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Let's Trade Options

  • #17,061
  • Dec 23, 2019 4:11pm Dec 23, 2019 4:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...taking off a slice at 20c today, looking for 40c next week
...holding on, break even + on the trade, I need SPY to move up...

Generally re: US indices you'd have to wonder if we could see some profit taking b4 year's end....I might try legging into another short spread after Xmas....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,062
  • Dec 23, 2019 4:14pm Dec 23, 2019 4:14pm
BA earnings 1/29, gonna be a bloodbath.....if it tries to rally b4 then, could be a gift for bears
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,063
  • Dec 27, 2019 12:25am Dec 27, 2019 12:25am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ...holding on, break even + on the trade, I need SPY to move up... Generally re: US indices you'd have to wonder if we could see some profit taking b4 year's end....I might try legging into another short spread after Xmas....
...cashed out the rest of em at 20c today also....no faith in any big moves Friday to cream the SPY $324 call calendar, better to take a decent gain instead of risking watching it dwindle. Pretty big volume on a 5-bagger to close the year. I am almost flat....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,064
  • Dec 27, 2019 11:51am Dec 27, 2019 11:51am
Quoting The Fool
...cashed out the rest of em at 20c today also....no faith in any big moves Friday to cream the SPY $324 call calendar, ....
...SHE WENT TO $0.35....FML...lol that's typical re: calendars, all about that endgame action, no regrets in taking a nice profit
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,065
  • Dec 28, 2019 8:20am Dec 28, 2019 8:20am
All profit from the last week was put in SPY and SPX put spreads hunting a pullback by mid-Jan, b/e around SPY $320....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,066
  • Edited 9:42pm Dec 30, 2019 2:59pm | Edited 9:42pm
Quoting The Fool
All profit from the last week was put in SPY and SPX put spreads hunting a pullback by mid-Jan, b/e around SPY $320....
legged into a Jan10 SPY put vert $315/314 .. bot $315 puts for 87c yesterday, sold $314 puts for 95c today, risk free trade....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,067
  • Dec 31, 2019 11:36pm Dec 31, 2019 11:36pm
Quoting The Fool
I love kitties. In the weeks post-ER you can find them, waiting for you in the played-out iv....NFLX iv scraping along in record low territory, next ER is Oct 12, the $80/$105 is what I shoulda played last time (did $90/$105), the P/L shown models a 15% iv rise into the ER day...maybe risk $1.50 to net out 50c to $2.50. Not great r:r, but the probability of making some kind of gain on these is very high - that's a $50 profit zone on a $90 stock, and it might be even better than that if NFLX gives better iv rush into October. This trade is for cashing...
7/26/16.....NFLX now >$320.....I should read back in the thread some more.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,068
  • Dec 31, 2019 11:42pm Dec 31, 2019 11:42pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Okay, okay, okay, so it's a little early to start diving into April setups, but with this slight uptick in volatility (and not a helluvalot that I'm interested in doing), there's no time like the present. This is the first layer of my April SPY iron condor "onion": SPY April 15th 173/177/203/207 iron condor Probability of Profit: 62% Max Profit: $102/contract Buying Power Effect: $298/contract Looking to layer these buggers on over time and then mix and match short call sides with short put sides to buy out of as a unit when decently profitable....
ZebraSquirl, hey...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,069
  • Dec 31, 2019 11:48pm Dec 31, 2019 11:48pm
Quoting goosebone
Hey Fool. I got a friend (stories are usually bullshit when they start that way but I swear I really do have friend who..) thinks he wants to play a possible tax holiday being a huge boon to AAPL stock. He told me he is considering buying outright 2 long July contracts 135 strike at 1.65 ask. I told him he should consider a vertical spread or fly centered around his target instead cuz bigger payoff for same risk (assuming he doesn't want to own 200 shares at 135 of course). Now I'm thinking it's really a calendar spread I should have been talking...
...he shoulda bot AAPL call leaps
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,070
  • Dec 31, 2019 11:52pm Dec 31, 2019 11:52pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} another test on USD/Y 119.85 bounced a little again, pull up your monthly charts on this currency and you may see why
Happy New Year, Cecil G - I see you're still around. Drop by & say hi sometime.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,071
  • Jan 1, 2020 12:32am Jan 1, 2020 12:32am
Thanks for this thread,Fool.I love options and i think the best is those that offer resale before expiry.
  • #17,072
  • Jan 1, 2020 2:11am Jan 1, 2020 2:11am
FCEL prospects are looking good, was on my radar for stock buy before this big pop in the last week. Too bad they don't have any long term options, just out to Jul '19.

