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How to avoid stopp loss...anyone doing that? 52 replies

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Nat Gas anyone?

  • #321
  • Jan 28, 2020 9:51am Jan 28, 2020 9:51am
It would appear the first round of selling is stopping out and prices are rising as a result. The floor of this range is holding. If prices can rise into and fill the gap marked here...I think another big round of buying will occur causing price to rise further.
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  • #322
  • Jan 30, 2020 12:09pm Jan 30, 2020 12:09pm
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #323
  • Jan 30, 2020 12:20pm Jan 30, 2020 12:20pm
My Long isn't looking too good right now...most of the buyers have stopped out...I'm wondering if this is just a flush...but I guess I'll have to wait to see what Friday brings
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  • #324
  • Jan 30, 2020 12:28pm Jan 30, 2020 12:28pm
Quoting DonPato
My Long isn't looking too good right now...most of the buyers have stopped out...I'm wondering if this is just a flush...but I guess I'll have to wait to see what Friday brings {image}
Im not ready to go long just yet Don.....want to see some bullsih signal come through atleast on the m15 before i look to load long and trail....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #325
  • Jan 30, 2020 1:53pm Jan 30, 2020 1:53pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Im not ready to go long just yet Don.....want to see some bullsih signal come through atleast on the m15 before i look to load long and trail....
Yes..it's starting to look a little premature for longs...but at least it's a clean miss.
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  • #326
  • Jan 30, 2020 8:18pm Jan 30, 2020 8:18pm
Well, it is never “clear” when a jumpback correction is turning to a price reversal - last time the prices touched 1.6 - there were no “writings on the wall” - it just started to climb and went beyond 3.0. I usually tend to look at the price levels instead of charts - there is now way price under 2 is sustainable for gas producing companies and with the first company to tumble - the prices will skyrocket again.
  • #327
  • Edited 4:13am Jan 31, 2020 3:58am | Edited 4:13am
Quoting DonPato
My Long isn't looking too good right now...most of the buyers have stopped out...I'm wondering if this is just a flush...but I guess I'll have to wait to see what Friday brings {image}
This long may play out right...if the low of the big "Pinbar" @ 1.796 that started this consolidation holds! But I think it would be more confirming if price breaks it and closes back above it with good effort. That mean earlier buyers are supporting it, and new ones see it valuable point to buy into. This will look like a failure test aka Double bottom. Any close on daily time frame below this low is really bad...but it was interesting study to see as Don picked this level for long...he pulled out such a trick on USDJPY not long ago, selling into a breakout above major resistance that most technical analyst would expect to hold, but Don got it, it failed and collapse back below.

like he says, a clean miss, still a chance if that pinbar holds!
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  • #328
  • Jan 31, 2020 11:42am Jan 31, 2020 11:42am
A little hope shines in the darkness...
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Yesterday it was clear that longs (buyers) has lost and were stopped out. However, a new wave of buying has ensued today in the same area where longs stopped out, pushing price back above, the "support" area. I will most likely move my stop higher to reduce risk, and see how this plays out on Monday.

Things to note: Today is the last day of Jan - 2020. A new futures contract just came online this week. And the winter cold (read "polar vortex") has yet to be fully realized. We are still in the throws of what is still a colder than usual winter.
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  • #329
  • Jan 31, 2020 11:45am Jan 31, 2020 11:45am
Quoting danasa
{quote} This long may play out right...if the low of the big "Pinbar" @ 1.796 that started this consolidation holds! But I think it would be more confirming if price breaks it and closes back above it with good effort. That mean earlier buyers are supporting it, and new ones see it valuable point to buy into. This will look like a failure test aka Double bottom. Any close on daily time frame below this low is really bad...but it was interesting study to see as Don picked this level for long...he pulled out such a trick on USDJPY not long ago, selling...
Just a quick note to let you know...this is one of your best analyses. You are really progressing well...Congrats and keep up the good work.
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  • #330
  • Jan 31, 2020 3:33pm Jan 31, 2020 3:33pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Just a quick note to let you know...this is one of your best analyses. You are really progressing well...Congrats and keep up the good work.
Thanks, learning this order flow thing slowly from you. Quite a mind twister to get to a point of clearer picture with it...still on it.
  • #331
  • Feb 3, 2020 12:56pm Feb 3, 2020 12:56pm
Another attack on new low on H4
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #332
  • Feb 4, 2020 1:19pm Feb 4, 2020 1:19pm
Looks like a new wave of buying is taking place near the lows after the last attack noted above by LI1979. It is looking more and more that a new and lower ranged has formed, but once again the buying near the top is being absorbed...at least that's how it looks right now....I remain optimistic that my longs may just yet start working... The aggregate position is currently at break even
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  • #333
  • Feb 5, 2020 10:40am Feb 5, 2020 10:40am
Still using my awareness...

I have actually gone to many previous past data/instances of Trading Ranges(TR) and found out something unique. When you drop down to lower time frames, they sub divide into smaller ranges/regions, 2 - 3 regions mostly, and occasionally 4 regions. Each of this regions is scalpers range trading zones, but institutional accumulation zones.

