The Swamp | Page 2566 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #51,301
  • Feb 9, 2020 11:38am Feb 9, 2020 11:38am
Quoting DMA Trader
hard to trust the numbers i understand there are 400M in lock down from 1.4 billion people First the number of being lock down in towns is immense So 2 points 1 - data with serious cases and deaths is not true. and things are very dangerous. 2 - if data is true things would not be so serious so you shut down cities because you cannot say on a 800 deaths from 400 million things are looking terrible in a month since it means 0.0002%
this week will be very important

Markets should drop if there is a very serious condition and things aggravate:

Tomorrow some of the most important jobs are being back to work (food industry for example)
Also interesting Tesla factory in Shanghai is opening tomorrow - gov providing assistance
So if things don't go into bigger problems , I think it should be seen as positive.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #51,302
  • Feb 9, 2020 11:46am Feb 9, 2020 11:46am
Quoting DMA Trader
morning been super busy today missed shorting EU, wrong om Crude and USD/CAD - anyway transport in Europe same country's Italy France and all over going really bad. so situation persist. also consumers spend less. retail should have some bad data coming in. will watch hope everyone is ok
my transport company in Europe had a terrible week. this situation persist we will see it in numbers from Eur area
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #51,303
  • Feb 9, 2020 12:48pm Feb 9, 2020 12:48pm
Quoting wasntme
{quote} where are you getting a 1/3...the spanish flu was only between 10 and 20% ill start panicking if corona starts approaching the spanish flus 10% mortality rate
I didn't mention the Spanish flu. I didnt mention Aids or Asian flu either. So it has nothing to do with my post. The only outcome is the corona dead or the healed. The infected are not yet healed, or dead. So the infected have a unknown outcome atm. 1/3 was a rough approx # dead verse healed. If you want to get precise its 27.25%. I didnt realise it was exame day. The point is the heal rate has not improved much. 27% plus is not a good thing. We are only talking about less than 40k cases. What happens to the rate at 100k, or 100 million. A point where medical resources are non existent. Atm there is no vaccine or cure. So the medical workers are being exposed and dying.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,304
  • Feb 9, 2020 12:50pm Feb 9, 2020 12:50pm
Quoting wasntme
{quote} where are you getting a 1/3...the spanish flu was only between 10 and 20% ill start panicking if corona starts approaching the spanish flus 10% mortality rate
its 2.7 times more deadly if that helps. The infected are sick. The flu has not yet run its course until they are well or dead. There is no in between
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,305
  • Feb 9, 2020 12:55pm Feb 9, 2020 12:55pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} i disagree, the vitality rate is 815 / (815 + 2990) = 0.214 This is about 1 in 5. Earlier this was 1 in 3. Also before it doubled in 4 days. in the past 6 days it did not double yet. But i agree that the information we receive might not be true. By the time we receive the real number might be millions in which case there may be a world wide panic/food rush.
2990 X .2726= 816.27 or 27.26%
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,306
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:00pm Feb 9, 2020 1:00pm
death curve has not wavered, a constant rise.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 29 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,307
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:05pm Feb 9, 2020 1:05pm
need the number to be below 1. atm its still above. indicating growth.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 71 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,308
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:13pm Feb 9, 2020 1:13pm
per day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 37 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,309
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:21pm Feb 9, 2020 1:21pm
fyi
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 611 KB
  • #51,310
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:21pm Feb 9, 2020 1:21pm
89 dead yesterday. Since start, the highest total day. The trend is still up. I hope it stops, the evidence is not showing that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 94 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,311
  • Feb 9, 2020 1:28pm Feb 9, 2020 1:28pm
Quoting Boulder
fyi {image}
potentially systemic to the world economy.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,312
  • Edited 1:53pm Feb 9, 2020 1:42pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 2990 X .2726= 816.27 or 27.26%
edit:nm, 27% is about right.