You could sell 2x Feb20 $2 puts to buy 1x Jul20 $4 calls, if it slides back own the stock for $2.....I will prolly wait for a pull back at this point, ER in a couple weeks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-01-01_0005FCEL.png Size: 167 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,073
  • Jan 2, 2020 3:26pm Jan 2, 2020 3:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}legged into a Jan10 SPY put vert $315/314 .. bot $315 puts for 87c yesterday, sold $314 puts for 95c today, risk free trade....
...yep, shoulda strangled the leg-in...I usually do.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,074
  • Jan 2, 2020 4:19pm Jan 2, 2020 4:19pm
Quoting The Fool
FCEL prospects are looking good, was on my radar for stock buy before this big pop in the last week. Too bad they don't have any long term options, just out to Jul '19. You could sell 2x Feb20 $2 puts to buy 1x Jul20 $4 calls, if it slides back own the stock for $2.....I will prolly wait for a pull back at this point, ER in a couple weeks.
....OR wait a bit for the profit-taking rush to subside and she falls back to a buck, then buy some shares and hold. Trading options on shares this cheap is a bit lame....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,075
  • Jan 2, 2020 5:43pm Jan 2, 2020 5:43pm
bitcoin options, where are they...?

https://www.investopedia.com/article...in-options.asp
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,076
  • Jan 8, 2020 12:26am Jan 8, 2020 12:26am
Quoting The Fool
All profit from the last week was put in SPY and SPX put spreads hunting a pullback by mid-Jan, b/e around SPY $320....
...I am gonna make a few dimes on this outlay but I doubt these ME events will even be enough to throw us a 2% pullback....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,077
  • Jan 17, 2020 2:18pm Jan 17, 2020 2:18pm
In the following:

SPY Jan 22 331 PUT @ $0.68, should be good for a little money
  • #17,078
  • Jan 17, 2020 2:20pm Jan 17, 2020 2:20pm
Hey guys! Hope everyone had a good Christmas and safe holidays. Can't get my phone to post of FF, and just got out of the habit using the computer. But I'm going to be doing most trading back on the computer for a while, so should be able to post more.
  • #17,079
  • Jan 18, 2020 10:59am Jan 18, 2020 10:59am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....still waiting on the actual trade.. What other names have comparable debt loads worth timing? https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcoll.../#4d571714113d https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/6d...c-3ffbffe35e26 TSLA & SC debt rolled together since Tesla bought back Solar City.
My apologies for the late reply.

I believe this might have something to do with why $TSLA didn't drop off a cliff last November:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FED ADDS 82 BILLION to markets - WSJ - Jan 14 2020.png Size: 706 KB


Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised; the White House doesn't want the markets to end the year on a down note, I suppose... Still, it's a good thing I didn't take that trade.

Should we aim for March 4, 2020? Presumably even the Big Boys want to take profits eventually...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TESLA - week of 01-13-2020.png Size: 68 KB
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #17,080
  • Jan 18, 2020 3:33pm Jan 18, 2020 3:33pm
There has been a lot of unusual options activity on a company called ETSY which is a Nasdaq, Russell 2000 component.
Some longer-term call strikes are as high as 100.
Current price $51.00
One to keep an eye on.
It's a big game.
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