This thread was born with the idea of sharing a private investor's vision of commodities markets.
All comments are welcome.
Natural Gas Back To The Futures. Trip On The Border Of $2 MMBtu
Thirty years of technological development.
Natural Gas is a commodity characterized by high volatility and closely linked to seasonal aspects.
Or at least that's what we've always known about it.
In the past thirty years the fundamentals of the gas market, its structure and characteristics have changed radically.
Technological development has allowed modifying 2 crucial aspects:
- extraction through Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking)
- distribution thanks to the liquefaction process. ( LNG)
The use of hydraulic fracturing for the extraction of Oil and Natural Gas has significantly increased production, consequently lowering consumer prices. Since the early 2000s natural gas has proved to be cheaper, less volatile and with lower greenhouse gas emissions, overtaking coal in energy production. About two-thirds of the United States' oil and gas are produced by fracking.
Liquefied Natural Gas ( LNG) is obtained by subjecting Natural Gas ( NG) to appropriate treatments that make it a transparent and odorless liquid with a specific volume of about 600 times less than the initial product. It is evident that this process has surprisingly greatly expanded the distribution range of Natural Gas, previously referred to as the dependencies of the American pipeline network, while it is now able to travel all over the world onboard LNG carriers.
Cheap Natural Gas has led to a doubling of the share of energy produced with hydroelectric, wind and solar technologies, which have long suffered from high costs for the construction of the plants.
Seasonality and Volatility, an indissoluble relationship?
As we have anticipated, natural gas is a seasonal product, so the price varies according to the season and the different needs for the use of the raw material.
We can summarize saying that the price tends to reach its annual minimum in July and its maximum at the end of November / December. Within this movement we can highlight 3 distinct trends:
- bullish from mid-February to late April
- bearish from May to July
- bullish from July to the end of November
The main reason for this can be explained by the fact that as production companies anticipate the need for utilities to produce more electricity to handle air-conditioning demand, we'll have higher prices in early summer, and then to an increase during the end of the year when starting the winter heating cycle.
A certain part of this seasonal volatility has decreased compared to previous years due to the growth of the market.
Briefly, we can say that since 2008 the NG has not been traded above $ 10 for MMBtu (Million British thermal unit) and since 2014 the $ 5 level is only a distant memory.
Current situation and its possible outlooks.
In the last year, Natural Gas has lost almost 60% of its value, putting a negative performance behind the other.
The progressive drop in prices we are witnessing is caused by a super production from the United States and a warmer than expected winter (2018/2019). (Mild winter = Less use of gas for heating).
This has therefore generated high inventory levels for the current year. Natural Gas inventories as of January 3, 2020 were 19.8% higher than last year, which helped bring natural gas futures prices to their 2016 lows. (Source U.S. Energy Information Administration)
While I'm writing I have the NG card in front of me, with its closing on Friday January 17 at $ 1.9970 and the opening on Monday 20, with a bearish gap (It hasn't covered the gap and seems not to be the time to do that yet), which brought the price to $ 1.8360 support created in March 2016.
We, therefore, broke the $ 2.00 level, a more psychological than a technical threshold, sailing us into an area that we hadn't seen in the last 4 years.
In early November the price boost to 2.7500 making the year top and an interesting divergence, that drive NG downward to 2.2500 in just 3 weeks.
The Triangle Breakout that occurred and the subsequent BPC pattern (Breakout - Pull Back - Continuation) does not bode well for the bulls in the short term.
Moreover, as we said earlier, the seasonality and experience of previous years teach us that until mid-February it is not safe to go into purchasing operations.
It is far more reasonable to follow the clues trading what we see on the charts.
So my vision is still short for weeks to come.
The target of $ 1.7500, support of February 2016, is on the way yet.
When it is reached it will be time to understand whether to take full profit or leave a small part of the trade still open for subsequent possible downwards.
It is clear that, if we find ourselves in mid-February with the price kissing $ 1.7500, we will close our Short positions in preparation for the likely bullish rally.
It's a real Black Swan? How markets have performed during viral outbreaks.
The outbreak of coronavirus in China has led to concerns over a slowdown in the US economy, putting pressure on oil, stocks, and commodities.
But it's the Black Swan about all talking about?
The degree by which markets have been mostly immune (for now -1% / -2%) to the coronavirus is linear with the Wall Street behavior.
Historically the reaction to outbreaks is different from expectations.
