WTI Crude Oil Trading

WTI slumps to three-month low near $52 on China coronavirus contagion
27 January 2020, 11:51

 

1. WTI sellers extend control amid growing China coronavirus concerns.
2. Coronavirus contagion threatens global economic growth and dents risk.
3. Eyes on US weekly Crude Stock data and virus updates for fresh direction.

The selling pressure around WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) remains unabated so far this Monday, as the price crashed nearly 4% to $52.19 in the last hour, having reached the lowest levels since early October.
The prices started out the week on a negative note and continue to remain under heavy selling pressure, extending its week-long losing streak. Growing concerns over the rapid spread of the China coronavirus outbreak internationally as well as the negative impact this will have on the oil demand growth outlook weigh on the black gold. With the virus’s ability to spread, markets remain wary over its implications on the global economy.
Additionally, increased safe-haven demand for the US dollar across the board, in response to the coronavirus scare induced risk-off market profile, collaborates with weakness in the prices. A stronger greenback makes the USD-denominated oil expensive to the holders in foreign currencies.
Meanwhile, analysts at Goldman Sachs said in their latest note, “investor fears on oil demand have risen considerably, driven by unfavorable U.S. inventories and ... concerns on impact from the coronavirus outbreak.”
Looking ahead, the latest updates on the China coronavirus outbreak will continue to influence the broader market sentiment and dollar trades, eventually impacting the barrel of WTI. Markets also look forward to the US weekly Crude Stocks Change data due later this week for near-term trading direction.

Always a big gamble holding any position over the weekend. Shorted for a few on the opening. Not sure where to next

I see this going to 50.45.
However buying is coming in and I like the resistance discount at 53.80 there. This is where we retailers can go wrong imo. Sometimes this is a good buy to the premium price for shorts and sometimes its not BECAUSE obviously its against oil environment, into supply etc. There is also a great resistance level here at 52.80. Would not surprise to see this hover here for an hour or four and then boom to 50.45. Point being do you really want to buy this because its cheap / oversold rsi? Price funnily enough has very little to do with market value. . it COULD go up 1 dollar from here yes but thats a 50/50 dangerous gamble.
So what to do? imo dont trade it. Even great demand from bottom edges. Let em go. Wait for everything to line up. Then its NOT a gamble. Its almost a sure thing. And reality is unless you have a 90%+ strategy, youll fail in this game. Keep taking 50/50s sure and you may bring that upto 70% for awhile but only a matter of time before youre out. Take quality only.

Really hope this holds and they can take it to 5380 for a massive sell off tomorrow. but i fear 5280 might be it.

Excellent trading analysis. I keep it simple trading oil though. I wait for a decent drop then buy every dollar down and take profit every two dollars up. Reload as needed. I don't use leverage so I can afford to be patient.

Some volume/activity coming in, could be a rise afoot, D

I think that the trade from 10days ago is now clear... It wasn't suppose to go up.. but it did... It paid HEAVY price now... no pun So wanted to show you how in retrospect everything can be changed... Also, was suspecting this but wasn't sure.. as it was very hard to be sure at that time when it climbed like it has no intention to go down

I don't think this will bounce. will probably continue going down later as the coronavirus continues to spread rapidly in china

Was a perfect time to buy oil but fundamentally it continued with bear movement cause of Coronavirus.Once the dust settles,oil flyyyyyyy

I don't recommend trading oil at this stage, it's 50/50

Nothings changed imo. Sellside ONLY to 50.45. FROM 53.80-54.40 zone (SPOT). If exh /abs and env confirms of course.

PS. this COULD go down from here. But SO WHAT IF IT DOES?. Demand a discount/premium for your trades. Dont get it? big deal. SO many others to come. Majority of trades will get that discount/premium. Eliminate FOMO by knowing your discount levels in line with bias and not comprimising under any circumstance. Or youll be chasing. Selling bottom edges. Buying top edges. Being a dumb retail breakout trader.

Oil has been drifting up all day. Soon to be released data may actually bump oil up or at least give some indication where to next

Yeah man, I suspect some up-spike/bump SOON (enough for 100%/trade if you have been following cheetah), but ENTRY is up to you... Not saying this UP will last but will last enough to get you 100%/trade and be maybe DONE for the whole 2020, if you would time it right and your goal was (just) that (100% return for 2020), for the year

+ Buy signal is detected. Good luck to all
Be careful with the entry tho.

WTI: Probes three-day high around $54.25 on risk reset/API data, EIA stocks in focus
29 January 2020, 06:31

 

1. WTI rises more than 1.00%, up for the second day in a row.
2. Receding pessimism concerning China’s coronavirus, upbeat manufacturing data and API inventories help the energy benchmark.
3. Today’s EIA inventories and Fed Interest Rate decision will be the key to watch.

WTI takes the bids to $54.25 with 1.15% gains while heading into the European session on Wednesday. The energy benchmark extends the previous days’ gains amid cautiously optimistic trade sentiment as well as following upbeat private stockpile data.
The latest Crude Oil Stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) suggest a draw of 4.27 million barrels against an earlier increase of 1.6 million barrels. The data helps forecast today’s official inventory numbers from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ended on January 24. Forecasts suggest an increase of 0.46 million barrels versus the previous contraction of 0.405 million barrels.
Also supporting the energy benchmark’s pullback is the hope that the Chinese government will be able to tackle the coronavirus problem that’s likely to peak in the next ten days.
Further to the oil buyers’ favor are recently positive manufacturing data from the US as well as increased odds of sustained monetary policy easing elsewhere.
It’s worth mentioning that Tuesday’s pullback could be mainly because of the speculations that the OPEC-led alliance, mostly known as OPEC+, will extend global production cuts. Moreover, tensions in the Middle East also contribute to oil price recovery.
Technical Analysis
The November 20, 2019 low near $54.85 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the commodity’s August 2019 to January 2020 upside, at $56.25, act as the near-term upside barriers. On the downside, the recent low of $52.15 and an upward sloping trend line since August 07, 2019, at $51.65 now, can please the sellers during fresh declines.