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The Swamp

  • #50,781
  • Edited 2:33am Feb 1, 2020 2:23am | Edited 2:33am
gold is up this week.. With the safety hype. I know "buy the rumor" is in vogue. Does it make sense if Chindia catches the flu? Here is what was going on before the flu. India demand was down 18%. An 8 year low. Blame it on the Iphone.. The new gold demand killer/ status symbol. I dont think gold is a sure thing. The reason of buying gold because of the flu, may be the reason to sell gold because of the flu.

https://www.business-standard.com/bu...3100074_1.html
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,782
  • Feb 1, 2020 2:40am Feb 1, 2020 2:40am
Quoting gatorinla
gold is up this week.. With the safety hype. I know "buy the rumor" is in vogue. Does it make sense if Chindia catches the flu? Here is what was going on before the flu. India demand was down 18%. An 8 year low. Blame it on the Iphone.. The new gold demand killer/ status symbol. I dont think gold is a sure thing. The reason of buying gold because of the flu, may be the reason to sell gold because of the flu. https://www.business-standard.com/bu...3100074_1.html...
Copper and oil are down already.. I suspect gold will follow at some point. I'm not saying short. I'm saying pace those longs, and consider short. It's not a sure thing to be long gold. Plus the flu can cause the world into recession. Equals less $ to buy gold for the average person. The spike in gold price may be short lived.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,783
  • Feb 1, 2020 3:30am Feb 1, 2020 3:30am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Look at the daily or weekly chart. EU may form a bigger head and shoulders pattern. If it is forming the right shoulder then we might get 118x and then a dump to 1.088x area. Two days in a row we had bull candles with huge volume. Let's see if we open with a gap down.
Asia will be fun can't wait ))
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #50,784
  • Feb 1, 2020 3:36am Feb 1, 2020 3:36am
Quoting gatorinla
gold is up this week.. With the safety hype. I know "buy the rumor" is in vogue. Does it make sense if Chindia catches the flu? Here is what was going on before the flu. India demand was down 18%. An 8 year low. Blame it on the Iphone.. The new gold demand killer/ status symbol. I dont think gold is a sure thing. The reason of buying gold because of the flu, may be the reason to sell gold because of the flu. https://www.business-standard.com/bu...3100074_1.html...
it's not only that. you do have a point and also reading on some of the gold companies earnings they know at a point price is to high demand slow.

but let's take yesterday

you sold stocks, you sell usd you buy what ? bonds gold ? bond now have the lowest yield.
honestly there are some stocks already beaten with 6% dividend but you need to take more downside

i close the position in gold yesterday because i did't like pa and while i am dot shorting things in bull markets. besides sometimes index i would short gold for if a see a big gap up. every time it get's to 1580-1590 there were sellers. don't like the PA. you could not stop the buyers yesterday at so much panic. and also USX went down.

I think at this point you only buying gold for panic. if there is no panic it drops. you could have watched the ticks on SPX going minutes higher and immediately gold was selling a few bucks. strange
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #50,785
  • Feb 1, 2020 8:25am Feb 1, 2020 8:25am
Quoting longshot_nl
gu a big artley and a small one. dont know if any will work. they dont look great. {image}
A very big cypher on the daily chart.
compared with these.

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  • #50,786
  • Edited 9:00am Feb 1, 2020 8:47am | Edited 9:00am
In order for eu to make a descent gartley @ 0956 it needs c.a. 1202
its almost half way to 1202.
This is called a libre pattern. It ends up 3 pips away.
If it bounces around 1115 it could even become a bat around there.
If it bounces around 1144 it could become a gartley around there.

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  • #50,787
  • Feb 1, 2020 8:53am Feb 1, 2020 8:53am
euraud gartley can easily fail with this momentum.

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  • #50,788
  • Feb 1, 2020 9:27am Feb 1, 2020 9:27am
this is a eu 1h bat with momentum issues.

