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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #5,581
  • Feb 6, 2020 9:42am Feb 6, 2020 9:42am
Quoting huskyboy
{quote} lastly i noticed some H1 divergence and Jazz simply answered: " I trade from ZOO's". I think thats your main problem too, seeing divergences everywhere but not all are tradeble.
Ok, so that is why we disregard the two prior bull divs before the one at ZOO 1.3140, we only look for divs at ZOOs - with the 1HR ZOO points at 1.3102 and 1.3140 being swing high levels. Then why do we not take the RSI div circled at the 1.3140 ZOO?

Quoting huskyboy
{quote}Oh yes you point out a bear div (red lines in your chart) but that isn't one, you have to connect the close with a close of a bar.
I had that labelled as a hidden bear div. I don't have the hidden div indicator so that's how I mark on chart. Thanks again Huskyboy.
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  • #5,582
  • Feb 6, 2020 12:27pm Feb 6, 2020 12:27pm
price retraced to the EMA H1, formed a HD on the M5 at that point followed by the drop to the lower EMA swing levels, retraced 50% and completed the AB=CD
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  • #5,583
  • Feb 6, 2020 1:41pm Feb 6, 2020 1:41pm
Quoting asoriga
{quote} Ok, so that is why we disregard the two prior bull divs before the one at ZOO 1.3140, we only look for divs at ZOOs - with the 1HR ZOO points at 1.3102 and 1.3140 being swing high levels. Then why do we not take the RSI div circled at the 1.3140 ZOO? {quote} I had that labelled as a hidden bear div. I don't have the hidden div indicator so that's how I mark on chart. Thanks again Huskyboy. {image}
Indeed Asoriga, if taken that would be a looser. And for the HD, that explains it, my apologies
  • #5,584
  • Feb 6, 2020 5:09pm Feb 6, 2020 5:09pm
Quoting asoriga
{quote} Ok, so that is why we disregard the two prior bull divs before the one at ZOO 1.3140, we only look for divs at ZOOs - with the 1HR ZOO points at 1.3102 and 1.3140 being swing high levels. Then why do we not take the RSI div circled at the 1.3140 ZOO?
Because Price already dealt before with that EMA swing high, and the M5 is making EMA HL and HH is nearby. Within an H1 trend.
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Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,585
  • Feb 6, 2020 9:25pm Feb 6, 2020 9:25pm
[quote=asoriga;12741472]{quote} Ok, so that is why we disregard the two prior bull divs before the one at ZOO 1.3140, we only look for divs at ZOOs - with the 1HR ZOO points at 1.3102 and 1.3140 being swing high levels. Then why do we not take the RSI div circled at the 1.3140 ZOO? {quote}

Divergences are more likely to fail or not return to the ema when a recent higher time frame supports have been found. When supports have been found this is where the balance changes from bear to bull and the market takes off like a rocket usually.
If you look at the 4 hour where there is divergence at the bottom, that was the bear's failure to drag the ema below the previous hump. The divergence sent price above the ema and then bulls found support.
So the failure for the ema to go lower than the previous hump, the divergence that crossed the ema and the bull support found all say the trend bias is up at that time.
Both 5m and 1h are trending above the ema so any sell trades would be counter to the main trend and should be considered as a scalp.
If you look for the 5m divergences in the direction of the higher time frame signals along with a decent target to aim for, these are the trades that are likely to gather momentum. Hope this helps in some way.
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  • #5,586
  • Feb 7, 2020 12:55am Feb 7, 2020 12:55am
Asoriga, do you delete the horizontal EMA Swing high/low lines from your charts, once they are passed by the EMA?
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,587
  • Feb 7, 2020 1:22am Feb 7, 2020 1:22am
morning Jazz.
price almost reached that EMA swing 29472 with a bear div H1 and a HD M5, shorted that
  • #5,588
  • Feb 7, 2020 3:12am Feb 7, 2020 3:12am
Quoting huskyboy
morning Jazz. price almost reached that EMA swing 29472 with a bear div H1 and a HD M5, shorted that
Yes me2 with 3.
I hedged it on the Low which is a ZOO in M5 div.
Took the hedge of at the M5 EMA so I am net short again.

Let's see if it is able to break YLow's. I have some doubts cos of M5 div.
M15 ABCD point to 50% = 1.2921 and 100%= 1.2906
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,589
  • Feb 7, 2020 3:18am Feb 7, 2020 3:18am
price projections M30, 50% level is the same as the last price low on the H1
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  • #5,590
  • Feb 7, 2020 3:24am Feb 7, 2020 3:24am
Quoting huskyboy
price projections M30, 50% level is the same as the last price low on the H1 {image}
Good.
On the M15 ABCD price stayed well below the upper 50% then for now failed to break the lower 50%
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,591
  • Feb 7, 2020 3:34am Feb 7, 2020 3:34am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Good. On the M15 ABCD price stayed well below the upper 50% then for now failed to break the lower 50%
you saw the H1 HD

