to sneak in some Fibonacci, without actually using traditional Fibonacci Indicators. It keeps the System's uniqueness intact while at the same time enjoying some of the benefits of Harmonic Numbers. A blending of both worlds, so to speak.

The other System Configurations don's use this approach and the Panel's output is quite different as a result. So, it really depends on what type of trading I wish to do that determines the System Configuration I use. So, I can do those other things you talk about. I just have to use one of the other Configurations, or I'd have to create a new Configuration to match that type of trading, if necessary.

Basically, the ability to design different Configurations turns the System into a Swiss Army Knife of sorts. I'll try to demonstrate some of that flexibility in different Trade Types in my YouTube live stream channel after I get that up and running. I'm still trying to figure out how to best use OBS with a YouTube live stream.


Been there done that before with an older Trading System many years ago. The problem I ran into was the constant variability in the way the market interpreted the exact same news over time. This variability caused problems for me in particular. I used a weighted methodology based on the type of news and its previous historical impact on the market at the time. It had inputs for every pair I traded that were part of a heuristic ranking algorithm that I created which took as input to the algorithm all relevant economic report previous, current and expected data values. It was an Economic Report Engine an sub-system to the main Trading System. It was a pretty cool little design in concept, but I just could not gain the kind of precision I wanted from it. It was too much of a wildcard for me.

What I learned was that the weighting was dynamic and not fixed, but the ability to know which weighting to use per fundamental (mostly economic reports) input to the System, was always a huge guess and I don't like that much guess work in my trading. So, I eventually abandoned the concept and moved on to finishing the system I was already working on at the time. This was sometime back in the 2005'ish time frame. I'd have to go back and take a look at the creation date of the actual Excel file to know for sure.

This is more of pictorial exhibition of the Trading System. I'm on a break from production trading. Production level trading is done differently. I don't Swing Trade in production (at this stage in my career) and I don't hold uncovered positions overnight that are not SwapCycles. So, this is not the way I normally trade. But, at least it does try to fulfill the mandate or your thread. You wanted a trade and that's what I posted.

My live production trading begins between 4:30am and 5:00am local time (for me). If I'm having a great day, I can done by 6:00am. If I'm having a ok day, it might extend to 9:00am. But, if I'm have to grind on a not so good day, it could run through 2:00pm my local time. Those Trade Types would be much different than what you see being posted here. Those trade types are ruthlessly accurate.

This is just for kicks and giggles, but really to help you see what a Indicators could look like when put together in a way that comprises a System. You can see what that looks like once I get the YouTube live stream stuff working the way I want.


Yes, you could Short it, until that stops being the thing to do. Of course, the overall Panel depicted the existing Short side bias as well as existing Long reversal bias. This is why I use a System. I need to see both. And, this brings up a very good point.

It is too often the case that New Traders get locked into a specific Direction and then never see the underlying reversal bias emerging in the market. This System shows me both simultaneously. Every financial market always has both Long and Short bias, no matter how extreme one side dominates the other. In Delta Trading, I call these biases Trajectories and Vectors. And, there are always opposing Trajectories and opposing Vectors lurking in any market that appears to be one sided.

So, since I know where these Trajectories and Vectors are located relative to current market price, I can basically enter the market in any direction and still come out with either BE or a profit - as long as the System shows sufficient bias in the direction of the trade. In other words, what this particular System does for me, is it takes away the fear of getting it wrong, because it shows me real Market Structure in the language of Trajectories and Vectors.

Where other people might see "Oh, my gawd! Its going Short!!! Sell! Sell! Sell!" I see Trajectories and Vectors and the balance of power between them. This is not visible unless one can see the Deltas that make up these Trajectories and Vectors from end-to-end. This is a different approach to trading in general. I call it Delta Trading and it is quite different than any other form of trading I've seen in quite a few years.

When Retail is mostly Buying, Institutions are either Selling or prepping the Sell. When Retail is mostly Selling, Institutions are either Buying or prepping the Buy. This System inherently catches that market reality long-term - depending on the System Configuration being used at the time.


This is why Systems need Targeting information. That targeting information has to be derived from something that is empirically driven and as historically reliable as possible. There are "Targets" at all price levels. The question is, which Targets are High Probability Candidates. If you go back and look at the GBPCHF trade I posted, it right now striking through the heart of the range of Targets I posted yesterday. And, it will close today's session within that same clustering range.

