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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #5,421
  • Jan 24, 2020 8:30am Jan 24, 2020 8:30am
Quoting Jazz1964
I just want to say before the weekend starts, that I developed a deep understanding of the GU moves by studying the EMA26 swings and bounces on TF's between H4 and M5. Last two days in that tight range, then that move up to the M15 EMA swing high in div's made the finished business and started the move down. From there amazing to see the Bears found support on M5. Thank you Allan! You are allowed to take a beer today, cheers I am trading quite cautious on small risk but I double my account in two weeks. I can tell you my best month was...
Jazz
Well done and thanks for the feedback.

I have just started using this method . Sadly I live in Uk and can only trade the london opening a few days here and there.
Still learning this method but i can see the potential and trying to use it on higher time frame.


Blessings to you all

Have a good weekend.
  • #5,422
  • Jan 24, 2020 10:38am Jan 24, 2020 10:38am
Quoting KevinOwens
{quote} That's very encouraging to hear. Thanks for your contribution. I am on my way of picking up this method. Alan's and your posts help a lot. I have a small request for you. Yesterday was very chaotic and tough for me. Can you please show/tell how you would have dealt with yesterday's market and trades and achieve the target?
Yes, yesterday with that tight range was difficult when you (like me) missed the initial trade before 108.

Look at my charts,
H1 ZOO's, which did work again, before 108 bar a nice Long at the double bottom from the Asian session. Look at the M5 for the HD div which would give the Entry Long and a nice move Up. I missed it completely because I wanted to see the H1 EMA. That's one of my errors; expecting price to get to a level I want. The 2 Bar Test and the Div should have been my wake up call.

At this point (before 108 bar) I expected a continued upmove into 1.3206 (H1 Swing High).

But we came soon into the highs of the Asian session with div's from H1 and lower TF's (reason to close any Long, or hedge). I took a 2-step Short with a bit of loss, but still saw the Div's into the ZOO and was able to get in a 3-step Short which brought a nice winner.

At that point in time, M15 made a higher EMA Swing Low and M5 was about to print a lower EMA Swing High. We could expect a problematic session.
From there on I saw M15 turning grey again trying a higher EMA Swing Low, while M5 made a higher Swing Low. With a clear HD. I bought it on a 2-bar test break. 2-Step Entry, then the ZOO again which was tricky, M5 div's exit. Earned some pips again. And enough to call it a day in that market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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*) When I look back to that chart, I have to say I don't like the Short Entry at the golden star. The blue upbar was too bullish, no 2-Bar Test whatsoever. I rather would have taken an entry one bar later, at a worse price with a bit extra loss.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,423
  • Jan 24, 2020 10:49am Jan 24, 2020 10:49am
Is this a correct ABCD projection?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 132 KB
  • #5,424
  • Jan 24, 2020 11:05am Jan 24, 2020 11:05am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Yes, yesterday with that tight range was difficult when you (like me) missed the initial trade before 108. Look at my charts, H1 ZOO's, which did work again, before 108 bar a nice Long at the double bottom from the Asian session. Look at the M5 for the HD div which would give the Entry Long and a nice move Up. I missed it completely because I wanted to see the H1 EMA. That's one of my errors; expecting price to get to a level I want. The 2 Bar Test and the Div should have been my wake up call. At this point (before 108 bar) I expected a...
Thanks a ton for the detailed explanation. Your second long entry was at a Div. Don't you think that was risky?
  • #5,425
  • Jan 24, 2020 11:29am Jan 24, 2020 11:29am
Quoting KevinOwens
{quote} Thanks a ton for the detailed explanation. Your second long entry was at a Div. Don't you think that was risky?
Look at the swings, higher lows om m5 and m15.
And the pinbar on HD.
Of course my exit was because of divs.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,426
  • Jan 24, 2020 12:01pm Jan 24, 2020 12:01pm
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Look at the swings, higher lows om m5 and m15. And the pinbar on HD. Of course my exit was because of divs.
Got it thanks. Would you say that if I entered at the HD itself, is that a risky entry?
  • #5,427
  • Edited Jan 25, 2020 1:03am Jan 24, 2020 11:34pm | Edited Jan 25, 2020 1:03am
Quoting KevinOwens
{quote} Got it thanks. Would you say that if I entered at the HD itself, is that a risky entry?
I was far too late to enter! I did it on the bar close. I remember I wasn't at the screen for a bit of time, returned and saw this HD + Pin. Sorry, I should have marked that on my chart.
Allan wrote: We don't take HD on the close, we take them when they actually run into regular divergence. And then they snap back.

This gives us a very good entry price, at a ZOO where we expect price to go in our favor. If we are wrong, the risk can be super tight, especially with a 3-step entry (meaning our first position is at 1/6th of the lotsize we normally would take).

