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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #5,501
  • Feb 3, 2020 4:22am Feb 3, 2020 4:22am
1 hour target hit...
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  • #5,502
  • Feb 3, 2020 4:51am Feb 3, 2020 4:51am
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Putting this altogether we get...

1) The 108 start
2) Trading below the 5 min ema
3 The 1 hour target distance

Though the trade started quite choppy, this is not unusual and several entries could be made via the 2 bar test in the early stages on the 5 min chart.

The very start of this trade would have been the div at the top but this would mean holding a trade open over the weekend... I don't like doing this just in case the world ends.

Day 1 and my $500 is now at $1009
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  • #5,503
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:03am Feb 3, 2020 5:03am
Tried going long but stopped out for +1
  • #5,504
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:30am Feb 3, 2020 5:30am
I'm done for the day and look forwards to finding out how this 5 min chart resolves itself...
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  • #5,505
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:31am Feb 3, 2020 5:31am
I had 83 pip.thanks nala
  • #5,506
  • Feb 3, 2020 7:17am Feb 3, 2020 7:17am
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Thanks for the response Alan. So to clarify a few things.

1. Once in trade we only look for hedges or exits at swing levels, whether that be 5M or 1HR? In this example, we ignore the bearish div 2 that I had labeled, and the dotted line div right after it. Correct?

2. "Remove all stops when the trade is hedged." What if we hedge and price goes 20 pips against our hedge entry point? And what if on the other side, price passes below our initial buy entry before we get any div signals? Do we just allow these trades to go negative and just assume the divs will bring them back into profit.

3. Why are we ignoring the RSI divs at 4 and 5?

4. Why exactly are the areas you marked 2 and 3 ZOOs?

5. Why that location for 2nd exit/hedge? Is this because it is a previous 5M swing? I assumed once price hits a swing we no longer use it later.
  • #5,507
  • Feb 3, 2020 7:43am Feb 3, 2020 7:43am
Quoting asoriga
{image} Thanks for the response Alan. So to clarify a few things. 1. Once in trade we only look for hedges or exits at swing levels, whether that be 5M or 1HR? In this example, we ignore the bearish div 2 that I had labeled, and the dotted line div right after it. Correct? 2. "Remove all stops when the trade is hedged." What if we hedge and price goes 20 pips against our hedge entry point? And what if on the other side, price passes below our initial buy entry before we get any div signals? Do we just allow these trades to go negative and just assume...
That's also one of my biggest problems, managing signals once we are in the trade.
  • #5,508
  • Feb 3, 2020 10:57am Feb 3, 2020 10:57am
More trades from last week, more questions lol. Bearish div at 1HR, 30M, and 15M, could not find bear div in 5M so took the bear div in 15M (Is that a mistake, should I always wait for 5M?). Obviously I got a lot wrong here, my biggest problem is that as long as I see that the 1HR is in divergence, which it seemed obvious it would be for at least the next couple 1HR candles, I keep thinking it's due to turn at any moment, especially if I'm seeing continued div signals in the 5M chart as we did here. And also, the further away price gets from the 26 ema, the more attractive the opportunity seems to me on the short side. So as you can see I keep taking the 5M bear div signals.

How should I play this? At the first bear div in the hourly chart candle marked 1, do I only make one attempt to short in the 5M chart and if it hits my stop loss stop looking within that hour for bearish div signals? Or do I take all 5M bear div signals within that hour? Now given the first hourly bear div failed, do I trade the next hourly bear div signal marked 2, and then 3? This will help clear up a lot. Thanks.
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  • #5,509
  • Feb 3, 2020 11:51am Feb 3, 2020 11:51am
Quoting asoriga
More trades from last week, more questions lol. Bearish div at 1HR, 30M, and 15M, could not find bear div in 5M so took the bear div in 15M (Is that a mistake, should I always wait for 5M?). Obviously I got a lot wrong here, my biggest problem is that as long as I see that the 1HR is in divergence, which it seemed obvious it would be for at least the next couple 1HR candles, I keep thinking it's due to turn at any moment, especially if I'm seeing continued div signals in the 5M chart as we did here. And also, the further away price gets from the...
A 2 bar test can help you avoid some div failure. Also remember than when a div fails to pull price to the ema, we can expect a lower low or a higher high. I have the same problem, we must have patience and wait for a good setup with the correct timing and on a ZOO level.
  • #5,510
  • Feb 3, 2020 12:59pm Feb 3, 2020 12:59pm
Quoting asoriga
More trades from last week, more questions lol. Bearish div at 1HR, 30M, and 15M, could not find bear div in 5M so took the bear div in 15M (Is that a mistake, should I always wait for 5M?). Obviously I got a lot wrong here, my biggest problem is that as long as I see that the 1HR is in divergence, which it seemed obvious it would be for at least the next couple 1HR candles, I keep thinking it's due to turn at any moment, especially if I'm seeing continued div signals in the 5M chart as we did here. And also, the further away price gets from the...
I know its difficult and making the same mistakes but in your charts i am missing some levels; in that area you traded short I have 3 H1 EMA swing levels in an uptrend; we know that when a divergence dos not get back the price across the EMA its a good sign the move will continue in its original direction, so further long.
We had a H1 ZOO at 31022 and on the H1 and the M5 price ran into that area in a bull divergence, so at that point we are looking at 31207. Price ran up, crossed that level and retested it (and its M5 bull support bar) in a bullish divergence, so looking for higher swing at 31318, same thing happened, it crossed it so again looking for higher levels at 31399 (look left) and 31530. Price reached in a bearish divergence 31530 so now expecting retrace to its EMA, and it did with a hook and HD. Price crossed the EMA and made an ABCD, so now looking for the D, and it easily made it. Just my opinion...
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  • #5,511
  • Feb 3, 2020 4:43pm Feb 3, 2020 4:43pm
Quoting HoangPhuong
I had 83 pip.thanks nala
Not sure what this means whether good or bad. 83 pips is chart movement not your account movement. was this 1%, 10%, 100%, 200% etc.
  • #5,512
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:03pm Feb 3, 2020 5:03pm
Quoting asoriga
{image} Thanks for the response Alan. So to clarify a few things. 1. Once in trade we only look for hedges or exits at swing levels, whether that be 5M or 1HR? In this example, we ignore the bearish div 2 that I had labeled, and the dotted line div right after it. Correct? 2. "Remove all stops when the trade is hedged." What if we hedge and price goes 20 pips against our hedge entry point? And what if on the other side, price passes below our initial buy entry before we get any div signals? Do we just allow these trades to go negative and just assume...
1) We only look for hedges when we feel we are not going to reach our profit target and feel threatened that our trade is going to turn back on us. Of course we can simply close the trade and re-enter in the opposite direction but what happens if the trend we started with continues, we would be giving back our profit taken. The hedge gives us breathing space, insurance and groups all our entries into one level on the chart making it a very safe thing to do. In other words when in doubt, hedge. I wouldn't ignore a div but that is not to say I would take it, the inference was for the 1 hour to go for the EMA so I would not be looking to short these on the 5 min, if I get stopped out, too bad, but I wouldn't have lost anything.

