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  • #6,321
  • Feb 7, 2020 5:45pm Feb 7, 2020 5:45pm
Quoting mga35
China consumes around 13.4% of world oil. Don't expect prices to go down further Still Risk off until Chinese market is open.
I read an article today making a good case for a Chinese stimulus to combat the economic impact of the virus. If they go through with it, oil would be a major beneficiary.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #6,322
  • Feb 7, 2020 8:46pm Feb 7, 2020 8:46pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I read an article today making a good case for a Chinese stimulus to combat the economic impact of the virus. If they go through with it, oil would be a major beneficiary.

Things will gettin better, China choose to not publish the export import January data and will compile it with February data. This means, they avoid short sellers speculant in their stocks market. Good move, but kinda rigged. Well thats how the things done in fully managed society (a.k.a capitalism under communist management).

They did everything they can and now seems they also managed to isolate the virus in Wuhan only.

Btw, IMHO the key is Russia willingness to participate in cut. GCC countries in pressure now as they need arround $80 oil price to be on green, meanwhile Russia only need $42 to stay on green. This is why Russia wait, they hv a good +ve in negotiation, probably need something to trade under the table. But they will agree to cut too I guess.

Keep tracking the Dynamic in China virus, plus potential international outbreak (seems to be unlikely), but who knows, it could escalated faster than we think.

Next week will be the key for oil.
Trade what you think and see
  • #6,323
  • Feb 10, 2020 9:47am Feb 10, 2020 9:47am
My thoughts on this pair are as follows,


Considering the fact that we did gap down on the weekly open, price failed to break below the 04/02/2020 low at 49.28, as such the subsequent gap also got closed speedily, the last line in the sand or objective for further bullish continuation is an H1 close above the 51.40 handle,

There are a couple of longer term momentum indicators that are beginning to point up, so with that said this weeks approach may be a little more cautious from the onset,

This outlook becomes invalidated if we break that low and continue along the path of making lower lows and lower highs on the H1.....


Just a though......
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #6,324
  • Feb 10, 2020 10:47am Feb 10, 2020 10:47am
i think this level will eventually get cracked and a significant move south will follow, but for now its being well defended. think i would prefer to take shorts for now as i don't want to be caught long when the bottom falls out
  • #6,325
  • Feb 10, 2020 12:11pm Feb 10, 2020 12:11pm
Too much uncertainties, staying out until there is a clear signal.
  • #6,326
  • Feb 10, 2020 12:32pm Feb 10, 2020 12:32pm
Quoting auricforecas
Observing market closely... I will decide by the end of the next week the latst, when/if entering the WTI market before the end of FEB... Have to see how this settles in... The seasonality and this "situation" that we have now indicates (strongly) to be on the SOUTH side but remember, the seasonality is usually at inflection point in (middle) of FEB... so have to be careful since we are entering that next week and then even 1-2weeks after might make time to reverse Also will have more that about the "health" situation
Nice, according to "program", for now.. But the LANDING and TAKEOFF have to be planed/executed very precisely... AFTER this week is over... Only the specially skilled pilots will be able to trade around the TURN! If one is not among them... I would suggest to wait for FEB to be over before entering any longer-term positions since we are in the inflection point month, by seasonality at least.. Current situation still blows wind in the still current south trend but that can change after, specially after this week and even more in the weeks that follows!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6,327
  • Feb 10, 2020 8:14pm Feb 10, 2020 8:14pm
Quoting MzansiObi
My thoughts on this pair are as follows, Considering the fact that we did gap down on the weekly open, price failed to break below the 04/02/2020 low at 49.28, as such the subsequent gap also got closed speedily, the last line in the sand or objective for further bullish continuation is an H1 close above the 51.40 handle, There are a couple of longer term momentum indicators that are beginning to point up, so with that said this weeks approach may be a little more cautious from the onset, This outlook becomes invalidated if we break that low and...
Its popped back up and effortlessly so to say the least, all that bearish sentiment throughout the day got erased in a short space of time, thats not to say that the bears a done for, however with momentum suggesting that the Bulls are coming in or shorts closing out and taking some profits from these extremes, we cannot rule out a breakout higher for some correction on the longer time frame before a continued move south, as such the immediate hurdle for bears has become clear, with that said its rallied enough for me to look to get short on it again

A: Crossover indicating bearish continuation confirmation.
B: Retest of the entry line following the confirmatory crossover
C: Crossover still intact as such reentry on retest of the entry line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XTIUSDH1_LI.jpg Size: 857 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #6,328
  • Feb 11, 2020 5:14am Feb 11, 2020 5:14am
Here's the culprit for resistance at 50.20 area, measured from last low.