So, Targeting is best when it comprises a Cluster of Targets. Targeting the Cluster instead of a specific price level works well, when that Cluster of Targets is coupled to a quality trade signal. Again, these are all calculations that would be impossible for the human brain to track simultaneously. Add Dynamic Target Clusters, a clustering of targets that moves with the market and there is no human brain anywhere that can manage such a mathematical task.

This is another good reason for using a well designed System.


Mistakes are a dime a dozen. We all make them. Recovery trading skills are far more important than making mistakes. Learning the Art and Science of the Recovery Trade will serve any trader very well over the course of their trading career. So, welcome the mistakes and the blunders as those things give you an opportunity for developing Trade Recovery Skills - equally as important as Initial Trade Skills.

In fact, part of my development as a competent Trader was to enter trades and then hope they went terribly wrong. So, I would randomly hit the mouse button and then walk away. I'd come back later to see if any damage had taken place. If so, I'd start working on honing my recovery skills to the point where I no longer feared a blown trade, because I knew how to get my capital back over time.

Learning how to recover lost capital is probably more important than learning how to the "perfect" trade, IMO. Think about it. If you are a professional fighter and you don't have good defensive recovery skills, you really are hanging by a thread in any fight. But, if you can defend yourself, learn to cover and counter-punch, you then have the ability to remain alive long enough to finally go on the offensive and win the fight.

So, make mistakes and embrace every one of them. That's the only way to improve.

Thanks for posting your H4 based EURAUD analysis - you offered an interesting interpretation. Here's my current H4 based analysis:



For me, its pretty self explanatory. For a Long Trade:

OmegaWave says, GO.
TCDi7 says, NO.
DistinctVega says, I'm Not Sure Yet.
GMMA says, NO.
TripleStoch says, GO.
RPD says, NO.

That's three No, two Go and one Wait at 19:51 server time. So, if I were already Long (which is the case in this exhibition trade), I'd have sufficient reason to not fear the Short side (at this time). Since this is a dynamic (real-time) System, that appraisal could change with time which would require me to manage the trade.

The real beauty of using a Multi-Time Frame Trading System, is that you get more than one simultaneous analysis of the pair being traded:



Just by adding D1 to the analysis, things start to look quite different than with just H4 alone. The same theme is true when you start layering in all Time Frames into the analysis. So, the takeaway here is that having real-time Multi-Time Frame analytic capability provides a significant level of insight into the analysis. The key idea here is: Real-Time Multi-Time Frame Analysis. That's what makes the difference.

In these multi frame multi indicator setups, how do you go about figuring out what kind of configuration of go/no go across every frame means “if flat, long now”? I assume it’s not a black and white majority vote (but maybe it is) but backtesting permutations of this to figure out what signals have more priority over others, and what kind of spectrum decisions live on seems like an absolute nightmare.

Reading this thread it’s lucky price only moves up and down, if it did any thing different we would all be fu.k3d.

Update: For the Harmonics Traders lurking in the thread.



One XABCD, one Fibonacci 127, Bottom of one Large B2i Structure and a Panel with initial Long side reversal bias are all now in confluence with each other.

For you pure Harmonics Traders, you are already keenly aware of the fact that ratio levels in the market are subject to change - which is one of the main reasons why people have given so many different names to the various kinds of Harmonic Patterns such as Gartley, Crab, Butterfly, etc., and the Two Headed Hydra Monsters with Wings of all shapes and sizes.

The bottom line to all Harmonics is this: They ALL are derived from Fibonacci Ratios. Period. Lots of people have taken credit over the years for finding Harmonic Patterns that already existed. Why? Because the principle driver to any Harmonic Pattern is the "Initial Thrust" that creates the basis for all other ratio retracements that must come after it in order for anyone to "see" a Harmonic Pattern taking shape. So, a New Trader is best served by focusing on the fundamentals of Fibonacci Analysis, as opposed to the names Carney, Pesavento, etc., etc., etc.

