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The Swamp

  • #51,281
  • Feb 8, 2020 10:33am Feb 8, 2020 10:33am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I meant aggressive trading...just last two days I have been pounding EurUsd shorts.. I will slow down a few days for sure.. {image}
Yeah, I'm on auto sell at different levels.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,282
  • Feb 8, 2020 10:44am Feb 8, 2020 10:44am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah, I'm on auto sell at different levels.
I may set buy and sell EurUsd both.. . or short EurUsd and short swiss at the same time..I will think about it how to proceed this trading for next a few days ....
take advantage of the retrace while reloading my core positions....
  • #51,283
  • Feb 8, 2020 10:51am Feb 8, 2020 10:51am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I may set buy and sell EurUsd both.. . or short EurUsd and short swiss at the same time..I will think about it how to proceed this trading for next a few days .... take advantage of the retrace while reloading my core positions....
that 0947 close may gap below. That could open a wtf gate.. be more careful than usual..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,284
  • Feb 8, 2020 11:30am Feb 8, 2020 11:30am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I may set buy and sell EurUsd both.. . or short EurUsd and short swiss at the same time..I will think about it how to proceed this trading for next a few days .... take advantage of the retrace while reloading my core positions....
Inverted H&S.

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  • #51,285
  • Feb 8, 2020 11:46am Feb 8, 2020 11:46am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} Inverted H&S. {image}
eur could go up against chf.

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  • #51,286
  • Feb 8, 2020 12:33pm Feb 8, 2020 12:33pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} Inverted H&S. {image}
Thanks for your chart... my core positions are long Swiss... in case I short , I actually did short Swiss last Friday from 9743 to 9771 as hedge.. I will close them in a couple of days . reload longs to ride up...
  • #51,287
  • Edited 2:10pm Feb 8, 2020 1:55pm | Edited 2:10pm
Quoting longshot_nl
for GU i favor this butterfly. point B is at wrong level but rest is ok so it might work anyway. {image}
looking to sell bounce on this one though.
bounce could go to 3074. it has the butterly as a target
  • #51,288
  • Edited 9:03pm Feb 8, 2020 8:46pm | Edited 9:03pm
if u want to trade with swap. look for reasons to take these trades. If you want to put the odds in your favor. Trade these as pa and trend dictate in the direction of the best swap. https://forexop.com/?s=eursgd
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,289
  • Feb 8, 2020 11:59pm Feb 8, 2020 11:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
if u want to trade with swap. look for reasons to take these trades. If you want to put the odds in your favor. Trade these as pa and trend dictate in the direction of the best swap. https://forexop.com/?s=eursgd {image}
...Thanks a lot Gator...meaning the usd/chf is the best to carry trade? with 1.34%...?
The Chonchy
  • #51,290
  • Feb 9, 2020 2:08am Feb 9, 2020 2:08am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} I have a libre pattern ending up on 0926. The harmonics there i don't trust except the shark. The purple butterfly you refer to has a broken right wing. The retrace in the wing is bigger then BC. This is what the libre pattern looks like: {image} In the same area there is this shark. Cons: there is no AB projection. Pro's: levels are ok and there is a 161.8 reciprocal and nice shape Shark entry: 0921 (+ spread) {image} I have no levels lower then this. If either works 1.13 might well happen. Even though our friends over here are bearish,...
libra pattern good. my purple pattern works too I use different parameters

here is more confluence on the daily (blue bat) and 1h crab

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possibilities for pa to go lower:

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I favor green pattern on the weekly but pa could tag both and take off with oomph
if these last two work out then 1.15 and 1.17 are on the table.
  • #51,291
  • Edited 5:09am Feb 9, 2020 4:09am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting Lenova
{quote} libra pattern good. my purple pattern works too I use different parameters here is more confluence on the daily (blue bat) and 1h crab {image} {image} possibilities for pa to go lower: {image} I favor green pattern on the weekly but pa could tag both and take off with oomph if these last two work out then 1.15 and 1.17 are on the table.
I think you may be right.
This is called a 'nen star'.
it has no reciprocal but all levels are correct.