The S&P 500 in 2003 made a +14.59% after the first occurrence of SARS.
12 months later the broad-market benchmark was up 20.76% (Dow Jones Market Data)
Last week JPM Commodities Research said"We estimate a price shock of up to $5 (a barrel) if the crisis develops into a SARS style epidemic based on historical oil price movements,", while Goldman Sachs attest the Oil falls around $3.
“While estimates at this point remain highly uncertain and we take no view on its development, we leverage the 2003 SARS epidemic to illustrate the potential impact on oil demand,” Goldman Sachs added.
At the time, Bloomberg recalls, Asian airlines registered an 8-percent decline in annual traffic, according to data from the International Air Transport Association, but carriers elsewhere were much less affected.
So, while the actual effect on demand for jet fuel and, related to it, crude oil, would be limited, it is the uncertainty about demand prospects that may drive prices down.
The total oil demand loss would translate into a modest $2.90 per barrel impact on oil prices, based on Goldman Sachs pricing model.
According to IATA Economics data “On the other hand, the 2005 and 2013 episodes of avian flu had a much milder and short-lived impact and air travel rebounded quickly as the fears of the global spread of virus eased. “
The jet fuel price ended last week down 3.0% at $76.63/bbl
Many analysts believe the economic effects on global GDP from the spread of the coronavirus will be temporary.
I think that the downward movement is not ended yet, but the game will be played when we'll have real data about the virus.
The absence of reliable data only generates fear and uncertainty, which are very strong levers for speculation.
I wonder how much oil would need to fall from this virus for OPEC to act.
Oil never waked up after the 2014 crisis.
Nat Gas till the end of February is relegated to the south,
The Virus's impact on these two commodities is marginal in the long time view.
On a weekly or daily basis, maybe, but it's helping the price to do faster something that was already in the sights...
Wired for the Future: How Copper Became the Artery of the Green Economy
Copper has quietly become the new oil of the global economy, the metal powering decarbonization, inflation, and industrial resilience.
Once seen as a dull industrial material, it is now the backbone of electrification: every EV, solar array, and AI data center depends on it.
Prices above $4.50 per pound and near-record-low inventories reveal a hard truth: the energy transition is not immaterial.
Mines cannot keep up with the political tempo of green spending, and production is increasingly concentrated in Chile, Peru, and China,
a fragile geometry of dependence.
Like oil in the past century, copper now sets the pulse of growth and inflation.
When inventories fall, markets fear not an oil shock but a green inflation shock, slower growth, higher input costs, and new dilemmas for central banks.
Technically, the long-term Renko structure remains bullish as long as the $4.50–4.60 zone holds, showing the resilience of the uptrend despite weak macro data.
Behind the chart lies the new equation of progress: every rally reflects confidence in the future, every correction reminds us that sustainability has limits.
Copper is not just a commodity.
It is the price tag of progress.
For those who’d like to explore the full piece, you can find it here:
https://medium.com/insiderfinance/wi...y-ec9de575ef31
Copper has quietly become the new oil of the global economy, the metal powering decarbonization, inflation, and industrial resilience.
Once seen as a dull industrial material, it is now the backbone of electrification: every EV, solar array, and AI data center depends on it.
Prices above $4.50 per pound and near-record-low inventories reveal a hard truth: the energy transition is not immaterial.
Mines cannot keep up with the political tempo of green spending, and production is increasingly concentrated in Chile, Peru, and China,
a fragile geometry of dependence.
Like oil in the past century, copper now sets the pulse of growth and inflation.
When inventories fall, markets fear not an oil shock but a green inflation shock, slower growth, higher input costs, and new dilemmas for central banks.
Technically, the long-term Renko structure remains bullish as long as the $4.50–4.60 zone holds, showing the resilience of the uptrend despite weak macro data.
Behind the chart lies the new equation of progress: every rally reflects confidence in the future, every correction reminds us that sustainability has limits.
Copper is not just a commodity.
It is the price tag of progress.
For those who’d like to explore the full piece, you can find it here:
https://medium.com/insiderfinance/wi...y-ec9de575ef31
China’s quiet return to US soybeans: Trade thaw or climate diplomacy?
A subtle gesture before a major summit
After months of silence in the grain corridor, Beijing has quietly resumed purchases of American soybeans.
Three cargoes, about 180,000 tonnes, were booked by COFCO last week, marking the first US sales of the 2025–26 season.
The timing is not casual: it comes just days before the Trump–Xi summit, and the signal goes far beyond agriculture.
