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Time and Price Forecasting

  • #1,721
  • Feb 7, 2020 11:30am Feb 7, 2020 11:30am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} vik11, I repost what I have already posted about "manual drawing" : Manual drawing is NOT "tedious" . It generates a learning process. With manual drawing you will learn the how and why the methodology works. Do not forget that Gann has created his tools and developped his methodology at a time when him and his customers had no computer, not even a pocket calculator. Respect and understand that. With manual drawing you will understand that the methodology as a whole is not automatable. But you will understand better what is worth...
Pb, appreciate much if you elaborate more on Gann Squaring Process. TY
Know what you trade
  • #1,722
  • Feb 7, 2020 11:41am Feb 7, 2020 11:41am
Quoting Swede
{quote} That is a really fine post Parisboy....much appreciated and all your posts are valuable!
Thank you Swede for your nice words !

After you have all mastered the SQUARING PROCESS, I will demonstrate to you that " GANN SQUARES" are just a specific case of the LAW OF VIBRATION.

Look at vik11 chart

Price can fluctuate eternally within the same Range , going back and forth within that Range (whatever the Range)
Time NEVER goes back, hence your Time axis, whatever the Time Unit you use , ALWAYS expands on the right.

Consequence your original "Square" is woved to change itself into a quadrilater
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  • #1,723
  • Feb 7, 2020 11:49am Feb 7, 2020 11:49am
Applying the Squaring Process (when you have understood the basics ) in a real Trading environment

Here using TradingView and its Trend Angle tool
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  • #1,724
  • Feb 7, 2020 11:50am Feb 7, 2020 11:50am
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  • #1,725
  • Feb 7, 2020 11:50am Feb 7, 2020 11:50am
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  • #1,726
  • Feb 7, 2020 11:53am Feb 7, 2020 11:53am
Speaking of manual drawing....is anyone using Time Conversion Bars? That is a staple of Jenkins on the higher timeframe.

We all watched Euro fall off the map this week and many profitable trades were taken short....and a ton of effort was put in to try to catch the moves from one day to the next.....But here is a chart the proves the soundness of his methods....SHORT ENTRY WAS ESTABLISHED LAST FRIDAY FOR THIS WEEK...WHERE TO ENTER THAT IS...almost to the penny where you could expect to take this thing short again.

All it takes is a few minuets to do some manual drawing....follow the technique from number 1
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  • #1,727
  • Feb 7, 2020 11:54am Feb 7, 2020 11:54am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Pb, appreciate much if you elaborate more on Gann Squaring Process. TY
Food for thoughts

Self-Explaining Charts : Theory
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  • #1,728
  • Feb 7, 2020 11:57am Feb 7, 2020 11:57am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Pb, appreciate much if you elaborate more on Gann Squaring Process. TY
Food for thoughts

Self-Explaining Charts : Practicing in Real Life
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  • #1,729
  • Feb 7, 2020 12:23pm Feb 7, 2020 12:23pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} vik11, I repost what I have already posted about "manual drawing" : Manual drawing is NOT "tedious" . It generates a learning process. With manual drawing you will learn the how and why the methodology works. Do not forget that Gann has created his tools and developped his methodology at a time when him and his customers had no computer, not even a pocket calculator. Respect and understand that. With manual drawing you will understand that the methodology as a whole is not automatable. But you will understand better what is worth...
I understand fully what you are saying, parisboy, and I appreciate you saying it to me (and anyone else who reads your post) I have started preparing charts manually and know that it will, as you imply, take my trading to another level. Thank you.
  • #1,730
  • Feb 7, 2020 12:38pm Feb 7, 2020 12:38pm
Quoting vik11
{quote} I understand fully what you are saying, parisboy, and I appreciate you saying it to me (and anyone else who reads your post) I have started preparing charts manually and know that it will, as you imply, take my trading to another level. Thank you.
In fact there is a confusion by using the word " automation" or "automatization"

You can easily automatize what is "technical" : building a chart from data . Having done that initially in the 70's with a pencil and graph paper, I can tell you it is a boring and tedious process.

You can automatize for example your safeguards . Everyone here who in the past has lost hours of work because this work was not safeguarded knows the drill. And safeguarding manually your work brings you nothing more than if the process is automatized.

But can you automatize fully your decision process .? is it worth the investment in time , money and brain ? It is debatable
  • #1,731
  • Feb 7, 2020 12:43pm Feb 7, 2020 12:43pm
Quoting Swede
Speaking of manual drawing....is anyone using Time Conversion Bars? That is a staple of Jenkins on the higher timeframe. We all watched Euro fall off the map this week and many profitable trades were taken short....and a ton of effort was put in to try to catch the moves from one day to the next.....But here is a chart the proves the soundness of his methods....SHORT ENTRY WAS ESTABLISHED LAST FRIDAY FOR THIS WEEK...WHERE TO ENTER THAT IS...almost to the penny where you could expect to take this thing short again. All it takes is a few minuets to...
yes Swede I do

but IMHO it works mainly when Price Action is in Range.