One of the best ways that I can think of to focusing on how to better understand Fibonacci Ratio Confluence, is through book written by Constance Brown called "Fibonacci Analysis." Publisher: Bloomberg Market Essentials. I believe it was originally printed circa 2008. In her book, Constance Brown tells you and shows you how and why people often misuse the use of Fibonacci Analysis by not applying the analysis across Multiple Time Frames to search for confluence among the ratios. She does a much better job of that than I could, so I'll let her book speak for itself. If you are serious about your Fibonacci Trading, then that book is a must have in your Trader's Library.

Form here, we will simply wait and see what kind B:C relationship ultimately develops as this trade pulls itself out of the Draw Phase. So, far, we can see that the most recent D1 127 Level would have been a great entry today for the current trade now underway. The things to look for here are whether or not "B" will hold as "B" and if so, will "C" hold within the acceptable range between "A" and "B" in order to retain the "Harmonic" nature of the pattern that ultimately leads to "D" - the money shot.

I can see that right now, the H4 time frame is now in control. Almost complete control of EURAUD is within the domain of the H4 time frame (at present). The H4 time frame has Dominance to the Short side and early rotational bias to the Long side. All the early upside rotation is taking place from M1 through H4. D1, W1 and MN1 are still driving Short.

So, these confluences now taking place showing upside bias must hold and remain intact in order for a Long side reversal potential to become seated Long side Dominance.

Draw now -28 pips. Target now 199.3 pips away from entry. RR now 7.11. Or, a Probability of 85.95%. This is why I use a Systematic approach to Trading. I know exactly where I stand at all times with respect to the Probability of the trade to reach BE or better.

Just to be clear. The System does not have embedded Harmonics. I wanted to do add it into the System but never got the chance to do it. I'm merely overlaying the current Harmonics status on top of the existing trade, so that New Traders not yet familiar with the more esoteric issues involving Harmonics can see how this is all taking place near the entry area of the current trade.

Yep. We’re fu(:Ed.

No problem. Like I said, EURAUD is in a technically good spot, and we may see some interest enter the market to the buy side, only time will tell.

All this talk about technical analysis really makes me go back to my original point. Technical analysis will not work alone long term since you absolutely need to have an understanding of the market you are trading beforehand.

It doesn't matter what indicators you use, what patterns you trade, harmonics, Fibonacci, etc etc. It's all irrelevant. The only thing that creates big moves in this market is when big players come in and buy or sell due to undervalue or overvalue of a particular exchange. This is why all technical analysis works, and doesn't work. If your technical based entry proves to be correct for a particular trade, you may think it's because of your analysis, but it is not. Your analysis only provided you with a good entry point (hopefully) the move itself happened because the market agreed with your sentiment either to buy or sell at a certain level, and that only happens when you are inline with the big players who move the market based on value, aka being on the right side of the market.

Right now, I am seriously considering ONLY looking for short positions across all FX pairs, both major and exotic. I have many reasons for this, main one being that the overall global confidence in Forex has been dropping dramatically over the years. Interest rates are lower than ever, and the state of the global economy is questionable.

Another interesting emerging market that we as FX traders need to understand and consider allocating funds to is the Crypto market. Crypto is having the exact opposite reaction as Forex. Consumer confidence in crypto is going up, and most major cryptocurrencies continue to out-value standard currencies heavily. Because of this, I am considering looking only for shorts in FX and long opportunities in crypto.

Look at pretty much any high time-frame chart on any major Forex pair and you will see the decline. Of course not all pairs are declining but if you combine them all together you will get an overall negative number. Then look at cryptos and you will see the opposite.

In short, if you really do not want to study too much data. Look for tops in Forex, and look for bottoms in Crypto. That may prove to be a successful bias long term, at least that's the way things look right now.

I'm not going to go into too much more detail about this as I could be wrong. If you really want to see If I'm right what you can do is build a chart somehow that takes the % gain of all FX pairs combined into one final percentage for each year since FX inception. Plot that on a chart, I am guessing there would be a decline overtime. Its just the nature of how our current form of currencies work. They devalue overtime due to interest, loans etc. Then do the same for crypto and you will see the opposite. So it makes sense logically to stay on the sell side of one market and the buy side of the other.

Another thing which I have mentioned before is, if there is a black swan event in FX it always is to the down side. For the most part, at least and especially in recent years. So it makes sense to want to be on the right side of that trade. A recent example of this would be the CHF crash.

There IS going to be another crash, there always is. This time it may be the entire market forcing us all to move to crypto. Just my 2 cents for anyone who chooses to listen.

