DislikedPosting for posterity, may not see a week like that for awhile... {image}Ignored
Last Thursday and Friday I applied the facility to my trading and the outcome was sweet.
Thanks and stay blessed
For the op, you are appreciated man
1
Simple Monday-Tuesday System (attached calculator)
- #122
- Feb 1, 2020 12:00am Feb 1, 2020 12:00am
Hi 4ecstasy
Thanks for sharing your strategy here. I'm sure this will generate quite a lot of interest.
I have tested a few currencies along with Gold and a couple of Indexes this week. Overall great results, I look forward to seeing these continue.
I tested two settings to see how they compared.
Your settings of:
Entry at -15% and 115%
SL at -10% and 110%
TP of -50% and 150% (actually I used -65% and 165% as well, just to see the difference of TP hits) some of the trades you can see came close to 65% before turning back.
2nd Setting of:
Entry at -15% and 115%
SL at 25% and 75%
TP same as above
I have marked the charts with Win/Loss etc, I have not calculated overall totals for % stats.
After only one week your SL and TP seem to have the edge over the closer SL of 25% 75%, I may try other SL% to compare, forward testing may shine a light on this.
I am certainly no expert trader yet, and will test to the best of my abilities, if I have made some mistakes regarding rules or marking of my charts I apologize in advance.
I welcome feedback from you and indeed anyone else here who is interested in the system, Erebus and other experienced traders especially.
Cheers
Thanks for sharing your strategy here. I'm sure this will generate quite a lot of interest.
I have tested a few currencies along with Gold and a couple of Indexes this week. Overall great results, I look forward to seeing these continue.
I tested two settings to see how they compared.
Your settings of:
Entry at -15% and 115%
SL at -10% and 110%
TP of -50% and 150% (actually I used -65% and 165% as well, just to see the difference of TP hits) some of the trades you can see came close to 65% before turning back.
2nd Setting of:
Entry at -15% and 115%
SL at 25% and 75%
TP same as above
I have marked the charts with Win/Loss etc, I have not calculated overall totals for % stats.
After only one week your SL and TP seem to have the edge over the closer SL of 25% 75%, I may try other SL% to compare, forward testing may shine a light on this.
I am certainly no expert trader yet, and will test to the best of my abilities, if I have made some mistakes regarding rules or marking of my charts I apologize in advance.
I welcome feedback from you and indeed anyone else here who is interested in the system, Erebus and other experienced traders especially.
Cheers
- #123
- Feb 1, 2020 12:54am Feb 1, 2020 12:54am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,994 Posts | Online Now
- #124
- Feb 1, 2020 1:43am Feb 1, 2020 1:43am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,560 Posts
{quote} HI EREBUS can you help with this kind of fibonnacci tool
Because there's labels for High and Low, you need to drag it from High to Low for them to be in correct position.
Currently I'm using 25% of the range at both High and Low. I believe the OP settings of 15 and 10 are based purely on what he found worked by observations and trial and error.
You can change those levels quite easily, assuming you have Grade 6 math skills.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
Follow up to my first post here
Chart shows my understanding of RR at different levels, hope I got this right, someone please correct me if it's wrong.
Also 11 Closed trade results in % for this last week, value based on the chart calculations shown.
I want to state that I would not necessarily risk the amount shown in the example of last weeks results on a Live account.
Chart shows my understanding of RR at different levels, hope I got this right, someone please correct me if it's wrong.
Also 11 Closed trade results in % for this last week, value based on the chart calculations shown.
I want to state that I would not necessarily risk the amount shown in the example of last weeks results on a Live account.
Being a system that doesn't need to be run on every tick I added a timer parameter in seconds for the code to be executed, most useful for improving backtesting performance. Defaulted to 5 minutes.
v1.4 attached
I agree BeaterTrader,
I ran a backtest from 2010 for some pairs and the results are good for the last months but not before, so we might be at a good time for the system but should be very careful because it doesn't win in the long run, at least with default parameters and this week we also had the Brexit favouring the system. I will go small on next week though and keep going until we have a losing one because trading in general can change. I've created an EA that wins incredible well on the tester from 2000 till 2018 and loses since then, still trying to find a way to make it work for today's times.
Tests with v1.4
v1.4 attached
I agree BeaterTrader,
I ran a backtest from 2010 for some pairs and the results are good for the last months but not before, so we might be at a good time for the system but should be very careful because it doesn't win in the long run, at least with default parameters and this week we also had the Brexit favouring the system. I will go small on next week though and keep going until we have a losing one because trading in general can change. I've created an EA that wins incredible well on the tester from 2000 till 2018 and loses since then, still trying to find a way to make it work for today's times.