I still think we will go upside over 51

Good upside targets poss 54

Jump ship below 50
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 16 KB
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #6,329
  • Feb 11, 2020 9:32am Feb 11, 2020 9:32am
Doesn’t look like it will break north
  • #6,330
  • Feb 11, 2020 12:19pm Feb 11, 2020 12:19pm
Quoting Kwame Freder
Doesn’t look like it will break north
When? Now or within 2-3weeks?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6,331
  • Feb 11, 2020 3:18pm Feb 11, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} When? Now or within 2-3weeks?
Never!
  • #6,332
  • Feb 11, 2020 4:15pm Feb 11, 2020 4:15pm
Quoting mga35
{quote} Never!
You imply it reached its peak aka never going north as UP (again)?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6,333
  • Feb 11, 2020 4:36pm Feb 11, 2020 4:36pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} You imply it reached its peak aka never going north as UP (again)?
For 2020, I would say 49 is its bottom. But you never know
  • #6,334
  • Edited Feb 12, 2020 11:06am Feb 11, 2020 4:46pm | Edited Feb 12, 2020 11:06am
Quoting mga35
{quote} For 2020, I would say 49 is its bottom. But you never know
Bottom as of lowest as... going up (soon)? Why you said never then, when a guy said it might go NORTH (UP)?

Quoting Kwame Freder
Doesn’t look like it will break north
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} When? Now or within 2-3weeks?
Quoting mga35
{quote} Never!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #6,335
  • Feb 11, 2020 5:30pm Feb 11, 2020 5:30pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Bottom as of lowest as... going up (soon)? Why you said never than, when a guy said it might go NORTH (UP)? {quote} {quote} {quote}
my bad, I thought u said South (Down)
Waiting for OPEC report + Crude oil inventory tomorrow to open a position.
  • #6,336
  • Feb 11, 2020 6:02pm Feb 11, 2020 6:02pm
Quoting mga35
{quote} my bad, I thought u said South (Down) Waiting for OPEC report + Crude oil inventory tomorrow to open a position.
Smart move mga35.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #6,337
  • Feb 12, 2020 12:19am Feb 12, 2020 12:19am
Any Full time day traders here that trade oil London / usa sessions? As in enter and exit within the session hours?

All about perspective. I have made mistakes trying to trade intraday from macro standpoints, recently. Perspective for day trading rectified.

London Session hoping for a nice LONG from 50-50.30 zone to 51.48 (*CL futures prices). That would be brilliant. Obviously need to see price exhaust there first at london.
Anyone else thinking this?
  • #6,338
  • Feb 12, 2020 2:52am Feb 12, 2020 2:52am
Quoting sponge
Here's the culprit for resistance at 50.20 area, measured from last low. I still think we will go upside over 51 Good upside targets poss 54 Jump ship below 50 {image}
51 now being tested atm, I think it's bullish a ready for a break, initial upside targets 51.69/52.30

resistance 51.20 could break with news anticipation

54 still on the cards imo

Bearish and more sideways below 50.81

Edit
Barcharts monthly chart showing volume
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 42 KB
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #6,339
  • Feb 12, 2020 6:14am Feb 12, 2020 6:14am
OPEC lowers 2020 global oil demand growth outlook by 230,000 bpd due to coronavirus
12 February 2020, 14:12

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its forecast for 2020 global oil demand for its crude oil by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 29.3 million (bpd), the organization's latest monthly report showed on Thursday.
OPEC also cut the 2020 oil demand growth outlook by 230,000 bpd to 0.99 million bpd due to the coronavirus outbreak's impact on the Chinese demand. "The coronavirus outbreak adds to uncertainties for the oil market in 2020," OPEC said in its publication and noted that they need "continuous monitoring."
WTI reaction
The barrel of West Texas Intermediate edged lower from its daily highs slightly with the initial reaction and was last seen trading at $50.70, up 1.55% on the day.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #6,340
  • Feb 12, 2020 8:09am Feb 12, 2020 8:09am
Perfect long entry there into support at 50.70.
so bullish environment. Id say 51.44 be squeezed tonight. Shouldve taken half at 51 and let this ride.
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