Our current NATGAS is 2 regions. And since price drops down into the second region, it is starting to show buyers taking more initiative passively accumulating seller offer. Those areas with doji candles are called indecision candles, far from indecision, they are accumulation zone! practically, buyers bring out their sack bags to take from sellers the "Junk" they are eagerly throwing away! SELLING ABSORPTION! The more it extends the more it is truly is accumulation. If it broke below after that, then you would know buyer likely gave up, but it held here twice!

I think a possible stop haunt, intentional or not, may happen where price dips below this level and closes back up, then price rise into the 1st Half and climb out of the D1 trading range defined by the pin bar's Spread.

The Don, I know, I am using lots of "Price Structure" which you are not a fan but is in view with "Market Structure" manifestation. Please correct my views, where it is perceived wrongly.
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  • #334
  • Feb 5, 2020 11:21am Feb 5, 2020 11:21am
Quoting danasa
... The Don, I know, I am using lots of "Price Structure" which you are not a fan but is in view with "Market Structure" manifestation. Please correct my views, where it is perceived wrongly. {image}
You have uncovered the "range within the range". Well done! This is also the 1-2 wave count I was telling you about long ago. Two waves up...two waves down...with the small "range" or "pause" in between. Expand this view to the larger charts and VIOLA! Trading bias
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  • #335
  • Feb 5, 2020 11:36am Feb 5, 2020 11:36am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} You have uncovered the "range within the range". Well done! This is also the 1-2 wave count I was telling you about long ago. Two waves up...two waves down...with the small "range" or "pause" in between. Expand this view to the larger charts and VIOLA! Trading bias
Yes, they are starting to fall into places via self discovery! I have annotated your previous screenshot. Is that sellers starting to give up at the bottom? And wasn't that order flow inversion? is it normal for price to plunge below order flow inversion level after it prints?
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  • #336
  • Feb 5, 2020 11:54am Feb 5, 2020 11:54am
Quoting danasa
... And wasn't that order flow inversion? is it normal for price to plunge below order flow inversion level after it prints?
Order flow inversion is my term...but that's not it. I have termed it that way because it seemed obvious that it is not the"normal" order flow. But what you have noted is NOT this condition. The selling in the middle circle are the longs stopping out...FU stop? Perhaps. The fact that price continues to range shows a relatively balanced order flow still. Which side will break? Who knows...pick a side and roll the dice. I'm long from the earlier range and am wondering still if I might still be a bit early for the buy side... I'm pretty confident there is very little down side left...BUT... I've been wrong before.
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  • #337
  • Feb 5, 2020 12:00pm Feb 5, 2020 12:00pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Order flow inversion is my term...but that's not it. I have termed it that way because it seemed obvious that it is not the"normal" order flow. But what you have noted is NOT this condition. The selling in the middle circle are the longs stopping out...FU stop? Perhaps. The fact that price continues to range shows a relatively balanced order flow still. Which side will break? Who knows...pick a side and roll the dice. I'm long from the earlier range and am wondering still if I might still be a bit early for the buy side... I'm pretty confident...
Thanks for the reply! This Delta chart needs serious hand holding to read it. It simply is powerful visualizing order flow, but without someone like you hand holding in coaching, it can be very evasive. For now, I still see more with price chart, but I know once I am schooled on this delta chart reading, it will be very useful. Thanks for your time, you have been a great guy. Good luck to us,...yes us...I got long too! I believe the downside is over...and institutions are accumulating below that psych. level of 2.00 for a rally. All probabilities, anything can happen as you point out. Green pips.
  • #338
  • Feb 6, 2020 12:44pm Feb 6, 2020 12:44pm
Yesterday's price action is showing what might be considered an "order flow inversion" Again this is my term and you will not find it anywhere else (to my knowledge). It is basically a condition where price has no where to go, as seen in the marked candle from yesterday. Buying absorption at the highs, and selling absorption at the lows. This particular day finished as a doji but that is not always the case either. I can only best describe it as "anomalous order flow". Something's wrong with it, and as a result is often marks the end of a particular move...
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This is NOT the typical inversion that I have observed in the past, but it comes at the right place and after a long move down.

And for those who do NOT look at delta volume histograms...this is how this same candle looks on a price chart with a Delta Volume indicator at the bottoms...this is a tell tale sign of "change".
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Note the drastic difference in tick volume and the Delta volume. While tick activity is rising, the Delta Selling (Net selling) is practically non-existent, even though there were, technically speaking, more selling volume than buying.
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  • #339
  • Feb 9, 2020 4:18am Feb 9, 2020 4:18am
Hi Don, for natural gas, why don't you base your analysis on real volume of futures NG but instead on tick volume of CFD ?
  • #340
  • Feb 9, 2020 10:27am Feb 9, 2020 10:27am
Quoting pooh123
Hi Don, for natural gas, why don't you base your analysis on real volume of futures NG but instead on tick volume of CFD ?
Great point! Futures are traded on a centralised exchange (meaning all volume is seen) while CFDs are traded decentralised (otc).
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
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