For a commodity that once symbolized the US–China trade war, soybeans have once again become the stage for a quiet form of power politics.
This is not about volume, but about symbolism.
By returning to US origins, China is showing both strategic flexibility and climate realism — two rare forms of pragmatism in a year dominated by tariffs, sanctions, and tech restrictions.
Soybeans as strategy
China imports over 90 million tonnes of soybeans every year, roughly two-thirds of global trade.
Brazil has been the dominant supplier since 2022, but droughts, logistics, and fluctuating protein content have exposed the risks of single-source dependence.
When quality and reliability matter, the US remains the benchmark.
For Washington, soybeans are a diplomatic bridge that carries no political penalty — unlike semiconductors or rare earths, they are neutral, useful, and symbolic.
They allow both sides to signal goodwill without formal concessions, a form of détente conducted through trade flows instead of treaties.
Climate realism and market signals
Beyond geopolitics lies the climate angle.
South America’s weather disruptions under El Niño have tightened supplies of high-protein beans.
China’s renewed interest in US cargoes may be as much a hedge against climate volatility as a diplomatic gesture.
It reflects a broader truth: climate risk is now an economic variable that shapes trade, pricing, and alliances.
Market reaction
Chicago soybean futures (November 2025 contract) bounced back to 11,100 ¢/bushel, breaking the September 2024 high and confirming renewed upward momentum.
Renko structure remains constructive, with support around 10,800 ¢ and room toward 11,200–11,300 ¢.
It’s a small move in volume, but large in message, suggesting that the world’s largest buyer may be back in play.
Diplomacy through demand
Agriculture has become the quiet language of geopolitics.
Where oil once dictated power, food now delivers its subtler signals.
This “grain diplomacy” shows how climate, trade, and policy are merging into a single field of influence.
A few ships of grain can move markets as effectively as a policy speech.
For those who’d like to explore the full analysis:
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ch...y-202511040511
A subtle gesture before a major summit
After months of silence in the grain corridor, Beijing has quietly resumed purchases of American soybeans.
Three cargoes, about 180,000 tonnes, were booked by COFCO last week, marking the first US sales of the 2025–26 season.
The timing is not casual: it comes just days before the Trump–Xi summit, and the signal goes far beyond agriculture.
For a commodity that once symbolized the US–China trade war, soybeans have once again become the stage for a quiet form of power politics.
This is not about volume, but about symbolism.
By returning to US origins, China is showing both strategic flexibility and climate realism — two rare forms of pragmatism in a year dominated by tariffs, sanctions, and tech restrictions.
Soybeans as strategy
China imports over 90 million tonnes of soybeans every year, roughly two-thirds of global trade.
Brazil has been the dominant supplier since 2022, but droughts, logistics, and fluctuating protein content have exposed the risks of single-source dependence.
When quality and reliability matter, the US remains the benchmark.
For Washington, soybeans are a diplomatic bridge that carries no political penalty — unlike semiconductors or rare earths, they are neutral, useful, and symbolic.
They allow both sides to signal goodwill without formal concessions, a form of détente conducted through trade flows instead of treaties.
Climate realism and market signals
Beyond geopolitics lies the climate angle.
South America’s weather disruptions under El Niño have tightened supplies of high-protein beans.
China’s renewed interest in US cargoes may be as much a hedge against climate volatility as a diplomatic gesture.
It reflects a broader truth: climate risk is now an economic variable that shapes trade, pricing, and alliances.
Market reaction
Chicago soybean futures (November 2025 contract) bounced back to 11,100 ¢/bushel, breaking the September 2024 high and confirming renewed upward momentum.
Renko structure remains constructive, with support around 10,800 ¢ and room toward 11,200–11,300 ¢.
It’s a small move in volume, but large in message, suggesting that the world’s largest buyer may be back in play.
Diplomacy through demand
Agriculture has become the quiet language of geopolitics.
Where oil once dictated power, food now delivers its subtler signals.
This “grain diplomacy” shows how climate, trade, and policy are merging into a single field of influence.
A few ships of grain can move markets as effectively as a policy speech.
For those who’d like to explore the full analysis:
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ch...y-202511040511
- #14
- Last Post: Nov 18, 2025 10:17pm Nov 18, 2025 10:17pm
Silver’s Second Identity: How a Precious Metal Became a Strategic Resource
From safe haven to supply chain essential
Silver has quietly rewritten its place in the global economy.
