US GDP - Oct 27

Quoting BurgerKing

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I was asleep when the rumor of a lower GDP of 1.8% went around the floor. It shorted the USD and GBPUSD went up from 1.8880s to 1.8920s.

If my experience serves me right, this GDP report is an "initial" report covering July, August and September data..? If so this will cause volatility like it did last July's GDP report.

Let me analyze the pieces of the puzzle looking at some data:

Retail Sales (said to be 70% of GDP)
Jul 1.4
Aug 0.2
Sep -0.4

Durable Goods
Jul: -2.4
Aug -0.5
Sep 7.8 (large boeing order)

CPI
Jul 0.2
Aug 0.2
Sep 0.2

Housing Data is a little skewed. Home sales may be a little up but the price is down.

Seems like GDP is indeed falling.

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Quoting trucco

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Hi BurgerKing,

where did you see this was a rumor ?
Thanks

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[IFR Forex Watch] [GBP/USD OUTLOOK]

[19:43 GMT October 26] Cable soared today, clearing 1.8865 recent range tops early in US trade this morning and never looking back. The lack of urgency from the FOMC on inflation yesterday gave the market carte-blanch to lower US yields and weaken the USD. Weak US data added to the bearish USD mood as did the upbeat comments in the FT this morning from PM-apparent Brown. Greenspan weighed in on a shift toward the EUR and away from the USD, hurting the greenback as well. 1.8900 barriers but up a fight but eventually yielded. Cable shot to 1.8926 before stalling and consolidating above 1.8900. US GDP prospects were downgraded today ahead of tomorrow"s report. 2.2% is the consensus estimate, but talk of 1.8% made the rounds during the US afternoon. The market is extremely bearish at the moment, suggesting the easy money in cable has been made. 1.8865 is key support on dips near-term; small trailing stops are eyed below that level. 1.8855/65 is near-term resistance above 1.8925. We would not be surprised to hear talk of 1.8950 barriers along the way. [email protected] /rs

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I'm holding on a small GBP/USD 4 mini lots long position, just for fun.
SL @ 1.8885 with 20 pip trail, TP @ 1.8950 just below resistance area between 8950/60.
I would like to see what will happen during the asian session.

Quoting jonesla9

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Does anyone have any forecast of what will happen in the market with this one?

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USD TRADING: THE DOLLAR BULLS HAVE GIVEN UP FOR THE TIME BEING; THEY WERE HANGING THEIR HAT ON THE FOMC STATEMENT; IT DIDN'T COME THROUGH - BANK OF NEW YORK ANALYST
**Note: Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at the Bank of New York

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TTN analysis: If US GDP is a weak number, that should have a far bigger impact on the markets than a strong one - If the GDP number is much weaker than expected, it would mean that not only is the next few months expected to be weak, but it was also weak in the past 3 months.
- Even if we did see a strong GDP reading, traders are likely to ignore the good news and focus on the weak outlook for the US economy (GDP is a lagging indicator).
- Traders seem to be ignoring good news for the USD in recent sessions. (Repeat: 10/20 04:34 EUR/USD: TTN analysis: Forex market ignores the good news in Philly Fed; Some say we could see greater EUR/USD volatility in weeks ahead. Philly Fed data showed some good news and some bad news. The headline figure came in much worse than expected (Oct Philly Fed: -0.7 V 7.0e) but there was an improvement in outlook (6-month outlook index: 16.7 v. -0.2 prior). Some analysts are suggesting that we are in for a period of higher EUR/USD volatility due to the market accentuating its reaction to negative US data and minimizing its reaction to positive data.
- Note: Some analysts have suggested that the significant chance of a soft landing for the US economy, may stop extended speculative short positions in the USD.
- Expectations: Auto sales, along with softening residential investment spending, are predicted to have a significant on the GDP data. 10/27/2006 05:32:25

Quoting FXopportunist

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I don't see the PCE #'s listed on FF Calender.

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Quoting BurgerKing

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I
.
.
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CRAP! my Long positions all TPed.
I was scared stiff earlier with the JPY craze, I lowered my TP from 1.8950 to 1.8820 so I can escape ASAP. I did not notice GBPUSD quickly moved up when I was writing the above...
Oh well... better to bag some pips than none at all.

HINDSIGHT:
1.8820s is a Resistance Level..
1.8875 is a strong support as experienced earlier.

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Quoting BurgerKing

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NewsTraderFX was right to predict a bad GDP basing on the FOMC's non rate hike.

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