daily range Strategy | Page 7 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strategy: Daily Range Spike and Pull Back 161 replies

Daily Range Strategy 19 replies

Range/Last = range in %... help find the bug... 2 replies

How to get range of h/l on previous day's range? 1 reply

Another Daily Range Strategy GBP/USD 23 replies

Attachments: daily range Strategy
Exit Attachments

daily range Strategy

  • #121
  • Oct 26, 2006 4:07pm Oct 26, 2006 4:07pm
I have a question about "daily range" . . . say EURUSD has an average of 100-120 pips. Is this figured by just subtracting the daily low from the high and averaging a lot of days or are the retracements during the day also figured in to this calculation in some way.

In other words, are we just concerned with highs and lows, or are we dealing with the total number of pips a currency travels during the day?
  • #122
  • Oct 26, 2006 4:10pm Oct 26, 2006 4:10pm
I have attached an example of the last 5 trading days using this method for a total of 397 pips.

As I said I am not trading this method as to screen time intensive. But just as an example for others.

The home line is the London open price. Line 1 is set 20 pips above open and Line 2, 20 pips below London open.

No fancy formating just information.

Hope helps for anyone wanting to look at this method.

Cheers
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Trade examples.doc   313 KB | 984 downloads
  • #123
  • Oct 26, 2006 4:24pm Oct 26, 2006 4:24pm
Ikholod,

As for draw down assume 4 total losing trades which would be equal to 4 x 60 = 240. Thats for a bad day, assume 4 bad trading days in a row = 960.

4 bad trading days in a row did not happen whilst testing, 4 completly bad trades in a row, no profit collected, did not happen in my testing either. But I did have bad days. If I was to look at August and this was a bad month - 160 pips loss was the worst day and that was double of the next bad day for this month.

No more than two consecutive losing days.

I think the assumtions above are very worst case scenario. What I tested didn't come close to this much drawdown.

Worst draw down for August was 220.

Cheers
  • #124
  • Oct 26, 2006 4:44pm Oct 26, 2006 4:44pm
Quoting max77
I also have started a demo test with this strategy, with a slight variation, and these are my results so far.

I have been substituting the 50pip rule start point with 20 pips and target is 30 pips.

i.e.

GMT + 1 (UK time approx 1.15am) price 1.8795

place long order @ 1.8815 SL 1.8785
place short order @ 1.8775 SL 1.8805

So far it has worked very well for the 4 days testing (+30 every day) but only time will tell. I am new to this forum having only just discovered it and would like to thank Micardo for his strategy and everyone else here for their input.

I'm in the UK and our clocks change from BST (british summer time) to GMT this coming weekend. Does anyone know if EST changes? My charts are all based on EST.

Thanks
yep, the states turn back the clocks an hour this weekend (most states anyway)
  • #125
  • Oct 26, 2006 10:00pm Oct 26, 2006 10:00pm
what do you guys think of taking just 10 pips on multiple lots? if we could refine this system to make it practically guarantee 10 pips a day, then we can just increase our lot sizes to take advantage, correct?. also, this would make for a good EA IMHO. OR we could also take 10 pips on 5 lots, then set TP at the previously mentioned levels for lots 6 and 7. the 10 pips profit on the 5 lots would then be our "buffer" just in case our stops on 6 and 7 are hit. IMHO doing this would reduce drawdown, BUT it might also hamper profitability as we would not be maximizing those days when the market does move in our direction. anyway, i'd really like to know what you guys think of this.
  • #126
  • Oct 26, 2006 10:05pm Oct 26, 2006 10:05pm
I have no problem with taking just 10 pips.... My only issue is what happens in this case is we need 5 good trades to breakeven on one bad trade. Thats like nearly a 85% strike rate just to break even. But by all means if we can get a garenteed (if theres such a thing) 10 pips then I would be all in.
  • #127
  • Oct 26, 2006 10:21pm Oct 26, 2006 10:21pm
...i love this method....i just stradle or OCO...55 pips for long and 35 pips for short position from 5ET(cable),always worked and i dont know why? its just probability....for 3 yrs now and made my first million like a year ago...like today i made more than 70 pips...just check your daily candlestic for today!
  • #128
  • Oct 26, 2006 11:04pm Oct 26, 2006 11:04pm
Quoting kamanda
...i love this method....i just stradle or OCO...55 pips for long and 35 pips for short position from 5ET(cable),always worked and i dont know why? its just probability....for 3 yrs now and made my first million like a year ago...like today i made more than 70 pips...just check your daily candlestic for today!
Kamanda
Why do you do 55 pips and 35 pips away why not do same amount for long or short? Did you really become a millionaire from trading this way?
  • #129
  • Oct 26, 2006 11:06pm Oct 26, 2006 11:06pm
Quoting kamanda
...i love this method....i just stradle or OCO...55 pips for long and 35 pips for short position from 5ET(cable),always worked and i dont know why? its just probability....for 3 yrs now and made my first million like a year ago...like today i made more than 70 pips...just check your daily candlestic for today!
Trailing Stop?
  • #130
  • Oct 26, 2006 11:46pm Oct 26, 2006 11:46pm
Quoting Markj
Ikholod,