Once viewed only as a monetary hedge, it is now emerging as one of the key materials of the clean-energy era.
The rally above 54.00 $, followed by a controlled pullback toward 52.60 $, reflects more than market noise — it captures the convergence of three structural forces: industrial demand, geopolitical competition, and the global energy transition.
For decades, silver lived in gold’s shadow. Today, it stands at the intersection of technology, energy, and strategy.
Industrial demand reshapes the market
Over half of global silver consumption now comes from industrial use — solar panels, EV components, medical equipment, and high-efficiency electronics.
Even during periods of weaker growth, photovoltaic installations in China, Europe, and the US continue to expand, providing a steady base of demand.
Mining output, by contrast, has stagnated under tighter environmental rules and declining ore grades, keeping the market structurally tight.
A new geopolitical dimension
In the global rivalry for technological and energy dominance, critical materials are the new strategic frontier.
Silver, though not officially labeled as such, is being treated as a de facto strategic resource.
Its conductivity and unique properties make substitution almost impossible in many clean-tech applications.
As China dominates solar manufacturing, Western economies are increasingly dependent on supply chains it influences — a dynamic that adds a quiet but real premium to silver’s price.
The energy transition connection
Every renewable megawatt needs a conductor; every EV and data center depends on silver’s efficiency.
Demand has become price-inelastic: even sharp price moves barely reduce consumption because silver’s share of total production cost is small.
It now behaves less like a speculative metal and more like a critical technology input.
Market structure and technical view
On the Renko chart, XAG/USD peaked near 54.38 $ before retracing to 52.35–52.50 $, maintaining support around 51.70 $.
Momentum divergence signaled a mild correction, but the broader structure remains bullish — higher lows, steady accumulation, and resistance near 53.20 $ with continuation potential toward 54–55 $.
The technical pattern mirrors the macro story: accumulation, not exhaustion.
The new identity of silver
Silver now stands on three pillars:
From safe haven to supply chain essential
Silver has quietly rewritten its place in the global economy.
Once viewed only as a monetary hedge, it is now emerging as one of the key materials of the clean-energy era.
The rally above 54.00 $, followed by a controlled pullback toward 52.60 $, reflects more than market noise — it captures the convergence of three structural forces: industrial demand, geopolitical competition, and the global energy transition.
For decades, silver lived in gold’s shadow. Today, it stands at the intersection of technology, energy, and strategy.
Industrial demand reshapes the market
Over half of global silver consumption now comes from industrial use — solar panels, EV components, medical equipment, and high-efficiency electronics.
Even during periods of weaker growth, photovoltaic installations in China, Europe, and the US continue to expand, providing a steady base of demand.
Mining output, by contrast, has stagnated under tighter environmental rules and declining ore grades, keeping the market structurally tight.
A new geopolitical dimension
In the global rivalry for technological and energy dominance, critical materials are the new strategic frontier.
Silver, though not officially labeled as such, is being treated as a de facto strategic resource.
Its conductivity and unique properties make substitution almost impossible in many clean-tech applications.
As China dominates solar manufacturing, Western economies are increasingly dependent on supply chains it influences — a dynamic that adds a quiet but real premium to silver’s price.
The energy transition connection
Every renewable megawatt needs a conductor; every EV and data center depends on silver’s efficiency.
Demand has become price-inelastic: even sharp price moves barely reduce consumption because silver’s share of total production cost is small.
It now behaves less like a speculative metal and more like a critical technology input.
Market structure and technical view
On the Renko chart, XAG/USD peaked near 54.38 $ before retracing to 52.35–52.50 $, maintaining support around 51.70 $.
Momentum divergence signaled a mild correction, but the broader structure remains bullish — higher lows, steady accumulation, and resistance near 53.20 $ with continuation potential toward 54–55 $.
The technical pattern mirrors the macro story: accumulation, not exhaustion.
The new identity of silver
Silver now stands on three pillars:
- Industrial indispensability
- Geopolitical significance
- Monetary relevance
It is no longer just a precious metal or an industrial input — it is a strategic commodity linking technology, policy, and capital.
Conclusion
Silver’s evolution from hedge to hub is already underway.
Each correction reveals long-term demand, not disinterest.
In an age of uncertainty, it has become the metal of interdependence, bridging energy, innovation, and finance.
For those who’d like to read the full analysis:
https://medium.com/insiderfinance/si...e-5a758f698c75