my time is up, cu
  • #5,592
  • Feb 7, 2020 3:50am Feb 7, 2020 3:50am
Quoting huskyboy
{quote} you saw the H1 HD my time is up, cu
Yes sure but I have 10 pips full load in the pocket and the Sells safe.
M15 bear support.
Still I wonder if is going to the targets but I'm okay with it for now.
Very thin market.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,593
  • Feb 7, 2020 3:57am Feb 7, 2020 3:57am
Don't forget it's the first Friday of the month today so be a little cautious.
  • #5,594
  • Feb 7, 2020 4:19am Feb 7, 2020 4:19am
I am flat and out of here, I am not able to be at the computer with NFP news release.
Hope you all can look back at a good week, meaning growth in knowledge and chart reading capabilities and hopefully a green result. Just trade with the plan and build up experience. Have a great weekend all!
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,595
  • Feb 7, 2020 4:28am Feb 7, 2020 4:28am
Argh, I can't leave now, I sold the exact top again. H1 EMA in that S/R level.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,596
  • Feb 7, 2020 4:33am Feb 7, 2020 4:33am
And out. that's 21 pips for today which is enough.
Enjoy weekend all!
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,597
  • Feb 7, 2020 4:55am Feb 7, 2020 4:55am
Somebody asked via PM why I shorted that, from RSI Perspective.
Here is a clue
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but more important to me was the M5 EMA and M15 EMA swings going for LH and LL and he H1 EMA direction being solid.
What the EMA's are doing is what I keep in mind.
Plus I am aware that 'they' wanna sell expensive and buy cheap.
Tight stops!

Now I am really off
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,598
  • Feb 7, 2020 11:40am Feb 7, 2020 11:40am
Quoting Jazz1964
Asoriga, do you delete the horizontal EMA Swing high/low lines from your charts, once they are passed by the EMA?
In a way... Once they are passed, I have been shortening them instead of keeping them extended through the whole right side of the chart. But tbh, I just recently been marking these levels on my chart. Thanks for your previous analysis as well.

Quoting MrMagnet
Divergences are more likely to fail or not return to the ema when a recent higher time frame supports have been found. When supports have been found this is where the balance changes from bear to bull and the market takes off like a rocket usually. If you look at the 4 hour where there is divergence at the bottom, that was the bear's failure to drag the ema below the previous hump. The divergence sent price above the ema and then bulls found support. So the failure for the ema to go lower than the previous hump, the divergence that crossed the ema...
It does help MrMagnet, thank you. Will be reviewing this because I'm struggling in taking guidance from price and divergence as to where they will take the ema on the higher TF.

For example I had trouble with yesterday's price action. I saw the first bull div and assumed this would fail to bring the ema below ZOO 1.2947 and thus would bring price back to the opposite ZOO at 1.3031. Hindsight is Long (Similar to how the bull div in the 4HR chart in your analysis brought price back to the opposite ZOO). The 1HR bull div failed so now we expect price to bring the ema to ZOO 1.2947. Hindsight is back Short. Before it does we are met with another bull div in the 1HR. Hindsight is back Long?

What do we expect now, do we maintain our hindsight from the previous failed bull div and expect price to bring the ema short to ZOO 1.2947 or do we view this new bull div as a failure for price to bring the ema to that ZOO and now anticipate price bringing the ema to the other side to ZOO 1.3031? Do I disregard this latest 1HR bull div because of previous guidance or do we take all divs at higher TFs?

All the while we are below the 1HR so we should be looking for shorts. So there are conflicting signals, the way I'm interpreting Alan's method, and at any moment I'm not quite sure which one to prioritize over the other. A bit confused. Appreciate the help.
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  • #5,599
  • Edited 2:15pm Feb 7, 2020 1:33pm | Edited 2:15pm
Asoriga, the H1 sets up the ZOO points, gives us inference, but the M5 provides the entry. Take a look at post 474, maybe that can explain it a bit.
  • #5,600
  • Feb 8, 2020 1:58am Feb 8, 2020 1:58am
Quoting asoriga
{quote} Thanks for your previous analysis as well. {quote} It does help MrMagnet, thank you. Will be reviewing this because I'm struggling in taking guidance from price and divergence as to where they will take the ema on the higher TF. For example I had trouble with yesterday's price action. I saw the first bull div and assumed this would fail to bring the ema below ZOO 1.2947 and thus would bring price back to the opposite ZOO at 1.3031. Hindsight is Long (Similar to how the bull div in the 4HR chart in your analysis brought price back to the...
When we look back in hindsight we all see the zoo and the divergence that was the exact point where the market turned. So I guess what the underlying question is which divergence is the one to take to pick the end of a trend when divergences and zoo points can fail when making decisions in real-time. If we look at a chart there is a divergence then a support and then a trend, at times a hook in between the div and support.

This is a good example on the 1h where there are 5 divergences that haven't done anything. On the 5m there were multiple divergences with 2 bar entries. So plenty of signals to go long. Now on the 1m out of all those 5m and 1m divergence during the 5 x 1h divergences, there was only 1 instance where the bull found support but only for a short period of time.
Every divergence needs to be looked at for what it is on each occasion and we don't know which one it will be exactly within zoo's. We can only gain confidence when the 1m completes and hold each stage as we adjust our stops accordingly. The stages are a divergence, a hook if one, an ema crossing, a support creation and then price making higher highs. The same goes for the 5m and upwards.
So when these higher time frame divergences happen just have a look at the 1m for the supports in the other direction to gain some form of certainty. Even entering on the 1m support can give you good RR with your stop just under the support with the higher time frame divergences.
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