Monthly Chart comparison. Do you see what I see?

6 Random FX pairs


4 Random Crypto USD crosses

Good question. Liquid.

So, by design, every "DR" output carries the same weight throughout the entire system. But, that's where the equal weighting begins and ends on system outputs. Everything else is given a different priority depending on the status of its output. Every System Module is different in the nature and meaning of its output. I'm looking for Synergies among that output.

As just one example of many - the Synergy and Relationships among all the System's Pi output. Pi means Completion. In this case, it is percentage of completeness of all Target (Trgt) output in the System. So, you will notice that all the StealthIndicators in the first three (3) System Modules each have Pi output showing the percentage of its projected Target output that has been completed (Pi%). This takes place in each Time Frame and the confluence of all Pi and their Relative Values (important) indicates either the potential for Market Continuance or Market Reversal.

And, that's just what Pi tells me. There are lots of other System Output Relationships that tell their own story about what the Market is doing now, or has the potential for doing at some point in the future.

One of the things I never got the chance to do with this System, was to implement the Panel's Historical Output into its Real-Time Output. That would have moved the System one step closer to the AI System that I really wanted to build. An Artificial Intelligence version of this System would include its Historical Output and Performance and then compare that to Current System Output.

Such a System would require that I build a Metadata Engine that would then become the driver of all trade decisions. That would be a more intelligence, conscious (dare I say it) aware System. So, the System you see in front of you is a first run Proof of Concept. A POC that works pretty darn well in its current form. It scares even me to think about what I could do with it in an AI version.

However, I'm happy with the POC for now. I'm getting to know its behavior, characteristics, traits, personality and its faults. That's a long learning process. One thing is absolutely certain. It does have a Personality that is ruthlessly consistent given a specific System Configuration.

The issue is one of Trust. But, I've been down that road before with other Trading Systems that I've built before, where I had to learn to trust it implicitly with my capital. As long a I can interpret with this System tells me accurately and as long as it is consistent in its Personality, then we can get along together and I can trust it. So far, she has been very consistent and I'm learning how to speak her language.

In a more advanced version of this System, I could translate her language to plain English and remove all the output you now see on screen by replacing it with text messages in real-time plain English:

"Buy Now."
"Sell Half Now."
"You Missed the First Exist. Hold for 1 Hour For The Next Exit."
"Close And Reverse Now."
"Prepare To Close And Reverse in 30 Minutes."
"Long Entry in 5 Minutes."
"Be patient, the market is now turning."
"Go Play Some Golf. This Trade Won't Be Finished for Another 7 Hours."
"If you sell now, there is an 87% probability for an additional 23 pips."
"You have 17 minutes remaining to enter this trade with an optimal signal."
"There is no way in hell you should consider trading this pair within the next 8 hours."
"Warning! Stay away from this pair for 2 days!"
"If you like making money, go Short now for 38 pips."
"System Health Is Good. Signal Strength is 91.25%."
"Harmonic Confluence Confirmed. Queuing Long in 10 Minutes."
"Momentum Scalp Now Available. Short Now For 17 Pips."
"Momentum Scalp Now Available. Short Now For 10 Pips."
"Momentum Scalp Now Unavailable. Please Wait 1 Hour For Next Opportunity."
"Good Morning JetTrader! Hope You Had A Good Night! GBPJPY Looks Rather Interesting. Care To See Why?"

There are a lot of things I could do with this System and have a ton of fun doing it.

But, that assumes (see your tag line) it only moves up and down. What if....the market actually moved in three (3) dimensions through six (6) different axes.

Shhhhh. Don't tell anybody. It'll be our little secret.

Ah, yes. That the Macro side of Technical Analysis and no doubt, large scale Model Funds use that kind of analysis or something similar. So, that is a view of Market Performance. But, there is yet another way to skin the cat. Take those same Pairs over the exact same Annual basis and calculate the Annual ATR. When you do, you will find that FX delivers Annual Rates of Return to the Non-Directional Trader in droves. The emphasis here is Non-Directional. So, you can trade both Long and Short, while still taking advantage of both Subordinate and Dominant influences in the market. That means, even in a downside market, there can still be strong upside influences that enable even greater returns than simply trading the "trend." In fact, the biggest net returns are sometimes found trading contrarian modes than trading "trends."

