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The Swamp

  • #50,761
  • Jan 31, 2020 1:07pm Jan 31, 2020 1:07pm
true.....
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  • #50,762
  • Jan 31, 2020 2:10pm Jan 31, 2020 2:10pm
in 20 some mins....

TRUMP CORONAVIRUS TEAM TO HOLD PUBLIC BRIEFING AT 3:30 PM
  • #50,763
  • Jan 31, 2020 2:23pm Jan 31, 2020 2:23pm
Quoting Boulder
true..... {image}
I get your AUDCHF buys now. Hope they do you well.
  • #50,764
  • Jan 31, 2020 2:30pm Jan 31, 2020 2:30pm
gu a big artley and a small one.
dont know if any will work. they dont look great.


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  • #50,765
  • Jan 31, 2020 3:01pm Jan 31, 2020 3:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} hmmm,, the pictures I see is. A big ass fire, and China has the flu.. I suspect tourism will be lower and China will buy less raw materials. A worldwide slowing. A ideal time to cut interest rates to help economy.
better situate your trades less toward Long commodity currencies like Aud or Cad..you want these on the bearish side of your trade. The usd/aud is still holding at the support. I suspect it too, will sink. Swap wise, its better than most. Possible large gap this weekend..
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,766
  • Jan 31, 2020 3:06pm Jan 31, 2020 3:06pm
Quoting Boulder
in 20 some mins.... TRUMP CORONAVIRUS TEAM TO HOLD PUBLIC BRIEFING AT 3:30 PM
Quote. "we will have the biggest best virus of all time"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,767
  • Jan 31, 2020 3:44pm Jan 31, 2020 3:44pm
Quoting WhipKream
{quote} I get your AUDCHF buys now. Hope they do you well.
it pays good swaps.. make sure not over leverage in case it needs to hold for a while due to corona virus...
  • #50,768
  • Jan 31, 2020 4:02pm Jan 31, 2020 4:02pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} it pays good swaps.. make sure not over leverage in case it needs to hold for a while due to corona virus...
Haha yes I am in a bit of deep water, but I am a good swimmer. AU H1 showing bullish pressure and a nice fat inverse bubble that will get popped. When? Don't know, but I will manage it. The only time I haven't made money is when I give up and don't hedge what I should. I will reevaluate Sunday and figure out if I need to scalp some EU long and AU short. My only concern is EU going way above 1.11, otherwise I think I just have to be patient. The more it pushes the bigger my target.
  • #50,769
  • Jan 31, 2020 4:06pm Jan 31, 2020 4:06pm
Quoting WhipKream
{quote} Haha yes I am in a bit of deep water, but I am a good swimmer. AU H1 showing bullish pressure and a nice fat inverse bubble that will get popped. When? Don't know, but I will manage it. The only time I haven't made money is when I give up and don't hedge what I should. I will reevaluate Sunday and figure out if I need to scalp some EU long and AU short. My only concern is EU going way above 1.11, otherwise I think I just have to be patient. The more it pushes the bigger my target.
I hope we dont get a 100+ gap open.. plus at the open, the spread may be wide. Bad news during the weekend. Can cause moves. I doubt any good news concerning the flu for a long time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,770
  • Jan 31, 2020 4:34pm Jan 31, 2020 4:34pm
Weekend worries:
As of now, Republicans have admitted (Sen. Murkowski) that Trump committed the crime and it's sad, but he will be acquitted, because they say so. They are not even going to hear from witnesses. USA has essentially become a banana republic. Trial over by Saturday.
Coronavirus continues exponential spread.
Crude sitting on yearlong floor.

