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How to avoid stopp loss...anyone doing that? 52 replies

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Nat Gas anyone?

  • #341
  • Feb 9, 2020 10:47am Feb 9, 2020 10:47am
Quoting pooh123
Hi Don, for natural gas, why don't you base your analysis on real volume of futures NG but instead on tick volume of CFD ?
Nat Gas is not one of the markets I actually trade in live trading. I was asked (9 months ago) by the creators of this forum (along with Metals Mine and Crypto Currency) to help out and start posting relevant trades in this forum. I mentioned that, unlike metals or Forex, I would not be trading these live, and they agreed that the point was to get things moving in the forum and that demo trades would be acceptable.

So I just "practice my skills" in this area and help out by regularly posting on this thread...How do you think I'm doing?
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  • #342
  • Feb 10, 2020 10:16am Feb 10, 2020 10:16am
NG (continuous contract) looks like it's heading towards 1,6x with current weather models.
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #343
  • Edited 3:29am Feb 11, 2020 2:05am | Edited 3:29am
NATGAS take;

I expected this stop haunt and planned for it with a wider stop! but, heck, I didn't anticipate this deep drive down! Coronavirus effect? I don't know! But, my stop is my line of defense, I shall honor it when called, no matter what I think! lol

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  • #344
  • Feb 11, 2020 2:08am Feb 11, 2020 2:08am
Quoting danasa
NATGAS take; I expect this stop haunt and planned for it with a wider stop! but, heck, I didn't anticipate this deep drive down! Coronavirus effect? I don't know! But, my stop is my line of defense, I shall honor it when called, no matter what I think! lol {image}
That’s noble of you to honor it gracefully.

i stopped trading it for a while a few days back. As soon as I got minor profits of the buy dips I stayed away....it’s a little too erratic at the moment.
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #345
  • Feb 11, 2020 2:50am Feb 11, 2020 2:50am
Quoting danasa
NATGAS take; I expect this stop haunt and planned for it with a wider stop! but, heck, I didn't anticipate this deep drive down! Coronavirus effect? I don't know! But, my stop is my line of defense, I shall honor it when called, no matter what I think! lol {image}
Natural Gas is all about Supply and Demand last weather forecasts are expecting warmer temperatures -> less storage deficit.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #346
  • Feb 11, 2020 3:53am Feb 11, 2020 3:53am
A welcome development, finally some ordered price structure, for trade management and chart navigation... a 15 Minute (M15) Trading Range is building. The break out of this range will tell a clearer story...
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  • #347
  • Feb 11, 2020 1:36pm Feb 11, 2020 1:36pm
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #348
  • Feb 12, 2020 8:42am Feb 12, 2020 8:42am
It still appears as though "hope springs eternal". Price is starting to fill in the gap over the week end. But there is still another large and looming gap from last week above the current price that will be challenging to fill in also.
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  • #349
  • Feb 12, 2020 8:59am Feb 12, 2020 8:59am
Quoting DonPato
It still appears as though "hope springs eternal". Price is starting to fill in the gap over the week end. But there is still another large and looming gap from last week above the current price that will be challenging to fill in also. {image}
I'm eyeing 2.3 dollars, up to 2.8 dollars.

I'll keep buying dips as we make new lows
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #350
  • Feb 12, 2020 9:20am Feb 12, 2020 9:20am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I'm eyeing 2.3 dollars, up to 2.8 dollars. I'll keep buying dips as we make new lows
I'm pretty sure we're nearing a bottom here, but each time I think its done...another push through breaks down into a new even lower range.
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  • #351
  • Feb 12, 2020 1:57pm Feb 12, 2020 1:57pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I'm eyeing 2.3 dollars, up to 2.8 dollars. I'll keep buying dips as we make new lows
I have been waiting on lower temperatures, but it's really never come. Why do you think it will appreciate?
  • #352
  • Feb 12, 2020 3:08pm Feb 12, 2020 3:08pm
Quoting vpn
{quote} I have been waiting on lower temperatures, but it's really never come. Why do you think it will appreciate?
Market participant are violently shorts on the money managers sides, while long producers are starting to buy
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #353
  • Feb 12, 2020 6:52pm Feb 12, 2020 6:52pm
Today's Price Action did fill in the gap from the week end, so there's THAT!...I would feel a great deal more confident if price continued rising from here and filled in the gap from last week as well.
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  • #354
  • Feb 13, 2020 3:50am Feb 13, 2020 3:50am
Quoting DonPato
Today's Price Action did fill in the gap from the week end, so there's THAT!...I would feel a great deal more confident if price continued rising from here and filled in the gap from last week as well. {image}
Yep, hope springs eternal indeed, I practically called that one kill trade already in all expectation that my stop be triggered. The stop haunt(intentional or not) was a deeper drive than anticipated!
I came back to see the next day it broke the M15 Trading range and got back into mother(Pinbar) Trading range, missed my stop level by a few pips! Current expectation? = Neutral. The market will do anything it wants to do, lets see how it goes. By the way, crude oil building a beautiful Trading range as we speak, prep for up move I guess.
  • #355
  • Feb 13, 2020 8:00am Feb 13, 2020 8:00am
Longing entry 1.84

Gl everyone gas storage soon
rennstimp
  • #356
  • Feb 14, 2020 3:24am Feb 14, 2020 3:24am
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #357
  • Feb 16, 2020 6:56pm Feb 16, 2020 6:56pm
Natural gas is finally showing some signs of life. A gap up at the open today.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #358
  • Feb 17, 2020 11:05am Feb 17, 2020 11:05am
For the first time since I originally entered this trade, it is positive!! This has really tested my patience. Order flow at the current price is showing lots of buying but very little movement (absorption?) If price can maintain this level when markets open tomorrow, there may be a real shot at closing the four week long gap overhead.
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  • #359
  • Feb 18, 2020 11:31am Feb 18, 2020 11:31am
Buyers are now starting to challenge the gap of 4 weeks ago. And as anticipated, sellers are active inside this gap. NOW the battle begins. Is there enough buying interest at this level to overcome the selling? I will watch it one candle at a time to try and understand what develops.
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  • #360
  • Feb 18, 2020 1:56pm Feb 18, 2020 1:56pm
Quoting DonPato
Buyers are now starting to challenge the gap of 4 weeks ago. And as anticipated, sellers are active inside this gap. NOW the battle begins. Is there enough buying interest at this level to overcome the selling? I will watch it one candle at a time to try and understand what develops. {image}
Blizzards sweeping through the Midwest have also helped NatGas off of recent lows.

  1. Coldest air of the season is moving into the Midwest and the Northeast
  2. Blizzard conditions in Midwest, winter weather alerts from Oklahoma to Maine ahead of Arctic blast

It's finally starting to show some signs of life. Lots of volume today too.

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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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