If you guys need to read such rules again or for the first time, be sure to read the PDF compiled by DavidMaree.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/dvvk1ff0ex...posts.pdf?dl=0
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,428
  • Edited 1:14am Jan 25, 2020 12:58am | Edited 1:14am
Here is a possible breakdown of yesterdays chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And look how nice the second leg of the sell off was an exact measured move from the first leg:
Attached Image

(no '50% boxes' added to the pic)
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,429
  • Jan 25, 2020 1:16am Jan 25, 2020 1:16am
Quoting Jazz1964
Here is a possible breakdown of yesterdays chart {image}
morning Jazz, did you get your pips yesterday on the longs or the shorts? I saw that bear support but not beeing greedy and let it go.
  • #5,430
  • Jan 25, 2020 1:21am Jan 25, 2020 1:21am
Quoting huskyboy
{quote} morning Jazz, did you get your pips yesterday on the longs or the shorts? I saw that bear support but not beeing greedy and let it go.
Nopes, I wasn't sharp at all. Just a small profit.
I took the first Short for a small loss.
Then the second Short for a nice profit.
Then a small loss on a first Long.
Then a 2 step Long which I closed too early.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,431
  • Jan 25, 2020 2:11am Jan 25, 2020 2:11am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Nopes, I wasn't sharp at all. Just a small profit. I took the first Short for a small loss. Then the second Short for a nice profit. Then a small loss on a first Long. Then a 2 step Long which I closed too early.
end off the week perhaps
and another fine entry, M5 ran twice into that ZOO with a divergence, first time it stopped at its EMA, second time with a HD it broke its EMA and both price and RSI found resistance and BAMM to the lower EMA H1 swing low
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  • #5,432
  • Jan 26, 2020 3:20am Jan 26, 2020 3:20am
H4 price projections with bear support. Look at the upper D and the high of that wick, excactly the same.
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  • #5,433
  • Jan 27, 2020 2:40am Jan 27, 2020 2:40am
Day is done for me.
H1 Divergence brought price back to its EMA. That was my expectation, therefor bought the market.
Then at the H1 EMA looking for a reason on M5 to short it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Lot sizing:
Long with 3-phase entries as per the risk rules.
2nd Long and the short with complete risk.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,434
  • Jan 27, 2020 4:41am Jan 27, 2020 4:41am
great trading Jazz !!!!
for me price isn't doing what I expected it to be doing, at least a pullback to the H1 EMA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,435
  • Jan 27, 2020 4:47am Jan 27, 2020 4:47am
Quoting huskyboy
great trading Jazz !!!! for me price isn't doing what I expected it to be doing, at least a pullback to the H1 EMA {image}
Very good you kept it tight!
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,436
  • Jan 27, 2020 4:51am Jan 27, 2020 4:51am
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Very good you kept it tight!
isn't price in a bearish mode, H1/M15/M30 all bearish so for that I was only searching bearish entries on the M5 or am I missing something? I know H1 is now above its EMA
  • #5,437
  • Jan 27, 2020 7:17am Jan 27, 2020 7:17am
Quoting huskyboy
{quote} isn't price in a bearish mode, H1/M15/M30 all bearish so for that I was only searching bearish entries on the M5 or am I missing something? I know H1 is now above its EMA
I think we first have to see that the market is getting tighter:
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Your main idea was the H4 with the Bears found support. That was agood point but we got to think on what we see from the Average Swings.

Around 108 we had bull Divs on all TF's. That's why I dared to buy into the H1 EMA and Sell from there, but carefully.
Bears could not find support, instead Bulls on M5 found support and brought Price to the next ZOO (which I had not printed). In the picture below you can see that at the letter A.
A question you can ask yourself at that moment: will the bulls be able to pull the H1 EMA up to make a new HH (above B)?
I don't think so, right there at that point in time.
So that Short would have been good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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M5 Bear Div there, so it is completely valid to short that.
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Overall I think it was not bad at all to keep your stops tight, with the H1 EMA priniting a higher Swing Low. But keep the bigger picture in mind from the first picture in this post: market is converging. That's where we are right now.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #5,438
  • Jan 27, 2020 12:56pm Jan 27, 2020 12:56pm
Thx for the explanations Jazz...

You said : "M5 Bear Div there, so it is completely valid to short that." And it was at a ZOO!

My H4 for now, bears couldn't hold that bear support and price tested the 50% zone, a ZOO on the H1 as Jazz posted but failed to make it to that EMA swing high at 1,31307 and felt with a bear rsi/rsi back below its EMA. Now it seems the H4 EMA swing is going for a LL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,439
  • Jan 27, 2020 1:15pm Jan 27, 2020 1:15pm
ooooohhh didn't notice this this morning, ABCD H1 and by now its filled (the green one). You have to be so focused ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,440
  • Jan 27, 2020 1:59pm Jan 27, 2020 1:59pm
Quoting huskyboy
ooooohhh didn't notice this this morning, ABCD H1 and by now its filled (the green one). You have to be so focused ... {image}
What about this HuskyMan?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
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