Does USD continue its fall?
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #50,771
  • Jan 31, 2020 5:17pm Jan 31, 2020 5:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I hope we dont get a 100+ gap open.. plus at the open, the spread may be wide. Bad news during the weekend. Can cause moves. I doubt any good news concerning the flu for a long time.
Neither do I, but we will see what happens. Worse comes to worse I take some losses, I am not worried about blowing the account, margin call, or anything. Gold kinda about to explode, and even with coronavirus and slowing China, the Aussie hasn't exactly been strong for the past 8 years. Yet look at the fight it has had with the Euro since the last quarter of 2018. ACHF kinda smart buy when you think about where all the money gonna go to. Aussie gold production helps let SNB keep swissy in check. I see it hitting .735 in the next 5 years. If RBA decides to cut again then maybe I just say fuck the aussie and switch my net position to short for awhile. EA is rounding out and the Euro bubble should pop soon. I trade contrarian mostly anyways, already suffered worse DD from EU with smaller account. The only question is what falls first, the euro, or the usd. Interest rates say euro, but maybe raising them actually sped up US need for printing press, there is the theory the government is just out to screw everyone lol. I think another inverted yield curve and corona are just 2 more canaries in the coal mine, this can only go on for so long. Impeachment, Repo, 2 inverted yield curves, gold almost near its all time high, slowing China, coronavirus, Swissy and Yen pressure, all time high debt to GDP ratios, massive relative rate cuts across the board. I hedge against whoever is in the worse spot (who's overvalued). Since paper is worthless given a long enough time, eventually it is all equally worthless. I ask this, do you see EU parity or 1.25 first? As much as I don't want to hold paper, I put my faith in those who control the gold. 80% historical correlation makes sense when you are a nation of 25 million yet are the 2nd largest producer of gold. Someone's gonna need it, and pretty damn soon for sure. The more I think about it, the more I see EA at 1.5 at least. But I am no fortune teller, just some guy with an opinion.
  • #50,772
  • Edited 6:20pm Jan 31, 2020 6:10pm | Edited 6:20pm
Quoting WhipKream
{quote} Neither do I, but we will see what happens. Worse comes to worse I take some losses, I am not worried about blowing the account, margin call, or anything. Gold kinda about to explode, and even with coronavirus and slowing China, the Aussie hasn't exactly been strong for the past 8 years. Yet look at the fight it has had with the Euro since the last quarter of 2018. ACHF kinda smart buy when you think about where all the money gonna go to. Aussie gold production helps let SNB keep swissy in check. I see it hitting .735 in the next 5 years....
aud was on a downspin since 2010 .. it did have a little reprieve with the u.s. China deal last month. If the flu continues, i think we could see near 6000. pa sits above support 6670 ish. one step at a time. Invest in face mask. bleach, body bags and diarrhea medicines. The flu could last a while. Even after you get over a flu, it often returns worse. Sick people dont work. They go out less. They stay home/hospitals and so does the caretakers. They tend to not go out and spend $. The rest of the population may stay home out of fear. Or ordered by government. The demand for aud raw materials should drop. Evident b4 the flu in copper price, and now in oil prices.

And since your taking advice from a nut on the net. I'm a Nigerian Princess, and if you mail me 10 k$. I can get my 10 billion from the from my uncle. I need money to pay the courts and attorney. I will be happy to give you a million when I get my inheritance.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,773
  • Jan 31, 2020 7:50pm Jan 31, 2020 7:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} aud was on a downspin since 2010 .. it did have a little reprieve with the u.s. China deal last month. If the flu continues, i think we could see near 6000. pa sits above support 6670 ish. one step at a time. Invest in face mask. bleach, body bags and diarrhea medicines. The flu could last a while. Even after you get over a flu, it often returns worse. Sick people dont work. They go out less. They stay home/hospitals and so does the caretakers. They tend to not go out and spend $. The rest of the population may stay home out of fear. Or...
I am no perma aussie bull, and I try not to take other people's advice . Do you get out a lot? People seem quite busy recently. Spending good amounts of money. It won't last forever, but this is just my observation. They seem to be joking about the virus mostly, and I haven't seen any flu either, not from the first wave and certainly not from the second. Bronchitis and pneumonia yes, but no flu. Anyways, gold correlation too strong in my opinion, and risk off quite a force right now. Gold will hit above 2000 in the next few years. Unless by some magic people have gotten more stupid and it sits ranging for the next 20 years. Maybe I short some AU and AJ as hedges until this push is over. Closing at the low is never a good sign. Will have to see EU reaction at 1.11. Price may take it one step at a time, but it will always give the direction it is pointing on a long enough time frame. If EU hovers below 1.11 until next Friday, I care not if EA goes up another 500 pips. In my opinion EU will hit 1.09 before AU hits .65, support needs some strong reaction though.
  • #50,774
  • Jan 31, 2020 8:30pm Jan 31, 2020 8:30pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} it pays good swaps.. make sure not over leverage in case it needs to hold for a while due to corona virus...
yeah, I’m long audchf & au & usdchf, short eu & ea. Guess I can collect swap and manage dd for awhile. Sucks ass, but January was very profitable, so just a part of trading I guess.