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zooming out to weekly, its close to the 78.6 fib. (0815)
it might become point B of a butterfly.
i like it when there is a reason for a pattern.
It gives the opportunity to get really long term positions.

the next fib down (88.6 @ 0619) would be more bullish because it could make a bearish gartley @ 3211 or even a bat @ 5384.
while the butterfly would stay below 2555

(edit: is not written in stone, just for reasoning.)
  • #51,292
  • Edited 5:12am Feb 9, 2020 4:49am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} I think you may be right. This is called a 'nen star'. it has no reciprocal but all levels are correct. {image} zooming out to weekly, its close to the 78.6 fib. (0815) it might become point B of a butterfly. i like it when there is a reason for a pattern. It gives the opportunity to get really long term positions. the next fib down (88.6 @ 0619) would be more bullish because it could make a bearish gartley @ 3211 or even a bat @ 5384. while the butterfly would stay below 2555
i think i have figured it out. maybe

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  • #51,293
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:32am Feb 9, 2020 5:32am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} i think i have figured it out. maybe {image}
my trading plan for the next year if 0815 folds.
The levels are not without reason. dont want to explain though.

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  • #51,294
  • Feb 9, 2020 5:45am Feb 9, 2020 5:45am
@longshot nl

yes it is a nenstar

green weekly pattern is alternate shark.

yes we see eye to eye now. Happy trading!
  • #51,295
  • Feb 9, 2020 9:28am Feb 9, 2020 9:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since many were treated, yet 1/3 died. it appears worse than bubonic so far. Let's hope they can stop it. And the 1/3 fatality rate decreases. {image}
Fatality rate is still about 1/3. (roughly 36%) of known cases... Death rate has not decreased yet. Medical intervention has not shown improvement yet, in the numbers. Who knows if the numbers are real. Some of the sick may be unable to seek medical attention. Unknown death cases may be above 36%. I hope they can get a handle on this soon.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,296
  • Edited 9:56am Feb 9, 2020 9:31am | Edited 9:56am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} ...Thanks a lot Gator...meaning the usd/chf is the best to carry trade? with 1.34%...?
you can add the negative and positive together. That is the swap spread. the wider may be the better to trade off s/r if the trend concurs the same direction.

you may want to see what your broker charges. But in general you want the entire market on your side.


Example, chf is paying X for longs, and negative X for shorts. That spread is the difference in holding a long verse a short. The bigger the spread increases your chances if in trend direction. It's much harder to hold a usd/chf short over time than a usd/chf long. So when it retraces lower. Try to find a place to enter long. In several places with wide entries (never overleveraged) Find these gems.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,297
  • Edited 10:03am Feb 9, 2020 9:52am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} you can add the negative and positive together. That is the swap spread. the wider may be the better to trade off s/r if the trend concurs the same direction. you may want to see what your broker charges. But in general you want the entire market on your side. Example, chf is paying X for longs, and negative X for shorts. That spread is the difference in holding a long verse a short. The bigger the spread increases your chances if in trend direction. It's much harder to hold a chf short over time than a chf long. So when it retraces lower....
1.0925 usd/chf in the next few years (months ?) at current rates looks viable. Wild card is Mnuchin labeling Swiss as a currency manipulator. Next hurdle is to close a week above .9999 and month 1.0140
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #51,298
  • Feb 9, 2020 10:25am Feb 9, 2020 10:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Fatality rate is still about 1/3. (roughly 36%) of known cases... Death rate has not decreased yet. Medical intervention has not shown improvement yet, in the numbers. Who knows if the numbers are real. Some of the sick may be unable to seek medical attention. Unknown death cases may be above 36%. I hope they can get a handle on this soon. {image}

where are you getting a 1/3...the spanish flu was only between 10 and 20%

ill start panicking if corona starts approaching the spanish flus 10% mortality rate
buy the rumor,sell the news
  • #51,299
  • Feb 9, 2020 11:06am Feb 9, 2020 11:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Fatality rate is still about 1/3. (roughly 36%) of known cases... Death rate has not decreased yet. Medical intervention has not shown improvement yet, in the numbers. Who knows if the numbers are real. Some of the sick may be unable to seek medical attention. Unknown death cases may be above 36%. I hope they can get a handle on this soon. {image}
i disagree, the vitality rate is 815 / (815 + 2990) = 0.214
This is about 1 in 5. Earlier this was 1 in 3.

Also before it doubled in 4 days. in the past 6 days it did not double yet.

But i agree that the information we receive might not be true.
By the time we receive the real number might be millions in which case there may be a world wide panic/food rush.
  • #51,300
  • Feb 9, 2020 11:32am Feb 9, 2020 11:32am
hard to trust the numbers
i understand there are 400M in lock down from 1.4 billion people
First the number of being lock down in towns is immense

So 2 points

1 - data with serious cases and deaths is not true. and things are very dangerous.
2 - if data is true things would not be so serious so you shut down cities because you cannot say on a 800 deaths from 400 million things are looking terrible in a month since it means 0.0002%
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
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