Tests with v1.4
- #128
- Feb 1, 2020 4:16pm Feb 1, 2020 4:16pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 2,034 Posts
{quote} I hope this makes it clear.{image} So in this trade for Buy stop the TP is 62pips, SL is 71 pips. And for Sell stop the TP and SL are the same 62/71. So we have around 1:0.9 trade. I could actually make a tighter SL just to make it 1:1 because when I was backtesting there really wasn't a trade that was close call for the SL when it was a loss it went way beyond the SL. I'm not saying this is perfect but the proposal was too big of a gap between the TP and SL it was around 1:3. So I've put in the numbers in the fibo and TBH I really don't...
Thanks. Just wanted to make sure I am understanding you.
- #129
- Feb 1, 2020 8:42pm Feb 1, 2020 8:42pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,560 Posts
Summary of, manual and visual only, research for the week ending January 31, 2020. Looking at the 25% line to trigger a trade entry.
On the 7 major pairs and 21 minor pairs there were:
4 pairs, no entry, EURCHF, EURGBP, EURJPY, GBPCHF
2 pairs, total stop outs, CHFJPY, USDCHF (gave opposite entry)
1 pair, AUDNZD touched the upper line, but seriously, they were the weakest currencies & I hardly ever trade this pair.
Out of 28 pairs, 23 gave entry opportunity, 2 losses and 21 pairs with positive pips, how can traders ignore that?
Some fantastic pips to be had on EURNZD & GBPNZD. I didn't add up all the pairs but it would be heaps pips if left open, I'm only on phone so if anyone wants to check it out, go for it.
So, the question is, was that a normal week for overall price action? It seems to me that this method would be ideally suited to joining an existing trend which is continuing.
It could also pick up reversal of trend (tops and bottoms) as long as price doesn't give an entry on Wednesday or Thursday, and then completely turn around the next day as the USDCHF did. Even so, taking the opposite signal may recover the loss, don't know yet.
I don't think that the USDCHF last week was typical price action, for any pair, on a week to week basis. Thoughts anyone? Who's ready to rock and roll? You have to wait until Wednesday, this method already stopped you from those losing Monday trades
On the 7 major pairs and 21 minor pairs there were:
4 pairs, no entry, EURCHF, EURGBP, EURJPY, GBPCHF
2 pairs, total stop outs, CHFJPY, USDCHF (gave opposite entry)
1 pair, AUDNZD touched the upper line, but seriously, they were the weakest currencies & I hardly ever trade this pair.
Out of 28 pairs, 23 gave entry opportunity, 2 losses and 21 pairs with positive pips, how can traders ignore that?
Some fantastic pips to be had on EURNZD & GBPNZD. I didn't add up all the pairs but it would be heaps pips if left open, I'm only on phone so if anyone wants to check it out, go for it.
So, the question is, was that a normal week for overall price action? It seems to me that this method would be ideally suited to joining an existing trend which is continuing.
It could also pick up reversal of trend (tops and bottoms) as long as price doesn't give an entry on Wednesday or Thursday, and then completely turn around the next day as the USDCHF did. Even so, taking the opposite signal may recover the loss, don't know yet.
I don't think that the USDCHF last week was typical price action, for any pair, on a week to week basis. Thoughts anyone? Who's ready to rock and roll? You have to wait until Wednesday, this method already stopped you from those losing Monday trades
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #132
- Feb 1, 2020 10:46pm Feb 1, 2020 10:46pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,560 Posts
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
- #133
- Edited 11:26pm Feb 1, 2020 11:06pm | Edited 11:26pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Gold Again | 10,560 Posts
{quote} I think this is a great idea as long as the Average Weekly Range still gives enough room to recoup the losses from the 1st trade and hopefully make some extra %'s on the other side. I think breaking even on the other side is awesome in itself. If on our bad trades, we can at least BE.
Speaking of AWR, this is my chance to direct followers over to
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=939778
Haven't used it myself, only working from a mobile MT right now ☹ but definitely great advice to be aware of both ADR and AWR.
Now to your comment, given that this method doesn't give an entry until Wednesday at the earliest, any total reversal such as the USDCHF did, will hardly be completed by Friday, so this requires holding into the next week.
This type of fake out move and reversal is well know on smaller timeframes, pump & dump
On the daily, I would expect the USDCHF to continue lower, the assumption being it has decided on direction for the near term anyway, which seems to be the main trend.
Cheers
Edit to add chart, fascinating price action
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
You're on to something.You know you can implement this, from beginning of the week phase to an hourly chart? Or daily, whatever.
It's the same concept statistically:
price will move to be ~10% on one side, before it will go to about 5x to the opposite side, 80% of the time, to create the normal range; in a blink of an eye no less. :-)
Of course, that 10% isn't just for it to be there, you ever know how much crap a bank can fit in an hour's, day's, week's time? More advertisement than an American football game.
Heck, even if the fake move is 1%
1%+ the spread that many times will not be enough to cover the 5x reward. It's like gambling still if you made it this far... needs refinement.
Add a bit of a low blow by not finishing a range, and people are triggered not following discipline, changing systems, fading prices, omens, psychology, magic number trails, entering at high volatility and card reading(order flow & candle types) for prediction purposes.