hope gator is wrong (for once ) about aud staying weak for a long period of time

Edit: note to self, get back to just trading eu and uchf as quasi-hedges! Geesh...
A snails pace wins the race :-)
  • #50,775
  • Feb 1, 2020 12:16am Feb 1, 2020 12:16am
missed the close. i could have close the last long on EU +10 but on big swapp loss.

i guess it can go to 1.12 or even 1.126

i am net short

imho all has to do with Corona. at this point USX will go the same direction with SPX
Stocks up dollar up
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #50,776
  • Feb 1, 2020 1:07am Feb 1, 2020 1:07am
Quoting WhipKream
{quote} I am no perma aussie bull, and I try not to take other people's advice . Do you get out a lot? People seem quite busy recently. Spending good amounts of money. It won't last forever, but this is just my observation. They seem to be joking about the virus mostly, and I haven't seen any flu either, not from the first wave and certainly not from the second. Bronchitis and pneumonia yes, but no flu. Anyways, gold correlation too strong in my opinion, and risk off quite a force right now. Gold will hit above 2000 in the next few years....
I tend to let things retrace 50% or greater. Most of the time, before trading it.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,777
  • Feb 1, 2020 1:18am Feb 1, 2020 1:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I tend to let things retrace 50% or greater. Most of the time, before trading it. {image}
the bounce up is 50% or greater now. The next time it drops. Should be a 50% or greater drop of this rise.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,778
  • Edited 2:15am Feb 1, 2020 2:05am | Edited 2:15am
I can see it targeting 1703.67 now, or 1210.58 before, 1703.67. 1210.58 is opposite of current fundi reasons for a safety trade. But 1210.58 is a normal move before 1703.58. 1210.58 or 1703.67 is going to happen. What one happens first is the question. Pa has already retraced 50% or more since the bottom.

It also has achieved 1591.98. A smaller target.. I dont think I posted these. I didnt track gold in a few years. Often after a target is reached such as 1591.98. Pa will tend to retrace. Gold reached 1591.98 in early January. On Friday it approached 1591.98 again. I would pay attention on its ability to close above 1591 or not. I dont know whats going to happen. China demand for gold may curve. China and India may put resources toward the flu. If one is sick, resources would tend to go to getting healthy. Governments could free up some gold reserves for the health expense. I really dont know. I do know often things dont go like the masses think. To me the up move has already achieved to areas of attraction. On the other side, 1210.58 may have its gravity. Plus the 50% retrace attraction.

I dont track gold much. I was a little bored tonight. Fudi wise, up makes sense atm. I can see that. Tech wise, a pullback would be healthy. At least in the way I track techs. Fundi's could change to the less Asia demand. As the flu travels through China and India. A lot of gold demand is for ceremonial purposes in Asia. Such as weddings and so forth. India and China lead the world in consumer gold demand.. China is second to India in consumer gold demand. China demand is greater than the next 8 countries in gold demand. China's demand is dwarfed by India's demand. India and China cities are concentrated. People are in close confines in many cities. A pandemic move through Chindia could drop gold to 1210 pretty quick.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #50,779
  • Edited 2:26am Feb 1, 2020 2:05am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting DMA Trader
missed the close. i could have close the last long on EU +10 but on big swapp loss. i guess it can go to 1.12 or even 1.126 i am net short imho all has to do with Corona. at this point USX will go the same direction with SPX Stocks up dollar up
Look at the daily or weekly chart. EU may form a bigger head and shoulders pattern. If it is forming the right shoulder then we might get 118x and then a dump to 1.088x area. Two days in a row we had bull candles with huge volume.

Let's see if we open with a gap down.
  • #50,780
  • Feb 1, 2020 2:10am Feb 1, 2020 2:10am
Fundis could change, to a gold selloff. I would pay attention to India's flu outlook. https://www.investopedia.com/news/to...-gold-jewelry/
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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