Otherwise the Underlying Up or Down Trend distorts the results , sometimes severely.
  • #1,732
  • Feb 7, 2020 12:51pm Feb 7, 2020 12:51pm
Quoting parisboy
But can you automatize fully your decision process .? is it worth the investment in time , money and brain ? It is debatable
Automation is made up of a bundle of sub-processes that's individually automated. Complete automation requires all sub-processes to be automated first. That's a very difficult level to achieve, probably impossible given the decision making permutations. However, partial automation is possible where the rules of application is specific with little to none discretionary input. Partial automation must be the current objective especially when it's helpful in practical application. Will it lead to complete automation, only the future tells. And yes it takes time, money and brains.
Know what you trade
  • #1,733
  • Feb 7, 2020 12:53pm Feb 7, 2020 12:53pm
I do agree Parisboy....entry is always discretionary....but this method provides a really good reference to start the entry process....
  • #1,734
  • Edited 1:13pm Feb 7, 2020 1:00pm | Edited 1:13pm
Quoting Swede
I do agree Parisboy....entry is always discretionary....but this method provides a really good reference to start the entry process....
And that very thing you mention...is the reason I nearly always scale into my trades...often starting with a .10 entry, as things get confirmed maybe even 2 standard lots..like today euro....really didnt think there was any south left...I was wrong and had to enter....
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  • #1,735
  • Feb 7, 2020 1:09pm Feb 7, 2020 1:09pm
Quoting Swede
I do agree Parisboy....entry is always discretionary....but this method provides a really good reference to start the entry process....
Swede , an old chart of you revisited

If it can help
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  • #1,736
  • Edited 1:46pm Feb 7, 2020 1:20pm | Edited 1:46pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} And that very thing you mention...is the reason I nearly always scale into my trades...often starting with a .10 entry, as things get confirmed maybe even 2 standard lots..like today euro....really didnt think there was any south left...I was wrong and had to enter.... {image}
Swede , quoted by David Hickson from Sentient Trader about Ross Beck Stop Loss Methodology :


Money Management is possibly the most important aspect of any trading strategy.

The money management process that we use is absolutely vital to the profitable trading of the FLD Trading Strategy and so it is important that you understand it fully.

The money management side of the trading plan ensures that you will make consistent profits, even if the analysis you are working with is not always correct, and even if you incorrectly identify the category of trading opportunity that you are trading.

Our Money Management process is a Single-in, Scale-out process similar to that described in “The Gartley Trading Method” by Ross Beck.

We make three trades for every trading opportunity. Each of the three trades are entered at the same price and they are equal in size. This is Single-in.

The three trades are potentially all exited (or closed) at three different levels, which is called Scaling-out

.The three trades are often referred to as :

Risk Reduction Trade
Cycle Trade
Lottery Trade.

For a Trading Opportunity that justified risking 2% of your trading fund, each of the three trades would be for 0.66% of your trading fund.You will learn more about the Money Management process later on, but in summary:-

The Risk ReductionTrade does just that. After reaching the trade’s exit level (assuming the trade goes your way), you effectively reduce the total risk on the trading opportunity to one sixth of its original level, i.e. 0.33% of your trading fund (reduced from 2%)

The Cycle Trade is exited at the target level for the trade (again assuming it goes your way), calculated on the basis of cyclic principles.

The Lottery Trade means just what it is called. You let it run as far as it can go with a three bar trailing stop. This can lead to some spectacular returns
  • #1,737
  • Feb 7, 2020 1:34pm Feb 7, 2020 1:34pm
Quoting Swede
Speaking of manual drawing....is anyone using Time Conversion Bars? That is a staple of Jenkins on the higher timeframe. We all watched Euro fall off the map this week and many profitable trades were taken short....and a ton of effort was put in to try to catch the moves from one day to the next.....But here is a chart the proves the soundness of his methods....SHORT ENTRY WAS ESTABLISHED LAST FRIDAY FOR THIS WEEK...WHERE TO ENTER THAT IS...almost to the penny where you could expect to take this thing short again. All it takes is a few minuets to...
Swede . Food for thoughts

work in some limits when the Underlying Trend (see previous chart of yours revisited) is not too strong - an idea to follow

This means that the Relationship between Price and Time is similar in both Cycles .

Which means that the scaling is stable - we are de facto in Range
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  • #1,738
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:11pm Feb 7, 2020 2:11pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Swede . Food for thoughts work in some limits when the Underlying Trend (see previous chart of yours revisited) is not too strong - an idea to follow This means that the Relationship between Price and Time is similar in both Cycles . Which means that the scaling is stable - we are de facto in Range {image}
Really good thoughts.....scaling out is more the difficulty than scaling in, why? Can only think of one word..greed!! Lol.
We also have to determine our own risk tolerance...for example I am definitely much more a day trader than a swing or investment trader. At the end of the day I NEED to be out of the market, otherwise I’m tied to the markets and it effects my anxiety levels.

I know I miss some very nice swings because of that, but I can get back to the business of life without obsessing on what might/could happen to my over leveraged trade. So either I go small (no fun) or I closely manage my trades while in front of the screen.

Because of of all this my decision making process is probably quite different from yours. Anyway appreciate all your inputs...would like to hear your story.....I know you know a thing or two because you have seen a thing or two......right.
  • #1,739
  • Feb 7, 2020 2:36pm Feb 7, 2020 2:36pm
The beauty of Manual Drawing joined to the Time Price Conversion Bar Methodology !
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  • #1,740
  • Feb 8, 2020 4:27am Feb 8, 2020 4:27am
Gann Squaring Process - EU, GU friday
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