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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #5,541
  • Feb 4, 2020 4:22am Feb 4, 2020 4:22am
Tried short at the close of the last M5 candle because of bearish hidden div.
Edit: stop at BE
  • #5,542
  • Feb 4, 2020 4:28am Feb 4, 2020 4:28am
Quoting hocius
Tried short at the close of the last M5 candle because of bearish hidden div. Edit: stop at BE
This is the trouble with the timing of the day. It can get very choppy so scalping 10 pips here and there is fine.
  • #5,543
  • Feb 4, 2020 4:33am Feb 4, 2020 4:33am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} This is the trouble with the timing of the day. It can get very choppy so scalping 10 pips here and there is fine.
Yes, I guess action starts around london open and until 11.00 CET.
  • #5,544
  • Feb 4, 2020 4:42am Feb 4, 2020 4:42am
Quoting hocius
Tried short at the close of the last M5 candle because of bearish hidden div. Edit: stop at BE
You almost made it to the EMA. I think it is just killing time and may go up on the next 1 hour bar.
  • #5,545
  • Feb 4, 2020 4:46am Feb 4, 2020 4:46am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} You almost made it to the EMA. I think it is just killing time and may go up on the next 1 hour bar.
Yes, I also could had hedged there. Anyway, back to work. Its hard to trade from work with webtrader lol. Tonight I'll review today setups and study a bit. Take care all.
  • #5,546
  • Feb 4, 2020 7:31am Feb 4, 2020 7:31am
M5 made avg HH and ABCD projection hit
  • #5,547
  • Feb 4, 2020 7:38am Feb 4, 2020 7:38am
Quoting hocius
M5 made avg HH and ABCD projection hit
That is correct and for others here is the chart (blue lines)

We cannot get more accurate than that hey!
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  • #5,548
  • Feb 4, 2020 7:40am Feb 4, 2020 7:40am
I can go to bed now...
  • #5,549
  • Feb 4, 2020 10:29am Feb 4, 2020 10:29am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I wouldn't ignore a div but that is not to say I would take it, the inference was for the 1 hour to go for the EMA so I would not be looking to short these on the 5 min, if I get stopped out, too bad, but I wouldn't have lost anything.
Thanks Alan, that's very helpful.
  • #5,550
  • Feb 4, 2020 10:31am Feb 4, 2020 10:31am
Quoting hocius
{quote} A 2 bar test can help you avoid some div failure. Also remember than when a div fails to pull price to the ema, we can expect a lower low or a higher high. I have the same problem, we must have patience and wait for a good setup with the correct timing and on a ZOO level.
Thanks hocius, I've read that countless times stated by Alan but for some reason it didn't really register until now. Also, could you possibly show where and how exactly you'd use the two bar test on the chart?

Quoting huskyboy
{quote} I know its difficult and making the same mistakes but in your charts i am missing some levels; in that area you traded short I have 3 H1 EMA swing levels in an uptrend; we know that when a divergence dos not get back the price across the EMA its a good sign the move will continue in its original direction, so further long. We had a H1 ZOO at 31022 and on the H1 and the M5 price ran into that area in a bull divergence, so at that point we are looking at 31207. Price ran up, crossed that level and retested it (and its M5 bull support bar)...
Wow husky, this is extremely helpful. I didn't realize how much I missed, don't know how I missed those bullish divs given those seem to be the only part of this method I thought I had a good grasp on lol. I'm still trying to learn the ABCD and some of the other concepts and tbh I'm still digesting your analysis of the chart so I might bother you with a few questions on it later. Thank you.
  • #5,551
  • Feb 4, 2020 11:09am Feb 4, 2020 11:09am
Quoting asoriga
{quote} Thanks hocius, I've read that countless times stated by Alan but for some reason it didn't really register until now. Also, could you possibly show where and how exactly you'd use the two bar test on the chart? {quote} Wow husky, this is extremely helpful. I didn't realize how much I missed, don't know how I missed those bullish divs given those seem to be the only part of this method I thought I had a good grasp on lol. I'm still trying to learn the ABCD and some of the other concepts and tbh I'm still digesting your analysis of the chart...
No problem mate. I can't draw you a chart right now because I'm not at home. Check Post 4,652 for a couple of examples. Or you can search "2 bar test" on this thread for more examples. To be honest, I need to focus more on the 2 bar test also, but many times I'm afraid I'll lose the opportunity to get a good price.
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  • #5,552
  • Feb 4, 2020 12:07pm Feb 4, 2020 12:07pm
price projections H1 with B at the lowest RSI. I can't see it very clearly but I believe price made bull support. The bulls stopped the EMA from breaking the 3012, open space to the upper D @ 3095
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  • #5,553
  • Feb 4, 2020 1:10pm Feb 4, 2020 1:10pm
Quoting huskyboy
price projections H1 with B at the lowest RSI. I can't see it very clearly but I believe price made bull support. The bulls stopped the EMA from breaking the 3012, open space to the upper D @ 3095 {image}
Yeah, I'd say that's a bull support. I zoomed as much as I could and it seems it closed upside the ema
  • #5,554
  • Feb 4, 2020 5:22pm Feb 4, 2020 5:22pm
It would seem many are still having chart reading trouble, no problem I realise it takes time and study so if you are stuck just ask.