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  • #50,789
  • Feb 1, 2020 10:19am Feb 1, 2020 10:19am
Quoting gatorinla
gold is up this week.. With the safety hype. I know "buy the rumor" is in vogue. Does it make sense if Chindia catches the flu? Here is what was going on before the flu. India demand was down 18%. An 8 year low. Blame it on the Iphone.. The new gold demand killer/ status symbol. I dont think gold is a sure thing. The reason of buying gold because of the flu, may be the reason to sell gold because of the flu. https://www.business-standard.com/bu...3100074_1.html...
I would ignore the flu and buy gold because of 10 year about to go below 1.5%. Last time that happened was repo panic time. The Fed will make sure there is enough dollar to go around. The Chindia demand is interesting, I will keep an eye on it. The dollar will fall though, and this is all I need to see to make me a longer term gold bull. The 2 year already back at 1.32. That rejection is serious on the DXY. It may take some time, but we are going back to the depths of charts the again. I hope it tests 100 again, but I would not count on it getting much higher than that.
  • #50,790
  • Feb 1, 2020 11:45am Feb 1, 2020 11:45am
usd cad bat with a tl

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  • #50,791
  • Feb 1, 2020 5:59pm Feb 1, 2020 5:59pm
Quoting WhipKream
{quote} I would ignore the flu and buy gold because of 10 year about to go below 1.5%. Last time that happened was repo panic time. The Fed will make sure there is enough dollar to go around. The Chindia demand is interesting, I will keep an eye on it. The dollar will fall though, and this is all I need to see to make me a longer term gold bull. The 2 year already back at 1.32. That rejection is serious on the DXY. It may take some time, but we are going back to the depths of charts the again. I hope it tests 100 again, but I would not count on...
some bird flu reported in China too..when it rains it pours..https://www.businessinsider.com/bird...-highly-2020-2
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,792
  • Feb 1, 2020 6:11pm Feb 1, 2020 6:11pm
18000 chicken is a small farm, large farms contain 100k+ and when 1 chicken is affected in a farm, all the others will be, Plus chicken disease is a common thing in farms, Reuters is just bubbling things, seriously.
  • #50,793
  • Feb 1, 2020 6:47pm Feb 1, 2020 6:47pm
Quoting Ysfbeck
18000 chicken is a small farm, large farms contain 100k+ and when 1 chicken is affected in a farm, all the others will be, Plus chicken disease is a common thing in farms, Reuters is just bubbling things, seriously.
birds fly, the disease came from somewhere. Maybe wild birds. Its not so much about the chickens. Its about the disease and origin. Is it spreading?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,794
  • Feb 1, 2020 6:55pm Feb 1, 2020 6:55pm
$10 k to $37 k trading recap:

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instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #50,795
  • Feb 2, 2020 5:04am Feb 2, 2020 5:04am
Well here goes Aud gap, if it even existed.

Chinese central bank to pump US$173 billion to economy in fight against virus.

http://https://www.channelnewsasia.c...boost-12382398

The mind is not a book to be opened at will and examined at leisure
  • #50,796
  • Feb 2, 2020 7:29am Feb 2, 2020 7:29am
Quoting jaylovin
GJ and AJ trendlines fallen down... AJ and AU have a gap down.. Both may keep dropping, I have GJ at 138.xx and AJ back to 71.xx to start nice to see EU drop some - i feel a retracement will come soon then more drop. silly pair, I am staying away from it to be honest {image} {image}
Eu went higher as expected. Aj closed at 72.50 as i mentioned could hit in another post. There no bull signs yet for AJ in my opinion.

Eu can climb higher to 1.13 or more. I don't expect 1.15 to get taken out. I do expect the trend down to continue after retracement to sub 1.0878. 1.04 could be emerging here
  • #50,797
  • Feb 2, 2020 9:45am Feb 2, 2020 9:45am
every dog has his day..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,798
  • Feb 2, 2020 10:44am Feb 2, 2020 10:44am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} she is @ brick wall at the moment, she has pierce daily high but around this level looking left has proven pretty good resistance since mid december, only real push through 10th jan got smacked back down below and printed a doji, so only othe candle to print above was wick! will reconsider if she can take out 9750?
yea, pretty bearish week against those R's...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #50,799
  • Feb 2, 2020 10:54am Feb 2, 2020 10:54am
will be keeping an eye on GBPJPY, maybe has a little more room to the upside....
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #50,800
  • Feb 2, 2020 2:03pm Feb 2, 2020 2:03pm
Quoting Isvara
Well here goes Aud gap, if it even existed. Chinese central bank to pump US$173 billion to economy in fight against virus. http://https://www.channelnewsasia.c...boost-12382398
...So where is all that POTA (printed out of thing air) money is going to go after the virus is gone? into the economy....
The Chonchy
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