As for draw down assume 4 total losing trades which would be equal to 4 x 60 = 240. Thats for a bad day, assume 4 bad trading days in a row = 960.

4 bad trading days in a row did not happen whilst testing, 4 completly bad trades in a row, no profit collected, did not happen in my testing either. But I did have bad days. If I was to look at August and this was a bad month - 160 pips loss was the worst day and that was double of the next bad day for this month.

No more than two consecutive losing days.

I think the assumtions above are very worst case scenario. What I tested didn't come close to this much drawdown.

Worst draw down for August was 220.

Cheers
Thanks for your help
  • #131
  • Oct 27, 2006 5:51am Oct 27, 2006 5:51am
Natgo,

Is this your scenario?

3 profit levels, 14, 30 and 80.

Scenario 1 Place order for 7 lots:

5 lots take profit 1 (14 pips) profit of = 70

2 lots take profit 2 and 3 (30 and 80 pips) = 110

Scenario 2 If trade moves against us after profit one hit:

5 lots taken profit 1 = 70 pips

2 lots closed out with 20 pips stop loss = - 40 pips

Still in profit after spread cost of (70 - 40 + spread 28 = 2 pips)

Scenario 3 Total loss on all 5 lots:

7 lots closed out = - 140 pips

Scenario 2 would break (approx) even after you cover spread costs.

If we look back and scenario 1 was hit 30% of the time, Scenario 2 60% of the time and scenario 3 10% per 100 trades.

Calculation:
30 trades = scenario 1 = ((30 x (5 * 14) + (30 x 30) + (30 x 80)) = wait, get calculator (70 + 900 + 2400 = 3370)
60 trades = scenario 2 = (60 x 30 = 1800)
10 trades = scenario 3 6,7 lot profit only = (10 x 2 lots of 30 = 600)

Spread cost = (100 x 7 lots = 2100)

If this is the case profit comes to ((3370 + 1800) - (600 + 2100) = 5170 -2700 = 2470 spread cost is a killer.

So we if we look back and see that profit 1 was hit 90% of the time once it broke through entry line without retracing to the London open price (10 - 1) trades then this should work assuming price moved to 80 pips above London open 30% of the time.

I guess the good thing about range strategies are they can be simple! so we don't want to complicate this (but if it works). In the end if we were to use just one order to collect profits at 14 pips assuming 90% per 100 trades = 1400 - 300 spread cost - (10% losing trades at - 20pips = 200) = 900.

I'm starting to get confused here and I wrote this. Just trying to put to paper what Natgos thought were.

Hope calculations are correct (maths was not my strongest point).

Cheers
  • #132
  • Oct 27, 2006 6:15am Oct 27, 2006 6:15am
People I ahev to say that I really like the way this is evolving. Mark your strategy sounds really good. I will do some manual backtesting on that this weekend.

You know the great thing about something like this.... It removes the bigget single hinderance that traders have..... EMOTION!!!

Once we back test these enough and we go live then it is simply a question of following the rules to the pip, if we can do that then happy days :-)
  • #133
  • Oct 27, 2006 6:30am Oct 27, 2006 6:30am
Hi Micardo,

I agree.