100% = 1/1 = 855 / (855 + 0)
50% = 1/2 = 855 / (855 + 855)
33% = 1/3 = 855 / (855 + 1710)
25% = 1/4 = 855 / (855 + 2565)
20% = 1/5 = 855 / (855 + 3420)
  • #51,313
  • Feb 9, 2020 3:54pm Feb 9, 2020 3:54pm
Cable monthly weekly, very strong trend down since 2006-7 reinstated when fell thru falling wedge mid 2014-15 following the rejection of utl of wedge mid 2013-14 potential invertedH&S building rh shoulder has target 1 2500ish problem to wait for neckline attack pa will be well above the monthly upper falling tl targeting 1 3750 ish if pull back to retest BO targeting 1 3000 then another attack of month falling tl could take some months for H&S to form rs, another few months to do breach then retest, then again to attack neckline if breaks trend reversal in play approx Novemebr, right now she is has been in very strong down trend shorts only until monthly or weekly show bear weakness, many green pip to all this week, reversal of eu possible aka bounce should help gold bears, have already posted gold potential !!
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #51,314
  • Feb 9, 2020 4:44pm Feb 9, 2020 4:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} that 0947 close may gap below. That could open a wtf gate.. be more careful than usual..
gap is below 0947..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,315
  • Feb 9, 2020 4:47pm Feb 9, 2020 4:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
I see the reasons for posting the possible bounce. The ones posted and the ones I posted earlier. Beware of this, last weeks lc is on the edge of a new lower week close. 1.09477 is slightly above last years 1.09476. A gap open below 1.09476, may be as good as a close below. If so dont fight the tape. More so if a Lc day closes below 1.0903 with a new low. The usd and the eu are beyond my month numbers. Most often that makes them overextended. Overextended dont mean they wont stagnate in a small range. Before continuing the eu drop. Pa may...
more short evidence to me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,316
  • Edited 5:32pm Feb 9, 2020 5:19pm | Edited 5:32pm
Pa is overextended short wise. But yet has broken 0947 and now opened below the tl. It can remain overextended longer than most can hold longs. It could just test the tl in the 095x area. 095x may become R. In a strong move that may be all longs get. The 5 min is at 0959, if it can't break that, a bounce is in trouble.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 48 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,317
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:22pm Feb 9, 2020 5:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} gap is below 0947..
I have 0940 as marker, it is H&S neckline break target, ,give or take few pips, last week was a nice candle, albeit shaved, I think possible bounce / retrace, but downtrend would still be in tact 0940 below is short with sl above last weeks low, could long a possible retrace sl below last weeks low, wouldnt hurt to let market show its intention, gold is inverse (oddly) but it is, eu up will push gold down and vice versa, market could surprise and co relate time will tell!!
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #51,318
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:34pm Feb 9, 2020 5:34pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} I have 0940 as marker, it is H&S neckline break target, ,give or take few pips, last week was a nice candle, albeit shaved, I think possible bounce / retrace, but downtrend would still be in tact 0940 below is short with sl above last weeks low, could long a possible retrace sl below last weeks low, wouldnt hurt to let market show its intention, gold is inverse (oddly) but it is, eu up will push gold down and vice versa, market could surprise and co relate time will tell!!
0947x is the lowest week lc.. the gap open was below it today. my tl is a little above yours. 095x atm.. Damned if you do, damned if u dont. A r/r long from the support is ok. but one cant hold if it loses support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,319
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:35pm Feb 9, 2020 5:35pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} I have 0940 as marker, it is H&S neckline break target, ,give or take few pips, last week was a nice candle, albeit shaved, I think possible bounce / retrace, but downtrend would still be in tact 0940 below is short with sl above last weeks low, could long a possible retrace sl below last weeks low, wouldnt hurt to let market show its intention, gold is inverse (oddly) but it is, eu up will push gold down and vice versa, market could surprise and co relate time will tell!!
entered short gold 1575 93 if I can sl above 38.2 fib
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #51,320
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:37pm Feb 9, 2020 5:37pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} entered short gold 1575 93 if I can sl above 38.2 fib
also adding short au nu if can get below fridays low sl will be above there
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
48 traders viewing now, 2 are registered:
Ahamedkarim
,