One thing that will definitely help is to make a study of the session and try to work out the particular events that happened. Then make a collection of print-outs for referencing. You can also write your own text to accompany the chart so when you read back a month or two you will find you are seeing the past in a different light because the light bulb turned on.

Below is an example of such a chart with the things we are keeping an eye on.

The text would read something like...

1) Bull div at B... Two bar test got me in with stop just below (This was also a bull div on the hour chart)
2) Not much of a hook testing the div.
3) Crossed the expected EMA to form C. Now we have the ABCD and can project the target to D
4) Bulls found support, so now we feel more confident.
5) Paused for a while at the 50% level allowing the EMA to catch up with the price.
6) EMA made the average swing high and the price hit the target D

I have put a box around the section of chart for reference and other things I like to note are the time it takes and what was going on with the RSI.

Hope this helps guys,, and gals of course.
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  • #5,555
  • Feb 4, 2020 6:04pm Feb 4, 2020 6:04pm
Thanks Alan for the great detail, it is much appreciated and helps a lot.
  • #5,556
  • Feb 4, 2020 7:00pm Feb 4, 2020 7:00pm
Quoting Nala66
I can go to bed now...
Hell of a pick..THKS.. Great Stuff
  • #5,557
  • Feb 4, 2020 7:58pm Feb 4, 2020 7:58pm
I'm in the US so I try and trade the 16:00 so I usually begin looking at charts around 15:00. Would this be a more acceptable plan of action given my start time.

I take inference from the 1HR bear div, zoom into the 5M and take the bear RSI div that broke the 1HR ZOO level at 1.3131. It fails to return price back to 1HR 26 ema so we now expect price move to the next ZOO at 1.3153. We ignore all bear div signals because of this and only look to take them if presented at 1.3153. Now do I take the first bear RSI div in the 5M chart at ZOO 1.3153, or do I wait for the 16:00 hour candle to close as a bear div to use as inference and then take the hidden div in the 5M chart? Either way, we are now short, we exit the short and go long at the bull div huskyboy outlined. Now why do we ignore the first two bull divs? I'm not competent in trading ABCD's yet so maybe that is the reason. Is this a more reasonable plan of action?

Given I start at 15:00, I ignored the bull div in the 5M chart at the 1HR ZOO 1.3120. Should I have taken that into account in any way, is that why you chose to not take the bear RSI div at 1.3131 huskyboy?

Also, huskyboy, why is 1.3102 a 1HR ZOO? Thanks for taking the time everybody. Appreciate the help.
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  • #5,558
  • Feb 5, 2020 12:50am Feb 5, 2020 12:50am
flat EMA H1, bear support on all timeframes
  • #5,559
  • Feb 5, 2020 1:40am Feb 5, 2020 1:40am
Quoting huskyboy
flat EMA H1, bear support on all timeframes
There is an ABCD to 3005 though on the hour...Not worth trading that small distance.

The five min has already hit its ABCD so no joy there either.
  • #5,560
  • Feb 5, 2020 1:42am Feb 5, 2020 1:42am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} There is an ABCD to 3005 though on the hour...Not worth trading that small distance. The five min has already hit its ABCD so no joy there either.
yep didn't see that

ABCD on M30 and price is now struggling at its 50% level; price took off that 50% level in a bull div
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