I really think a great outcome from this thread would be a EA with different variables suiting different risk:reward ratios.


Everyone will have different opions on how they want to trade a daily range strategy. But I think this can be a great mechanical strategy, taking out emotions etc leading to a profitable way of trading.

As for myself I do not have the screen time to trade it how I would like thats why I would love to see an EA developed with changing variables to suite as an outcome.

I do not want to change this thread from your stratgey Micardo so please let me know if you feel this is happening.

Personally I believe the best strategies do not consist of indicators, indicators and more indicators.

Would love to see other ideas for this EA as Jaroo commented, Money management to be added.

Then we need a volunteer to write the EA as programming in C is not my strong point.

Cheers
  • #134
  • Oct 27, 2006 6:47am Oct 27, 2006 6:47am
Hey Markj,

Unfortunately Programming isn't mine either....

But regarding the thread, I love the fact that everybody is contributing. No one person can be right and different people have different experiences which is why it is so important for us all to share then like you say come up with and EA to implement what we all deem to be the most profitable strategy with the right risk reward strategy.

I feel this will work once we find the right variables for the fact that non one can deny that the market has a daily range. These daily ranges aren't just random, people make the markets and for this very reason we can find a Pattern which over time is profitable.

Everyone wins and loses, if we can win bigger and more often than when we lose then we can definitely make money in this market.


Now..... any volunteers for the EA
  • #135
  • Oct 27, 2006 6:58am Oct 27, 2006 6:58am
Hi Micardo

Great thread guys! This is all looking very promising, and I would feel comfortable I think trading a strategy such as this after testing - seems to suit my trading style....

Anyhow, have you considered asking AHA in the EA Factory? Maybe you could raise the subject and see if you could PM AHA if he does not mind...

Wishing you continued success !!

Angie
  • #136
  • Oct 27, 2006 7:01am Oct 27, 2006 7:01am
Quoting kamanda
...i love this method....i just stradle or OCO...55 pips for long and 35 pips for short position from 5ET(cable),always worked and i dont know why? its just probability....for 3 yrs now and made my first million like a year ago...like today i made more than 70 pips...just check your daily candlestic for today!
kamanda, what exactly are you sayiing?

I am confused on 5ET(cable) - is that using 5am eastern time or what does that mean?

you wait 55 pips to go long and 35 pips to go short, or you only try to get that many pips?
  • #137
  • Oct 27, 2006 8:51am Oct 27, 2006 8:51am
Hey Guys,

Here's a link to an Ea that could be used for taking profits with this kind of strategy. It's on another forum:

http://strategybuilderfx.com/showthread.php?t=16297

Also, check out this thread, to get more info on how it works exactly. Check out post #40.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ighlight=trade


Also, kamanda, if you're serious, could you explain a bit about how you take your profits using that type of strategy?

Cheers,
b
  • #138
  • Oct 27, 2006 10:15am Oct 27, 2006 10:15am
OK Today's results, well you guessed it.... I got my 30 pips for the day and finished off really quite a good first week. If only every week was this simple.

I post total pip count for this week etc later tonight

How did you guys do this week?
  • #139
  • Oct 27, 2006 10:23am Oct 27, 2006 10:23am
lambert & B rock...i'm more than serious with my method and it works very well(3 yrs now) not 100% though....today & yesterday i picked up more than 100 pips from cable alone..the only pair i trade.
i only use the closing price from the previous daily candle and +/- 55 & 35...example (on thursday) the closing daily price was 1.8902 ..so i went long after 1.8902 + 55 (stradlle or OCO to make it automatic)....if you can check your daily candle from monday until today it was a very good week...and how i take profit? i always target 50 pips daily but sometime i can take even 10 depends on the day.
  • #140
  • Oct 27, 2006 10:25am Oct 27, 2006 10:25am
Quoting Micardo
OK Today's results, well you guessed it.... I got my 30 pips for the day and finished off really quite a good first week. If only every week was this simple.

I post total pip count for this week etc later tonight

How did you guys do this week?
....good job!
0 traders viewing now