2) There is no point in having stops when a trade is hedged. It doesn't matter which way the price moves from that point on the profit is locked in and remains the same. Our task is to decide when to close one side or the other manually.

3) I didn't ignore divs 4 and 5, that was the 2nd entry level long where the hedge also came off.

4) You answered that yourself with your 1 hour lines. Oh no, the lines stay on until the current EMA swing breaks the previous EMA swing. For an EMA to break a previous one PRICE must certainly do so and Price tends to make the next level/s.
  • #5,513
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:05pm Feb 3, 2020 5:05pm
Quoting hocius
{quote} That's also one of my biggest problems, managing signals once we are in the trade.
When in doubt just hedge it but only in a profit situation. This gives you time to think and even go to bed, your profits are locked in.
  • #5,514
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:06pm Feb 3, 2020 5:06pm
Quoting hocius
{quote} A 2 bar test can help you avoid some div failure. Also remember than when a div fails to pull price to the ema, we can expect a lower low or a higher high. I have the same problem, we must have patience and wait for a good setup with the correct timing and on a ZOO level.
Exactly....
  • #5,515
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:09pm Feb 3, 2020 5:09pm
Quoting huskyboy
{quote} I know its difficult and making the same mistakes but in your charts i am missing some levels; in that area you traded short I have 3 H1 EMA swing levels in an uptrend; we know that when a divergence dos not get back the price across the EMA its a good sign the move will continue in its original direction, so further long. We had a H1 ZOO at 31022 and on the H1 and the M5 price ran into that area in a bull divergence, so at that point we are looking at 31207. Price ran up, crossed that level and retested it (and its M5 bull support bar)...
Well read and plotted..
  • #5,516
  • Feb 3, 2020 5:22pm Feb 3, 2020 5:22pm
For today we can see the EMA is closing in on the 3012 level on the 1 hour chart. We should be watching for price to break the 2991 level and push down to those lower levels.

Else the bulls will attempt to stop the average moving downwards.

See also on the chart how we can think about the formation of a future ABCD. Until price made that pullback at 3060 an ABCD would not have been possible.

Now how low can it go?
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  • #5,517
  • Feb 3, 2020 6:42pm Feb 3, 2020 6:42pm
Quoting Nala66
{image}Putting this altogether we get... 1) The 108 start 2) Trading below the 5 min ema 3 The 1 hour target distance Though the trade started quite choppy, this is not unusual and several entries could be made via the 2 bar test in the early stages on the 5 min chart. The very start of this trade would have been the div at the top but this would mean holding a trade open over the weekend... I don't like doing this just in case the world ends. Day 1 and my $500 is now at $1009 {image}
Nala did U get an entry on the M5 TF ? I was waiting for one to go short but I couldn't see one
  • #5,518
  • Feb 4, 2020 12:03am Feb 4, 2020 12:03am
Quoting PhillipmC
{quote} Nala did U get an entry on the M5 TF ? I was waiting for one to go short but I couldn't see one
Gee wiz there was heaps of stuff to take it short... Plus the 1 hour
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  • #5,519
  • Feb 4, 2020 12:18am Feb 4, 2020 12:18am
Dear Nala,
I am lurking here for 10 months now and it time to THANK YOU for sharing your great trading system with the community. And also a big thank you for your ongoing great teaching. It took time but I make profit often enough. Still I need to develop my skills further. Sorry that I never post but that has to do with the fact that I am disabled. Pushing Buy and Sell and Close buttons is what I can do but this text is not typed by me.
I have a question for you sir. Can you please go for the next step and be transparent in your precise entries and exits by dragging your trades to the chart? It will help to see what your timing is. It is already helpful that other trader show their trades but still I would love to see your trades. No problem if that is including your errors. If you would give explanation like "I entered too late", "I forgot to hedge" that does not matter. Truly it would be the next step if you would decide to be clear on the entries and exits. Can you do that please?
I wish everybody good trading and a nice day.
  • #5,520
  • Feb 4, 2020 1:04am Feb 4, 2020 1:04am
Good to have you back Alan! Thank you!
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
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