So, with a Pair that is going to move several thousand pips in a single year, there are plenty of high probability opportunities to be contrarian - as long as that bias is executed within a portion of the broader market structure that contains a sufficient amount of contrarian bias. The "devaluation" of a currency pair is different concept (entirely) than the non-directional Delta based Magnitude of that same currency pair. So, when you observe the market through the lens of Deltas instead of fundamental valuations, you see a new range of non-directional possibilities that can't be seen from purely fundamental framework. Hope that makes sense.


If one currency in the pairing suffers from the Swan, the other currency in the paring benefits from it. So, it really does depend on which side of the Swan you end up on. One of the reasons why I don't hold positions overnight in my live trading and why the SwapCycle Trade serves as my hedge against Swans of any kind, whatsoever. As long as the SwapCycle Trade is set-up during a time of market Inflection. I use the SwapCycle about 60% of the time in my production trading. Doing so removes the worry about Swans and Direction altogether. The market simply has to sustain a move (Inflection) in order to generate a profit. It is the antidote to worry.


Agreed, it does. This is why in a different thread I state that it is important to define what "Trade" actually means. A "trade" to one person may not carry the same meaning for another. Inherent in the term "Trade" is the reasonable expectation for a specific profit against the reasonable acceptance of a specific amount of risk. So, embedded in the very definition of the word "Trade" resides the potential for variable meaning depending on what the Trader is attempting to accomplish.

For example, I use a Revenue Model approach to both Trading and Trading System Development. That means, I've created a model for growth of capital over 'X' amount of time, through 'Y' number of trades and 'Z' lot sizing. Each trade always maintains the same Cost Basis (percent of total account balance used to execute the trade). As total account balance increases, lot size increases proportionately to a fixed Cost Basis level. Thus, if accuracy to a specified Target is maintained, I can expect capital growth to match the Revenue Model projections. Any losses are merely a set-back in the timeline of the Revenue Model - so I reach the Revenue Model goal (Capital Balance Projection) over a longer period of time when losses are sustain. However, the Revenue Model Targets remain the same - they never change.

This approach is what I call Revenue Model Trading. Its like applying a Business Plan to trading. In fact, it is the proforma side of the Business Plan. This approach (philosophy) forces a certain kind of trading that leads to higher probability and lower risk trades. It also forces the Research, Development and Engineering of a certain kind of Indicator which leads to the development of a certain kind of Trading System.

In total, I end up with a Trading System that was Revenue Model inspired and designed specifically to meet the goals of that Revenue Model. In other words, the use of Purpose Built Indicators and a Purpose Built System. This provides guidance in all things related to Trading and an overall structural approach that keeps revenues flowing and capital growing - daily.

This is much different than trading by the seat of my pants. This is a highly structured business style approach to Trading. Everything I do, is all about growing capital on schedule as best I can. That keeps me from floundering and bouncing from focus to focus with no real central focus at all. The central focus is to grow capital every single day, according to the Minimum Revenue Requirement of the Model. It is a Model for Capital Growth, so it will always be 100% accurate. The trading will never be 100%. However, the Model keeps me focused and on track.

So, yes, I agree. Being on the right side of the trade is very important. Equally as important is making sure to define what "The Trade" actually means. This becomes critical for knowing whether or not capital is truly growing, or whether the wheels are spinning 2 steps forward followed by 3 steps backwards. Being on the right side of the trade for me means targeting the highest density probability for the existence of Future Price.

I can't trade the Now Price. And, I can't trade the Past Price. I can only trade into a density of probabilities of the Future Price. To do this, I need tools that estimate where the greatest density probabilities exist along the Y-axis of Future Price.



The great equalizer to the Black Swan is a well placed SwapCycle and a broker with reliable execution. I'll try to do some more SwapCycle Trades to show what I mean later. When I'm in a SwapCycle, go to bed at night actually praying for a Black Swan. I love Swans of any color. Black, blue, red, yellow, purpose, orange - any Swan is perfect for the SwapCycle as long as real market Inflection is present. It is near zero loss trading when set-up right.

Update: For you Harmonic Traders



"B" in the XABCD Harmonic has just shifted up slightly.

Draw -12. Target 199. RR 16.6. Probability now 93.96%. (These are maximum achieved trade performance numbers not seen on the panel. They will vary as the market varies in price.)